GOP Poll Bits and Bites

GOP Poll numbers...these are all over the place.

RealClearPolitics(RCP) GOP Nomination Poll Averages...
- Giuliani 25.3%, Huckabee 13.8%, McCain 13.7%, Thompson 13.2%, Romney 10.7%, Paul 4.7%.

Latest Rasmussen Reports GOP Poll...
- Huckabee 20%, Giuliani 17%, McCain 13%, Romney 13%, Thompson 10%, Paul 7%

Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll...
- Giuliani 25%, Huckabee 16%, Thompson 15%, McCain 15%, Romney 12%, Paul 4%

So Huckabee has taken over 2nd Place from Fred Thompson in the RCP Average, and leapfrogged McCain in the process, who also jumped past Fred by a slight margin. Huckabee's showing in the latest Rasmussen poll is crazy, as Giuliani has sunk to his lowest margin of support in that poll.

Going to individual states, here's the RCP averages for the key early states, and the delegates at stake...

Iowa (41 delegates)...
- Huckabee 26.6%, Romney 25.8%, Giuliani 12.0%, Thompson 10.4%, McCain 6.4%, Paul 5.0%.

New Hampshire (24 delegates)...
- Romney 34.2%, Giuliani 17.8%, McCain 16.2%, Huckabee 10.0%, Paul 6.2%, Thompson 3.2%.
McCain is posing a serious threat to Giuliani's once-solid 2nd place standing...Fred has no traction in this state.

Michigan (61 delegates)...
- Giuliani 23.7%, Romney 20.3%, Thompson 14.0%, McCain 12.3%, Huckabee 6.7%, Paul 3.7%.
Given that Romney's father was governor here and a former candidate for President, you'd think he'd be in the lead here.

Nevada (34 delegates)...
- Giuliani 28.7%, Romney 21.0%, Thompson 14.0%, McCain 9.3%, Paul 7.3%, Huckabee 5.0%
Sun Belt states will like Giuliani.

South Carolina (47 delegates)...
- Romney 19.8%, Thompson 16.8%, Giuliani 16.0%, Huckabee 13.3%, McCain 10.8%, Paul 5.8%
If Fred can get a boost somewhere here, he may snatch this state from Mitt.

Florida(114 delegates)...
- Giuliani 30.6%, Romney 15.0%, Huckabee 12.8%, Thompson 12.0%, McCain 10.8%, Paul 4.3%.
I'm a bit surprised Huckabee is ahead of Thompson, here...even more surprised that Mitt is doing as well as he is.

So, if these polls were to hold up going into Super Tuesday, things would look like this...

Giuliani - 209 delegates
Romney - 71 delegates
Huckabee - 41 delegates

So, despite Huckabee's surge, this race is still Giuliani's to lose at this point. Factor in the fact that, according to RCP, Giuliani leads big time in California (174 delegates) and is polling over 50% in New Jersey (52 delegates), suddenly Giuliani can add another 226 delegates to his column.

The other candidates have some work to do.