Three Strikes, and My Support of Mark Warner is Out

Mark Warner, the only Democrat I was endorsing for this election, has struck out with me.

I liked Warner. He's a pragmatic problem-solver for the most part, and I believe that successful businesspeople solve economic problems better than most politicians of a different career background. I also liked that he rubbed the DNC the wrong way by making a fairly bipartisan speech at a very blue lovefest in Denver because he wouldn't follow the party line and doctrine in slamming McCain and holding Obama up as a God amongst peasants.

However, he had some flaws with me that rubbed me the wrong way, and now he's hit that third strike that loses his endorsement from me.

Strike One: His lack of support for 2nd Amendment rights has always bothered me.
Strike Two: He supports the fairness doctrine, which would force many radio stations to drop any kind of a "talk" format because they would be forced to give liberal talk shows airtime, even though liberal talk shows garner next-to-nothing in the ratings.

And now...

Strike Three: He supports the "card-check" proposal, which would FORCE unionization amongst workers in all industries. My father was a unionized worker, but that was by choice. Everyone should have the choice to join a union, not be forced to do it. EVEN GEORGE-FREAKIN'-MCGOVERN IS AGAINST THIS, BUT WARNER IS FOR IT!!!

I think not. Mark Warner, you're OUT! These are 3 things I cannot truck with at one time.

Due to this, the Podium is rescinding it's endorsement of Mark Warner, and will now support Former Governor Jim Gilmore for the United States Senate, Virginia Delegation.

Enjoying the Civility

You know, Virginia Republicans (bloggers in particular) seem to have really learned something from last year's GA Primary season. The vitriol, anger, and bitter fight for control of the heart and soul of the party seems to have subsided.

Now, there seems to be a genuinely different tone about this year's Senate primary between Del. Bob Marshall (R-Prince William) and former Governor Jim Gilmore. A good example of the change in tone comes from an area that is home to one of the most bitter grassroots battles in recent memory, the SWAC-lands (Staunton/Waynesboro/Augusta County), the epicenter of last year's nasty 24th Senate District primary between Sen. Emmett Hanger and businessman Scott Sayre.

For instance, see SWAC Girl's post on Marshall-backer (and former RPV spokesman) Shaun Kenney visiting the SWAC-area GOP's Breakfast. She posts a picture of herself, Kenney, Augusta GOP Chairman Kurt Michael, and Chris Green (who you all know as Spank That Donkey). She notes in the photo's caption that 2 of them are Marshall backers (Michael and Kenney), the other 2 are Gilmore backers (herself and Green). She also states that, no matter the winner, they will back the GOP candidate.

In the comments section of the post, an anonymous poster points out the Hanger/Sayre primary...to which SWAC Girl swiftly replies "Hanger vs Sayre is over. We have moved on."

Another example of the change in primary climate is the spirited debate between the Bloggers 4 Bob Marshall and Bloggers 4 Jim Gilmore. While they debate the pros and cons of their respective candidates, the general direction is still debating their candidate versus the presumptive Democratic Party nominee, former Governor Mark Warner. This unity will help Republicans as they move beyond the primaries and into election season.

Basically, two very encouraging trends can be taken from the current GOP primary season in Virginia.
- A lack of "piss and vinegar" running through the veins of opposing sides.
- An engaged, lively, intelligent debate about the pros and cons of each candidate.

Kudos to Virginia's conservative blogosphere and the grassroots in general in really doing a superb job in promoting their respective candidates in the best manner possible.

Interesting Rasmussen Poll on Virginia Senate and Presidential Races

Virginia Virtucon posted and prognosticated about the latest from Rasmussen on the state of Virginia today. Currently, Mark Warner leads Jim Gilmore in the head-to-head Senate race matchup 53%-38%

I must note that Virtucon is dead on about the fact that Mark Warner, with all of his supposed popularity, should be doing better than 53%. Gilmore's 38%, however, isn't very good considering he is a high-profile politician in Virginia who has had plenty of national exposure.

On the immigration front, here's what Rasmussen found...

Eighty-four percent (84%) of Virginia voters believe English should be the official language of the United States. Seventy-four percent (74%) believe companies should be allowed to require employees to speak English while on the job.

In terms of election ballots, the voters are more evenly divided. Just over half (55%) believe ballots should be printed in English only, while 39% say they should printed in both English and Spanish.

So they have to speak English, but they don't have to vote in English. I'm not saying I agree or disagree with the consensus, but you'd think there would be more consistency with those poll numbers, especially on the election ballot issue.

Speaking of Virginia, here's some head-to-head matchup polling for the Presidential race from Rasmussen...

McCain 49%, Clinton 38%
McCain 45%, Obama 43%
Romney 44%, Clinton 43%
Obama 47%, Romney 41%

This is an indicator of how the independents feel. They like Obama and McCain (yes, that's stating the obvious). However, it seems that people are warming back up to McCain a lot, even in this state.

