So my man, Fred Thompson, is out of the race officially. Between the not-so-hot finishes in Iowa and South Carolina, tending to his sick mother last week, and a mixed GOP base...I can see why things just didn't go for him this time.
Since Thompson hasn't endorsed anybody, I now have to find a new candidate to support.
Do I go with John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, or Ron Paul? Well, let me weight them out...
Mike Huckabee...while I like the idea of the FairTax, I don't think it is something that could be implemented without serious short-term economical damage. Other than that, Huckabee doesn't have much going for him with me. His record on issues isn't very sparkling when it comes to fiscal prudence, and he's heavy on the SoCon platform, which is very divisive in today's political sphere. Factor in Huckabee's lack of real ideas on the foreign policy front, and there isn't much for me to agree with as far as I've seen. Until he shows me something different, I cannot (in good faith) support Huckabee. Not with these other candidates in the field.
Ron Paul...while I like limited government and free markets, Paul strikes me as just a tad too isolationist for my tastes, especially since we're a big part of the global economy. Paul wants to pull out of Iraq immediately, even though many Dems even agree that things are now going in our favor and we can create a better situation in that region if we continue on the current course. I like libertarian ideals, but I'm a federalist at heart, and Paul and I just don't quite click enough to work.
John McCain...I respect McCain's independent streak, and I agree with him on fiscal issues (not just tax cuts, but spending cuts are necessary). He claims to have "heard the people" in regards to immigration, but that remains to be seen. McCain has the experience, the bipartisan appeal, and the intelligence to be a good leader. However, with that comes a certain amount of unpredictability about his performance. Then again, I thought McCain would've been a good leader in 2000 over George W. Bush. 50/50 shot with McCain, here.
Rudy Giuliani...The man I originally leaned towards for President until Fred Thompson came around and inspired me to endorse him. Rudy is smart on most of the issues, but has been basically repeating the same routine for about 8 months now. However, should he win Florida, the race changes dramatically. I like Rudy, and I think he'd make a pretty good leader. However, he's been dormant for so long that I don't know what to think.
Mitt Romney...Mitt appeals to me on fiscal issues, but has changed his position on various issues to move himself further to the right from where he was as a candidate for the U.S. Senate and as Governor of Massachusetts. With the economy being the top priority for the majority of voters right now, I would believe that Romney could be one of the best candidates to bring revival to the American economy, as he (along with his father) is a model of capitalist success. Another possible pick, but I'm just not sure at this point.
Do any of you have any ideas? Here's your chance to sell your candidate to me.
Showing posts with label Rudy Giuliani. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rudy Giuliani. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Friday, January 11, 2008
GOP Race: DC/Maryland/Virginia May Matter...And so Will Money
That's what David Freddoso thinks. Give it a read, this primary season is shaping up to simply be the best...primary...ever. At least for historical purposes.
As many others have said, Freddoso believes that a lot of the Huckabee vote in the South (and Giuliani vote overall) hinge on how well Fred Thompson does in South Carolina.
Also, as Freddoso points out, money may become a factor if this becomes a total national slugfest. This is where Romney's ability to self-finance and raise funds will come into play, as he will be able to sustain himself much longer than most of the other candidates.
I haven't seen fundraising numbers for Huckabee or McCain, but I do know that Giuliani is in trouble (asking for campaign workers to voluntarily stop receiving paychecks), and Fred Thompson's fundraising has picked up to the point that current fundraising challenges have had their limits increase due to the fact that donations have picked up recently.
As many others have said, Freddoso believes that a lot of the Huckabee vote in the South (and Giuliani vote overall) hinge on how well Fred Thompson does in South Carolina.
Also, as Freddoso points out, money may become a factor if this becomes a total national slugfest. This is where Romney's ability to self-finance and raise funds will come into play, as he will be able to sustain himself much longer than most of the other candidates.
