Early Brown/Coakley Results In, and I'm Calling It...

Current results have Brown up 53-46-1 with 57 percent of precincts in. It seems a lot of moderate and Republican districts haven't reported their results yet Thus, The Podium is calling the Massachusetts special election for the Podium-endorsed Scott Brown, who will become the newest member of the United States Senate.

I predicted on one of the Virginia blogs that the final vote would break down as follows...

Brown 52%

Coakley 47%

Kennedy 1%

Looks like I actually nailed this one :) Congratulations Senator-elect Brown!

UPDATE: 9:06 pm

Rep. Steny Hoyer (MD) stated that Brown's surge shows how upset voters are with Republicans...huh?

UPDATE: 10:16 pm

Back to 52-47-1 with 97% of precincts in, definitely one of my better calls ;)

Brown/Coakley a Statistical Dead Heat

In the latest Rasmussen Poll, Podium-endorsed Scott Brown has narrowed the gap on AG Martha "Sic 'em!" Coakley, 49%-47%, in the race for the open Massachusetts Senate seat. Last week Coakley had a 9-point advantage in this same poll. Given Rasmussen's tendency for pin-point accuracy, I'd venture to say that the momentum is all on Brown's side at this point.

This poll will be much to the dismay of the left, who have been trumpeting a poll result posted at Talking Points Memo showing Coakley up by 8 points...of course, the poll was commissioned by a liberal blog (they admit as much), so the results can be pretty well disputed.

Could this be the end of the Supermajority...?

If 2012 Elections Were Today, Obama Would Lose

Allstate/National Journal Poll just came out with the following results regarding whether or not they would elect Obama to a 2nd term...

- 50% said that they would either probably or definitely vote for someone else in 2012.
- 37% said they would "definitely" vote for someone else.
- 39% would probably or definitely vote for Obama.
- 23% said they would "definitely" vote for someone else.

These are NOT good numbers for Barry from D.C. The sentiment against him and his policies (along with the Congressional Dems, whom he supports) is growing consistently. I do believe he will probably get a few points of good will with the voters due to the Earthquake in Haiti (and watch the media talk about his response to Haiti compared to Bush and Hurricane Katrina, it will happen), but this is a downward trend that will continue as long as he tries to push through a health care bill that nobody wants and trumpet stimulus accomplishments that never happened while the unemployment rate remains in double-digits.

Americans Split on Obama's 1st Year, View Him Less Favorably

Some interesting numbers that don't look good for "Barry from D.C."...

Quinnipiac Polls...
- Quinnipiac has a poll that states that Americans are split 45%-45% on whether or not Obama's first year was a failure.
- Another poll has voters nearly tied at 35%-37% on whether or not the country would've been better off with John McCain as President (I say we would've been better off, but not by a whole lot).
- Also, according to Quinnipiac, only 41% of Americans favor Obama's economic management, as well as only 34% favor his efforts to create jobs and 35% support his handling of health care.

CBS News Polls...
- CBS News polls show that only 36% of Americans favor Obama's handling of health care. Down from 42% in December and 47% in October.
- Obama's job approval rating hit a new low for CBS News polls, at 46%.

CNN/Opinion Research Polls...
- CNN/Opinion Research has Obama's health care handling favorability rating down to 40%, down from 42% in October and way down from 57% in March.
- Also, their polls reflected that Americans are 48%-47% in favor of labeling Obama's first year as a failure.

Huge News from Massachussetts Senate Race

RWL at Virginia Virtucon and Mason Conservative have reported that Scott Brown has taken the lead from Martha Coakley in the special election to fill Ted Kennedy's U.S. Senate seat (well, it's a 1-point lead, but this is Massachusetts!). This is an amazing turn of events, and should grab the attention of the national GOP to really dive into this race and capitalize on an opportunity that they may not have known that they had.

Could this be the harbinger of a referendum against the Democratic Party come November of this year? If so, maybe the GOP has a real shot at making the Dem majority slim-to-none.

This also explains why lefty bloggers are now trying to change the Senate rules to reduce the number of votes necessary to invoke cloture...I think they know that their caucus is about to get smaller in less than 11 months.

Rasmussen Ruminations

Some interesting recent polls from Rasmussen Reports (the most accurate pollster around, in most opinions)...

- Massachussetts Senate Race: Coakley 50%, Brown 41%. This is very interesting, because one would think that a sitting Dem AG (which Coakley is) in a solidly Blue state would rabidly support a candidate from the same party as "icon" (their preference in terms, not mine), Ted Kennedy. Brown, a sitting state Senator, could make this interesting as the health care reform bill, while still slightly favored in Mass, continues to sour voters. Brown also has a 39-point lead among Independents...the problem is, Republicans/Independents combined are vastly outnumbered by Democrats in this state.

- 59% of those polled support racial profiling for airline security, and 71% believe it is necessary for proper security. Even minorities support racial profiling for airline security at 52%. A majority of Democrats also support this. I'm not sure where I fall on this, as my love for personal civil liberties and support of solid national security come in conflict here. However, this says a lot about how Americans feel we should change our methods of security. A poll also showed that 49% of Americans feel that their fellow countrymen have forgotten the impact of the 9/11 attacks.

- Generic Congressional Ballot...Republicans 44%, Democrats 35%. Also, the number of self-identified Democrats has dropped to it's lowest level in the 7 years Rasmussen has tracked this. The bigger key is that Republican support is not rising as fast as the Dems are losing it...which the GOP needs to pounce on to continue this wave through 2010 and beyond. Otherwise, they're leaving open voters to return to the Donks or go third party (hey, the Libertarians are generally a good choice, too! I'm really starting to feel the need for a 3rd party in this country)

- 55% of national voters say California should go bankrupt instead of receiving a bailout. Only 27% support bailing out the state.

- 52% of Americans disapprove of Obama's performance...39% strongly disapprove. This is compared to 48% approve and 27% strongly approve. Not good, period.