The last debate before the January 3rd Iowa Caucus looks like it was very interesting...I missed it, but here are the highlights from around the Web.
- The moderator was an apparent stick in the mud. She got smacked down by Fred because she kept using the "show of hands" method on so many points.
- Alan Keyes apparently hijacked the debate, big time.
- The moderator kept Huckabee from getting piled on.
- Fred actually had many good points from what I'm reading. About 80% of the AP's video highlights of the debate involved Fred Thompson.
- Duncan Hunter had a good showing, Tancredo did better than usual as well.
All in all, seems like Fred had a very good debate, and it could not have come at a better time. This is where he might be able to "turn up the juice" on his campaign. Shaun Kenney noted that this could very well be the turning point in the Thompson campaign.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Since When Did Losing Become Good Strategy?
Lowell at Raising Kaine speculates at the top of this post that it's possible that the lack of national funds into the 1st CD race from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC, I think I've got the name right, ah well I'm close enough) was a strategy to force Republicans to spend campaign money that they don't have (the Congressional GOP is actually in debt), while saving money for other races.
Also, at the same time, Dems at Raising Kaine and other blogs are SCREAMING bloody murder at the DCCC for not pumping more money into this race, as they thought it could've been a win for Phil Forgit. Even Forgit's campaign is practically saying "hey, we could've won with some money".
They totally ignore the fact that Rob Wittman was a good candidate in a solidly "red" district. Also, they also ignore the fact that money was being pumped into Ohio's 5th CD because they thought they had a better chance there...which they didn't, and I think that it was wasted money either way. All the money pumped into Ohio did not earn their candidate any more percentage points than she had received the previous year in the general election.
I think that a serious commitment from the DCCC financially would not have won this campaign for Forgit...but maybe earned him a few extra percentage points...Dems thought that they could get 43%-45% easily here...they only get 38%. They seriously underperformed by their own expectations. A good showing here would have been promising for the Dems...but the national Dems punted this election and it probably was a good thing in the end. They've got bigger fish to fry, so to speak.
The Dems who are mad at the DCCC seem to just be looking for a scapegoat, because they want to believe that Forgit would have won this race with some money. I think it would've taken a bit more than money for even a mildly moderate Dem like Forgit to win in the 1st.
Even Ben at NLS is calling the anti-DCCC sentiments from Virginia Dems "absurd".
Also, at the same time, Dems at Raising Kaine and other blogs are SCREAMING bloody murder at the DCCC for not pumping more money into this race, as they thought it could've been a win for Phil Forgit. Even Forgit's campaign is practically saying "hey, we could've won with some money".
They totally ignore the fact that Rob Wittman was a good candidate in a solidly "red" district. Also, they also ignore the fact that money was being pumped into Ohio's 5th CD because they thought they had a better chance there...which they didn't, and I think that it was wasted money either way. All the money pumped into Ohio did not earn their candidate any more percentage points than she had received the previous year in the general election.
I think that a serious commitment from the DCCC financially would not have won this campaign for Forgit...but maybe earned him a few extra percentage points...Dems thought that they could get 43%-45% easily here...they only get 38%. They seriously underperformed by their own expectations. A good showing here would have been promising for the Dems...but the national Dems punted this election and it probably was a good thing in the end. They've got bigger fish to fry, so to speak.
The Dems who are mad at the DCCC seem to just be looking for a scapegoat, because they want to believe that Forgit would have won this race with some money. I think it would've taken a bit more than money for even a mildly moderate Dem like Forgit to win in the 1st.
Even Ben at NLS is calling the anti-DCCC sentiments from Virginia Dems "absurd".
For the 3rd Time Since Election Day...
...Republitarian has wiped out all of it's posts. What's up with that, Myron? Or Dave? Or Christa?
Congratulations Rep-Elects Wittman and Latta
A good day for the Republicans, as they hold two vacant seats, including one that Democrats thought was theirs for the taking.
In Virginia, Rob Wittman handily defeated Philip Forgit and Lucky Narain by a margin of 60%-38%-2% and is the new Representative from Virginia's 1st Congressional District. Turnout was in the 19% range, which easily surpasses the turnout projects of 7-14%. Wittman won 20 of 23 cities and counties.
In Ohio, Bob Latta defeated Robin Weirauch 57%-43% to become the new Representative from Ohio's 5th Congressional District, handing Weirauch's 3rd consecutive defeat in running for this seat. Another surprisingly high number of voters, as turnout was at 23.5%, much higher than initially expected due to poor weather conditions in that region. Latta won all 16 counties within the district.