I haven't seen fundraising numbers for Huckabee or McCain, but I do know that Giuliani is in trouble (asking for campaign workers to voluntarily stop receiving paychecks), and Fred Thompson's fundraising has picked up to the point that current fundraising challenges have had their limits increase due to the fact that donations have picked up recently.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
N.H. GOP Primary: McCain's Win Anti-Climactic, Romney's Still Got a Chance
Anyone else feel that John McCain's win in New Hampshire was not nearly the surprise that some have made it out to be?
Sure, he's come back from being nearly dead in the water 8 months ago. However, for about 2 weeks now, we've pretty much known that McCain would overtake Mitt Romney in New Hampshire and win. McCain has been surging for 2 months now, and is actually starting to take away Mike Huckabee's heat (thank God).
Many are already counting Mitt Romney out, but be careful about that kind of prognostication. If McCain, Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani trade victories all over the United States, Romney seems poised to come in 2nd or 3rd in all of the primaries. He still will collect plenty of delegates even if he gets mostly silver-medal finishes.
With Huckabee's popularity pretty well isolated to evangelicals and other social conservatives, and McCain being a "boom or bust" candidate whose boom or bust depends on the state, Romney could be the most consistent "delegate-collector" of all the candidates.
With the possibility of a contested convention in September, and no one candidate really breaking away to collect enough delegates to win on the first ballot, Romney may put himself into a very advantageous position by winning a few states, and getting a lot of 2nd place finishes.
Honestly, as wide open as this race is...I can definitely see the possibility that no GOP candidate reaches the magic number of 1,191 delegates by the time this thing is over.
After New Hampshire, CNN has the delegate count as follows...
Romney 30, Huckabee 21, McCain 10, Fred Thompson 6, Ron Paul 2, Giuliani 1, Duncan Hunter 1. While it's still REALLY early, we've got Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida coming up before Super Tuesday.
Fred Thompson is making his "Last Stand" in South Carolina. Smart move to hedge his bets there, as that is the next "big focus" primary, and the site of the next debate. This is his best shot to get back into this thing.
Sure, he's come back from being nearly dead in the water 8 months ago. However, for about 2 weeks now, we've pretty much known that McCain would overtake Mitt Romney in New Hampshire and win. McCain has been surging for 2 months now, and is actually starting to take away Mike Huckabee's heat (thank God).
Many are already counting Mitt Romney out, but be careful about that kind of prognostication. If McCain, Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani trade victories all over the United States, Romney seems poised to come in 2nd or 3rd in all of the primaries. He still will collect plenty of delegates even if he gets mostly silver-medal finishes.
With Huckabee's popularity pretty well isolated to evangelicals and other social conservatives, and McCain being a "boom or bust" candidate whose boom or bust depends on the state, Romney could be the most consistent "delegate-collector" of all the candidates.
With the possibility of a contested convention in September, and no one candidate really breaking away to collect enough delegates to win on the first ballot, Romney may put himself into a very advantageous position by winning a few states, and getting a lot of 2nd place finishes.
Honestly, as wide open as this race is...I can definitely see the possibility that no GOP candidate reaches the magic number of 1,191 delegates by the time this thing is over.
After New Hampshire, CNN has the delegate count as follows...
Romney 30, Huckabee 21, McCain 10, Fred Thompson 6, Ron Paul 2, Giuliani 1, Duncan Hunter 1. While it's still REALLY early, we've got Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida coming up before Super Tuesday.
Fred Thompson is making his "Last Stand" in South Carolina. Smart move to hedge his bets there, as that is the next "big focus" primary, and the site of the next debate. This is his best shot to get back into this thing.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
"New Hampshire" = "Nasty Heat" for Candidates
These were the best debates, so far. Charles Gibson did a good job moderating the debate, and the format was much more of a "debate" and less of a "question and answer" session. Kudos to ABC, and the "unity" moment of having all the candidates from both parties greet each other onstage between debates was a nice touch.
Diane Sawyer, though, really seemed out of place in the whole scheme of things. Anyway, on to my thoughts.
On the GOP side...