Even I'm beginning to warm back up to McCain...not enough to abandon Fred Thompson, who I think is the best candidate. However, should Fred leave the race, it's either McCain or Romney for me right now. I began to see reasons to support McCain when I saw that, during their overlapping Senate tenures, Thompson and McCain voted the same way 81% of the time.

Maybe Thompson and McCain will be running mates, given how well they've worked together in the past. Who knows.

Bob Marshall is Running for Senate, but Will I Endorse Him?

This was noted in multiple blogs today.

I'm still a bit torn between Marshall and Gilmore. The Bloggers for Marshall have done a good job courting my attention and pointing to a lot of Marshall's high points (especially here, here, and here). I waited to see if any Gilmore supporters would respond, and lately I've seen responses from Spank That Donkey (See here and here).

So, who am I going to endorse? The former Governor and Presidential Candidate, or the 13th District Delegate from Prince William County?

I'm going to allow the debate to continue on...but I'll make my own decision by the end of the week.

RWL: Making the Case Clearer on Marshall vs. Gilmore

In response to my post that was attempting to weigh the differences between Jim Gilmore and Bob Marshall for Senate, D.J. McGuire made his own post to provide some perspective and make the case for Marshall...and to reassure me on a few issues with regards to Marshall.

Greg B. over at Whackjob will hate me for this (lol), but Marshall is definitely appearing to be the better pick overall.

Whats interesting is that, given his generally anti-tax and socially conservative viewpoints, Spank That Donkey hasn't come out in favor of Jim Gilmore...and actually threw a bit of criticism my way for leaning towards Marshall.

D.J. and Shaun Kenney have made very good cases for Bob Marshall, and that is why I'm definitely leaning towards Marshall. I'm waiting for someone to make the argument for Gilmore, but it doesn't seem like anyone has really given me an argument beyond "he was Governor and won votes in NoVa."

If someone can make a convincing argument for Gilmore, I would be open to listen to it. However, the more I hear about Marshall beyond the Marriage Amendment (my one source of disagreement with Marshall), the more I like him.

Breaking It Down: Bob Marshall vs. Jim Gilmore

In last night's New Year's Whacktacular with Johnny Camacho and members of the DWJ gang, I mentioned that I was split on the Senate race, but slightly preferred Bob Marshall over Jim Gilmore (which blew Whackjob's mind, given Marshall's anti-gay marriage stance). It got me thinking about exactly why I'm starting to side with Marshall over Gilmore, despite Marshall being a bit too socially conservative for my taste.

So, let's see if I can sort this out in my own mind...through this blog. Anyone who has anything to add can leave a comment, I'm still undecided as of right now.

Gilmore isn't a bad guy, he simply has a lot of baggage that he carries with him due to the shape the state economy was in towards the end of his tenure as Governor. He never did quite make it on that car tax promise (although, he did try very hard, I give him credit), and there is mixed sentiments statewide about the Standards of Learning (SOL) tests, despite the fact that scores increased throughout Gilmore's term because of his emphasis on improving education.

However, we also have to look at who Gilmore is likely to face...Mark Warner. Warner can simply pull out the "I fixed Gilmore's economic mess" card (no matter how exactly true that is) and boom...there goes the independent voters.

Although, hindsight tells us that the Virginia economy was not nearly as bad as it seemed to be (or was made out to be), it is still stuck in the minds of many voters that things were nearly catastrophic until Warner "saved the day" (so it is portrayed).

However, Gilmore is very knowledgeable on security issues, especially during his time as head of the Gilmore Commission...this does play well for Gilmore's stance with me.

Marshall, despite my disagreements with him on social issues (I voted against Marshall/Newman), there are several upsides to having him as the candidate. His biggest being that he is a tried and true fiscal conservative, and he's fairly pragmatic about it. In the end, if you're strong on fiscal prudence, you win with me. He's been a voice of cost-cutting in a sea of seemingly-endless spending increases under Governors Gilmore, Warner, and Kaine.

His "no-confidence resolution" towards Republican leadership earlier this year brought him lots of attention and praise from the grassroots. He's been an active opponent of the Abuser Fees, as well.

One must also think that, with Marshall/Newman being approved with 57% of the vote in a Democratic wave election, Marshall could get the attention of many swing voters.

I'd also imagine, however, that there might be a large turnout against Marshall from the GLBT community because of that amendment.

Then again, Marshall and I are both from Takoma Park, Maryland. Hometown boys gotta stick together, right... ;)

In the end, I'm just not sure...right now, I prefer Marshall for his fiscal stances and the one "X" factor he has over Gilmore...fresh blood for the National GOP. If Marshall puts social issues on the back burner and makes the economy and taxes his M.O. (as he has done lately), Marshall might make for a more appealing candidate than Gilmore.

What do you think?

Warner vs. Gilmore Discussion

Chris Graham and I are bouncing thoughts back and forth on Saxman, Gilmore, Mark Warner, and the upcoming Senate election in the comments section of Graham's article at The New Dominion. Graham's article speculates if a unified GOP can defeat Mark Warner.

Go comment and add to the discussion, as it seems Chris and I pretty much agree on things so far...and that's no fun :)