Higher turnout + Larger-than-expected GOP wins = A good sign for the Republican Party.
In Virginia, Rob Wittman handily defeated Philip Forgit and Lucky Narain by a margin of 60%-38%-2% and is the new Representative from Virginia's 1st Congressional District. Turnout was in the 19% range, which easily surpasses the turnout projects of 7-14%. Wittman won 20 of 23 cities and counties.
In Ohio, Bob Latta defeated Robin Weirauch 57%-43% to become the new Representative from Ohio's 5th Congressional District, handing Weirauch's 3rd consecutive defeat in running for this seat. Another surprisingly high number of voters, as turnout was at 23.5%, much higher than initially expected due to poor weather conditions in that region. Latta won all 16 counties within the district.
Higher turnout + Larger-than-expected GOP wins = A good sign for the Republican Party.
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Special Election Results and Reaction
Coincidentally, this is my 500th Post for Now At The Podium, let's see if we can celebrate the 500th post with a win for Podium-endorsed candidate Rob Wittman. Results courtesy of the Virginia State Board of Elections.
7:11 - First 4 precincts report, all from Spotsylvania, Wittman has early lead of 461 votes over Forgit...too bad we've got 205 precincts to go.
7:15 - 10 precincts in (they're fast this year), Wittman up by 798 votes.
7:18 - 19 precincts reporting, Wittman is already up 1392 votes, which is more than double Forgit's votes so far.
7:20 - Forgit wins his first precinct out of 25 reporting...absentee ballots in Hampton City, 18-16. Congrats.
7:25 - 46 of 209, or 22% of all precincts reporting. Wittman is up 65%-33% on Forgit, and Lucky Narain has managed to capture only 1.45% of the vote...so much for that supposedly "great GOTV effort from disgruntled Republicans" that would cause Narain to play spoiler to Wittman.
7:29 - I can't find anything on the results of Ohio's 5th CD. If you have anything, post it in the comments below.
7:33 - 34% of precincts reporting, Wittman is up 3,866 votes, the margin is 63%-35%-2% for Wittman. I'm calling this one right now so I can wrap up my day.
CONGRATULATIONS TO REPRESENTATIVE-ELECT ROB WITTMAN!!!
7:11 - First 4 precincts report, all from Spotsylvania, Wittman has early lead of 461 votes over Forgit...too bad we've got 205 precincts to go.
7:15 - 10 precincts in (they're fast this year), Wittman up by 798 votes.
7:18 - 19 precincts reporting, Wittman is already up 1392 votes, which is more than double Forgit's votes so far.
7:20 - Forgit wins his first precinct out of 25 reporting...absentee ballots in Hampton City, 18-16. Congrats.
7:25 - 46 of 209, or 22% of all precincts reporting. Wittman is up 65%-33% on Forgit, and Lucky Narain has managed to capture only 1.45% of the vote...so much for that supposedly "great GOTV effort from disgruntled Republicans" that would cause Narain to play spoiler to Wittman.
7:29 - I can't find anything on the results of Ohio's 5th CD. If you have anything, post it in the comments below.
7:33 - 34% of precincts reporting, Wittman is up 3,866 votes, the margin is 63%-35%-2% for Wittman. I'm calling this one right now so I can wrap up my day.
CONGRATULATIONS TO REPRESENTATIVE-ELECT ROB WITTMAN!!!
Special Election Update Blog
I'll post any info I come across about today's activities and news regarding the special election in the Virginia 1st Congressional District and the Ohio 5th Congressional District.
In case you've been under a rock or been away from the blogs for over a month, the candidates looking to replace to late Jo Ann Davis in VA-01 are: the Podium-endorsed Rob Wittman, Phil Forgit, and Lucky Narain. This district stretches from Prince William and Fauquier Counties in Northern Virginia, and stretches past Fredericksburg, Williamsburg, and ends at the mouth of the James River near Hampton City.
In OH-05, in the race to replace the late Paul Gillmor, Bob Latta (son of former Rep. Del Latta, who served 40 years in the House of Representatives) is running against Robin Weirauch. Weirauch lost to Gillmor by margins of 67%-33% in 2004 and 57%-43% in 2006. This district covers most of the northwestern corner of Ohio.
Both of these districts are considered "leans-conservative" districts, Virginia's district is more likely Republican than Ohio's district. Updates will come as I get them...