- Fred Thompson had an excellent debate, and even George Stephanopoulos said so in his post-debate comments. He put Romney on the spot without attacking him (and forced Romney, on one occasion, to completely waffle on a question), handled Ron Paul like nobody else has done, and had a generally good overall performance. He seemed very comfortable in this debate, was on-point with his policies, and answered questions directly. Also, I noticed that more candidates said "Yes, Senator Thompson is right..." and would go on to repeat Fred's words. That's because Fred is correct.
- Mitt Romney was attacked by everyone on stage in some way, shape, or form. I must say that Romney handled most of the criticism well, considering the bombardment of attacks from many sides, especially from John McCain. McCain, while having some good quips, seemed more intent on spitting out a "zinger", then flashing a silly grin right before they cut away from him. His performance was a bit forced, in my opinion.
- Huckabee was almost non-existant for long stretches, playing the "let them knock each other out" card. Good job by Charles Gibson not to allow that to go on forever. Giuliani had a relatively strong performance. He made his stances fairly clear, pointed to his record of law enforcement and economic turnaround in New York City, and deflecting criticism for being more liberal in his policies in the past.
- Ron Paul did a good job espousing his views, but also took more heat than normal, probably because he's a more serious threat than most of the other candidates realized. He got burned by Fred on the "money-printing/Iraq War/health care" tie-in that Paul stretched to make.
On the Dem side...
- All 4 candidates had relatively decent nights, nobody had a "bad" night. However, if anyone should come out of this looking better than before, it's Bill Richardson. He was on a much more level playing field in terms of speaking time, and made good use of it. Richardson will probably give Hillary more problems than Obama and Edwards, and Richardson appeals to the "experience" base of the Democratic Party.
- Obama is really pushing for the Independent/Republican cross-over vote. He made a point to address them as necessary to create a majority consensus for his policies. Unless someone like Huckabee gets nominated, I don't see many Republicans crossing over.
- As usual, more "anti-Republican" sentiments from the Dems than "anti-Democrat" sentiments from the GOP. In fact, the only time the GOP addressed the Dems was when they were asked to compare themselves to Barack Obama. The Dem candidates had a habit of bringing up "those horrible Republicans" when they needed a rallying point...instead of rallying around what they stand for.
- Hillary had a stronger debate than the previous few debates she took part in. However, Obama was solid and Edwards also had a stronger-than-normal debate. None of which helps her in the long run.
Diane Sawyer, though, really seemed out of place in the whole scheme of things. Anyway, on to my thoughts.
On the GOP side...
- Fred Thompson had an excellent debate, and even George Stephanopoulos said so in his post-debate comments. He put Romney on the spot without attacking him (and forced Romney, on one occasion, to completely waffle on a question), handled Ron Paul like nobody else has done, and had a generally good overall performance. He seemed very comfortable in this debate, was on-point with his policies, and answered questions directly. Also, I noticed that more candidates said "Yes, Senator Thompson is right..." and would go on to repeat Fred's words. That's because Fred is correct.
- Mitt Romney was attacked by everyone on stage in some way, shape, or form. I must say that Romney handled most of the criticism well, considering the bombardment of attacks from many sides, especially from John McCain. McCain, while having some good quips, seemed more intent on spitting out a "zinger", then flashing a silly grin right before they cut away from him. His performance was a bit forced, in my opinion.
- Huckabee was almost non-existant for long stretches, playing the "let them knock each other out" card. Good job by Charles Gibson not to allow that to go on forever. Giuliani had a relatively strong performance. He made his stances fairly clear, pointed to his record of law enforcement and economic turnaround in New York City, and deflecting criticism for being more liberal in his policies in the past.
- Ron Paul did a good job espousing his views, but also took more heat than normal, probably because he's a more serious threat than most of the other candidates realized. He got burned by Fred on the "money-printing/Iraq War/health care" tie-in that Paul stretched to make.
On the Dem side...
- All 4 candidates had relatively decent nights, nobody had a "bad" night. However, if anyone should come out of this looking better than before, it's Bill Richardson. He was on a much more level playing field in terms of speaking time, and made good use of it. Richardson will probably give Hillary more problems than Obama and Edwards, and Richardson appeals to the "experience" base of the Democratic Party.
- Obama is really pushing for the Independent/Republican cross-over vote. He made a point to address them as necessary to create a majority consensus for his policies. Unless someone like Huckabee gets nominated, I don't see many Republicans crossing over.
- As usual, more "anti-Republican" sentiments from the Dems than "anti-Democrat" sentiments from the GOP. In fact, the only time the GOP addressed the Dems was when they were asked to compare themselves to Barack Obama. The Dem candidates had a habit of bringing up "those horrible Republicans" when they needed a rallying point...instead of rallying around what they stand for.
- Hillary had a stronger debate than the previous few debates she took part in. However, Obama was solid and Edwards also had a stronger-than-normal debate. None of which helps her in the long run.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Iowa Results and Fallout
Dem Caucus
- Obama 38%, Edwards 30%, Clinton 29%, Richardson 2%
GOP Caucus
- Huckabee 34%, Romney 25%, Thompson 13%, McCain 13%, Paul 10%, Giuliani 4%, Hunter 1%
Note: Thompson edged out McCain in the number final number of votes each received, which gives Fred a third-place finish.
Last night was a spectacle to behold, really. While the GOP is smart to keep it simple and plain in their caucus (which really makes it more like a primary), it is notable that the Dems have a much more interesting way of going about their caucusing because it involves a lot more interaction and stumping by caucus-goers for their candidate.
- Clinton was destined to lose, here...but not by 9 percent. With New Hampshire a total dogfight between Obama and Clinton, Hillary has a lot of making up to do and only a few days to do it.
- Fred Thompson got the 3rd place finish that he needed to move forward with some momentum heading towards South Carolina (Fred isn't getting much in New Hampshire, and never really will). If Huckabee gets stomped in New Hampshire, that helps Fred...but also helps Mitt Romney in South Carolina. The next 2-3 weeks are key for Fred's campaign.
- Ron Paul polled a solid 10%, it will be interesting to see the effects that will have.
- Joe Biden and Chris Dodd both have dropped out of the running for the Dem nomination. Somewhere, Johnny Camacho is weeping gently over a piece of Biden's hairplugs.
- ABC has dropped Duncan Hunter, Mike Gravel, and Dennis Kucinich from Saturday night's GOP and Dem debates. The reason was due to the fact that none of the 3 met any of the requirements to debate. There are 3 requirements, and a candidate must reach one...those requirements are: Finishing 4th or better in Iowa, poll 5 percent or better in New Hampshire, or poll 5 percent or better in one of the major national surveys. This, combined with the dropouts of Biden and Dodd, leave 4 Democrats and 6 Republicans to debate on Saturday.
- Obama 38%, Edwards 30%, Clinton 29%, Richardson 2%
GOP Caucus
- Huckabee 34%, Romney 25%, Thompson 13%, McCain 13%, Paul 10%, Giuliani 4%, Hunter 1%
Note: Thompson edged out McCain in the number final number of votes each received, which gives Fred a third-place finish.
Last night was a spectacle to behold, really. While the GOP is smart to keep it simple and plain in their caucus (which really makes it more like a primary), it is notable that the Dems have a much more interesting way of going about their caucusing because it involves a lot more interaction and stumping by caucus-goers for their candidate.
- Clinton was destined to lose, here...but not by 9 percent. With New Hampshire a total dogfight between Obama and Clinton, Hillary has a lot of making up to do and only a few days to do it.
- Fred Thompson got the 3rd place finish that he needed to move forward with some momentum heading towards South Carolina (Fred isn't getting much in New Hampshire, and never really will). If Huckabee gets stomped in New Hampshire, that helps Fred...but also helps Mitt Romney in South Carolina. The next 2-3 weeks are key for Fred's campaign.
- Ron Paul polled a solid 10%, it will be interesting to see the effects that will have.
- Joe Biden and Chris Dodd both have dropped out of the running for the Dem nomination. Somewhere, Johnny Camacho is weeping gently over a piece of Biden's hairplugs.