1:19 PM (VA-01) - Word from Virginia Virtucon is that turnout is low in Democratic-leaning precincts, but solid-to-surprising in the GOP-leaning precincts, so far. No Democratic Party poll workers or Phil Forgit signs have been spotted in Prince William County, but there are GOP poll workers and Wittman signs up all around PWC precincts.
1:34 PM (VA-01) - Comments section at Not Larry Sabato shows mixed turnout in the various precincts, but generally favors Wittman's chances and quite a few Dems have commented that Wittman should win easily because of the lack of national support for Forgit.
1:39 PM (OH-05) - The most recent polling had Latta up on Weirauch 50%-36%, but that was a few weeks ago and the sense is that the race has tightened fairly dramatically since. Both have name recognition, Weirauch from her previous runs and Latta is a State Representative from that area. The Ohio GOP seems confident in party unity behind Latta, and that they will retain the seat.
2:00 PM (VA-01) - Virginia Dem makes a plea for turnout later today, as turnout is low in Fredericksburg. On a positive note, at least Forgit signs and supporters are visible here.
2:13 PM (OH-05) - From Buckeye State Blog, turnout is predicted to be in the 20-25% range, but rainy spots in the district and generally cold weather may push turnout below 20%. As Ohio Goes reports that Fox News has acknowledged Weirauch as the frontrunner.
3:04 PM (OH-05) - Reading an article on this race at the Wall Street Journal. This is a race based on the economy more than anything. It should be noted that while Gillmor won this district by 14% in 2006, Sherrod Brown carried this district rather easily as well in his successful bid for the U.S. Senate.
3:27 PM (VA-01) - The Dems over at Raising Kaine are putting on their best face, but don't seem overly exciting about Forgit's chances. The tone of the original post is typical gung-ho Dem fare, but the comments are a bit less excited in nature as they had been in the days and weeks leading up to today's election.
4:25 PM (VA-01) - The Shad Plank notes two things about today's election so far. First, at 2 PM, turnout was at 14.5% in James City County, which isn't a high number but is higher than what many expected for today, especially with 5 hours left before the polls close. The other notable point is that turnout seems to be higher in the areas closer to the Chesapeake Bay. Other sites are reporting heavier turnout in GOP-leaning areas like Stafford.
6:35 PM (VA-01) More from the Shad Plank. A surprising amount of high school and college students are voting (at least in York County), and the low turnout should make the hand-counting of ballots a faster process. Also, in Williamsburg they are expecting turnout figures similar to last month's general election, and James City County is also expecting much higher-than-anticipated turnout. We've been seeing a mixed bag of turnout results, but it seems the Williamsburg and Stafford precincts are seeing higher turnout, as well as the precincts in counties closer to the bay.
6:47 PM (VA-01) Ben at Not Larry Sabato calls it for Wittman at 4:53 pm, over 2 hours before the polls close. A few Dems spit some venom, others were expecting this result anyway.
7:00 PM (OH-05) From Cleveland.com, they expect that between distracted Christmas-shoppers voting, more energized Dem grassroots, and a GOP candidate that faced a much more vicious primary challenge, that OH-05 may elect it's first Democrat in over 70 years. However, their 3 scenarios are as follows...Latta wins narrowly, Weirauch wins narrowly, or Latta wins handily. No "wins handily" scenario for the Democrat.
In case you've been under a rock or been away from the blogs for over a month, the candidates looking to replace to late Jo Ann Davis in VA-01 are: the Podium-endorsed Rob Wittman, Phil Forgit, and Lucky Narain. This district stretches from Prince William and Fauquier Counties in Northern Virginia, and stretches past Fredericksburg, Williamsburg, and ends at the mouth of the James River near Hampton City.
In OH-05, in the race to replace the late Paul Gillmor, Bob Latta (son of former Rep. Del Latta, who served 40 years in the House of Representatives) is running against Robin Weirauch. Weirauch lost to Gillmor by margins of 67%-33% in 2004 and 57%-43% in 2006. This district covers most of the northwestern corner of Ohio.
Both of these districts are considered "leans-conservative" districts, Virginia's district is more likely Republican than Ohio's district. Updates will come as I get them...
1:19 PM (VA-01) - Word from Virginia Virtucon is that turnout is low in Democratic-leaning precincts, but solid-to-surprising in the GOP-leaning precincts, so far. No Democratic Party poll workers or Phil Forgit signs have been spotted in Prince William County, but there are GOP poll workers and Wittman signs up all around PWC precincts.
1:34 PM (VA-01) - Comments section at Not Larry Sabato shows mixed turnout in the various precincts, but generally favors Wittman's chances and quite a few Dems have commented that Wittman should win easily because of the lack of national support for Forgit.
1:39 PM (OH-05) - The most recent polling had Latta up on Weirauch 50%-36%, but that was a few weeks ago and the sense is that the race has tightened fairly dramatically since. Both have name recognition, Weirauch from her previous runs and Latta is a State Representative from that area. The Ohio GOP seems confident in party unity behind Latta, and that they will retain the seat.
2:00 PM (VA-01) - Virginia Dem makes a plea for turnout later today, as turnout is low in Fredericksburg. On a positive note, at least Forgit signs and supporters are visible here.
2:13 PM (OH-05) - From Buckeye State Blog, turnout is predicted to be in the 20-25% range, but rainy spots in the district and generally cold weather may push turnout below 20%. As Ohio Goes reports that Fox News has acknowledged Weirauch as the frontrunner.
3:04 PM (OH-05) - Reading an article on this race at the Wall Street Journal. This is a race based on the economy more than anything. It should be noted that while Gillmor won this district by 14% in 2006, Sherrod Brown carried this district rather easily as well in his successful bid for the U.S. Senate.
3:27 PM (VA-01) - The Dems over at Raising Kaine are putting on their best face, but don't seem overly exciting about Forgit's chances. The tone of the original post is typical gung-ho Dem fare, but the comments are a bit less excited in nature as they had been in the days and weeks leading up to today's election.
4:25 PM (VA-01) - The Shad Plank notes two things about today's election so far. First, at 2 PM, turnout was at 14.5% in James City County, which isn't a high number but is higher than what many expected for today, especially with 5 hours left before the polls close. The other notable point is that turnout seems to be higher in the areas closer to the Chesapeake Bay. Other sites are reporting heavier turnout in GOP-leaning areas like Stafford.
6:35 PM (VA-01) More from the Shad Plank. A surprising amount of high school and college students are voting (at least in York County), and the low turnout should make the hand-counting of ballots a faster process. Also, in Williamsburg they are expecting turnout figures similar to last month's general election, and James City County is also expecting much higher-than-anticipated turnout. We've been seeing a mixed bag of turnout results, but it seems the Williamsburg and Stafford precincts are seeing higher turnout, as well as the precincts in counties closer to the bay.
6:47 PM (VA-01) Ben at Not Larry Sabato calls it for Wittman at 4:53 pm, over 2 hours before the polls close. A few Dems spit some venom, others were expecting this result anyway.
7:00 PM (OH-05) From Cleveland.com, they expect that between distracted Christmas-shoppers voting, more energized Dem grassroots, and a GOP candidate that faced a much more vicious primary challenge, that OH-05 may elect it's first Democrat in over 70 years. However, their 3 scenarios are as follows...Latta wins narrowly, Weirauch wins narrowly, or Latta wins handily. No "wins handily" scenario for the Democrat.
"Extreme Makeover: Home Edition" Visits Virginia
I spent this past weekend down in Buckingham County, Virginia (just off Route 15 in New Canton, to be exact, less than 10 minutes north of Dillwyn and 45 minutes from Farmville). Our family was visiting my wife's father (my father-in-law), and we happened to visit some old friends of my father-in-law.
Turns out that one of the sons of this friend is in construction, and was part of a major project last week.
He and the rest of his company were part of the building of a new house for a National Guardsman from Rice, Virginia...only a few minutes south of Farmville. This new house was courtesy of the popular TV show "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition". The soldier is Spc. Michael Lucas. He, his wife, and his two children watched the bus driver "move that bus" yesterday, and have their new home revealed to them.
Lucas had been building a home for his family on a piece of land he acquired, but construction was stopped when he was mobilized. It also means a lot for the Lucas family, who not only had to deal with the struggles that come with having a mother or father in the military, but Lucas's younger son has been diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder.
This particular episode is set to air in late February/early March, which is during the next round of "sweeps", so expect heavy advertising for this episode amongst others in national ads.
It's very good to see people come together as part of a local community and work towards providing something for deserving members of society, an American soldier and his family.
Turns out that one of the sons of this friend is in construction, and was part of a major project last week.
He and the rest of his company were part of the building of a new house for a National Guardsman from Rice, Virginia...only a few minutes south of Farmville. This new house was courtesy of the popular TV show "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition". The soldier is Spc. Michael Lucas. He, his wife, and his two children watched the bus driver "move that bus" yesterday, and have their new home revealed to them.
Lucas had been building a home for his family on a piece of land he acquired, but construction was stopped when he was mobilized. It also means a lot for the Lucas family, who not only had to deal with the struggles that come with having a mother or father in the military, but Lucas's younger son has been diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder.
This particular episode is set to air in late February/early March, which is during the next round of "sweeps", so expect heavy advertising for this episode amongst others in national ads.
It's very good to see people come together as part of a local community and work towards providing something for deserving members of society, an American soldier and his family.
Huckabee Thin on Foreign Policy
In a world where our foreign policy is one of our nation's keys to success, Mike Huckabee seems to be a bit lean on answers to handling foreign relations, as evidenced in an NRO article yesterday.
Mike Huckabee’s extraordinary rise in the polls means he deserves to be taken seriously as a presidential candidate in a way he hasn’t been all year long. Serious candidates have well-formulated views on foreign policy. What are Huckabee’s?
He hasn’t been asked about them much — reporters prefer to inquire after his views on evolution—but Don Imus, on his resurrected radio show, queried Huckabee the other day about his foreign-policy experience. Huckabee not so humbly invoked Ronald Reagan, who also, according to the former Arkansas governor, ascended to the presidency with no foreign-policy experience. As Powerline’s Paul Mirengoff has pointed out, this is — to say the least — an inapt analogy. Ronald Reagan lived and breathed the global fight with the Soviet Union for decades, and had been an important voice on the right on foreign policy long before he was president.
Mike Huckabee, by contrast, cut his teeth on typical state-level fare in Arkansas and on weight-loss and wellness programs. This is probably why he felt compelled to quip to Imus, “And the ultimate thing is, I may not be the expert that some people are on foreign policy, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.” (Powerline also points out that he used the exact same line on Imus a year earlier when foreign policy came up.) This won’t do.
Huckabee did give a long speech on foreign policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in September. It combined a superficial rendering of conventional foreign-policy wisdom — which of course included many unfair criticisms of President Bush — with Huckabee’s inimitable folksy delivery. The former governor’s bottom line was that we should be nicer to other countries.
Huckabee has been pretty lean on the foreign policy side of things. He will either need to hire a strong foreign policy adviser or start reading up on his own plans. Huckabee does not seem to have a real plan for America in regards to the rest of the world, and given the current state of things in the rest of the world, that does not bode well for America.
Huckabee better start giving us more than a friendly smile, folksy demeanor, the Fair Tax, and his belief in God if he wants to be President.
Mike Huckabee’s extraordinary rise in the polls means he deserves to be taken seriously as a presidential candidate in a way he hasn’t been all year long. Serious candidates have well-formulated views on foreign policy. What are Huckabee’s?
He hasn’t been asked about them much — reporters prefer to inquire after his views on evolution—but Don Imus, on his resurrected radio show, queried Huckabee the other day about his foreign-policy experience. Huckabee not so humbly invoked Ronald Reagan, who also, according to the former Arkansas governor, ascended to the presidency with no foreign-policy experience. As Powerline’s Paul Mirengoff has pointed out, this is — to say the least — an inapt analogy. Ronald Reagan lived and breathed the global fight with the Soviet Union for decades, and had been an important voice on the right on foreign policy long before he was president.
Mike Huckabee, by contrast, cut his teeth on typical state-level fare in Arkansas and on weight-loss and wellness programs. This is probably why he felt compelled to quip to Imus, “And the ultimate thing is, I may not be the expert that some people are on foreign policy, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.” (Powerline also points out that he used the exact same line on Imus a year earlier when foreign policy came up.) This won’t do.
Huckabee did give a long speech on foreign policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in September. It combined a superficial rendering of conventional foreign-policy wisdom — which of course included many unfair criticisms of President Bush — with Huckabee’s inimitable folksy delivery. The former governor’s bottom line was that we should be nicer to other countries.
Huckabee has been pretty lean on the foreign policy side of things. He will either need to hire a strong foreign policy adviser or start reading up on his own plans. Huckabee does not seem to have a real plan for America in regards to the rest of the world, and given the current state of things in the rest of the world, that does not bode well for America.
Huckabee better start giving us more than a friendly smile, folksy demeanor, the Fair Tax, and his belief in God if he wants to be President.
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