- ABC has dropped Duncan Hunter, Mike Gravel, and Dennis Kucinich from Saturday night's GOP and Dem debates. The reason was due to the fact that none of the 3 met any of the requirements to debate. There are 3 requirements, and a candidate must reach one...those requirements are: Finishing 4th or better in Iowa, poll 5 percent or better in New Hampshire, or poll 5 percent or better in one of the major national surveys. This, combined with the dropouts of Biden and Dodd, leave 4 Democrats and 6 Republicans to debate on Saturday.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Iowa Polls: Huck and Mitt Still Lead, Fred Entrenched in 3rd Place
Courtesy of Real Clear Politics, here are the latest Iowa polls.
LA Times/Bloomberg (12/20-12/26)
- Huckabee 36%, Romney 28%, Thompson 10%, McCain 8%, Giuliani 8%, Paul 1%
Research 2000 (12/26-12/27)
- Huckabee 34%, Romney 27%, Thompson 11%, McCain 8%, Giuliani 8%, Paul 8%
Strategic Vision (12/26-12/27)
- Huckabee 29%, Romney 27%, Thompson 15%, McCain 14%, Giuliani 4%, Paul 4%
Interesting, even though all 6 candidates place in the same general order, some conclusions can be drawn from these polls.
First, while Huckabee leads in all 3, his amount of support wavers quite a bit between the 3 polls. Romney seems to have the steadiest base of support. Fred's numbers go up 4-5 points from pre-Christmas to post-Christmas. McCain has spotty, but all-over-the-place support. Giuliani has no hope in Iowa, and Ron Paul goes from 1% to 4% to 8%...which one is it?
Nonetheless, I'm coming to the conclusion that Huckabee/Romney will be a 1-2 finish either way, but the coveted 3rd spot (which candidates need to carry momentum past Iowa) should go to the now-resurgent Fred instead of John McCain, who seems to be betting on New Hampshire as his true launching point.
LA Times/Bloomberg (12/20-12/26)
- Huckabee 36%, Romney 28%, Thompson 10%, McCain 8%, Giuliani 8%, Paul 1%
Research 2000 (12/26-12/27)
- Huckabee 34%, Romney 27%, Thompson 11%, McCain 8%, Giuliani 8%, Paul 8%
Strategic Vision (12/26-12/27)
- Huckabee 29%, Romney 27%, Thompson 15%, McCain 14%, Giuliani 4%, Paul 4%
Interesting, even though all 6 candidates place in the same general order, some conclusions can be drawn from these polls.
First, while Huckabee leads in all 3, his amount of support wavers quite a bit between the 3 polls. Romney seems to have the steadiest base of support. Fred's numbers go up 4-5 points from pre-Christmas to post-Christmas. McCain has spotty, but all-over-the-place support. Giuliani has no hope in Iowa, and Ron Paul goes from 1% to 4% to 8%...which one is it?
Nonetheless, I'm coming to the conclusion that Huckabee/Romney will be a 1-2 finish either way, but the coveted 3rd spot (which candidates need to carry momentum past Iowa) should go to the now-resurgent Fred instead of John McCain, who seems to be betting on New Hampshire as his true launching point.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Romney vs. Huckabee
An article by Laura Meckler and Elizabeth Holmes at the Wall Street Journal's website discusses the difference between the two GOP frontrunners in Iowa, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.
They are very contrasting figures. Romney is a northern-bred fiscal conservative who comes from a business and political background, has a carefully polished image, and relies on many tactics of the business world (PowerPoint presentations and the like) to accentuate his points.
Huckabee, in comparison, is a southerner (born and raised) who was raised in a working class family, wears his faith on his sleeve due to his past as a Southern Baptist minister, and uses "good ol' boy" humor, southern charm, and biblical references to make his case to the public.
Interestingly enough, I can identify with both men on a personal level. I'm the son of a firefighter and grew up middle class, just like Huckabee. However, much like Mitt Romney, I am more of a northerner by birth, I tend to keep my religion to myself unless it's brought up by someone else, and I like a good suit.
While Huckabee says things in a down-home, folksy manner that appeal to the common man, Romney has experience and leadership advantages over
If asked to choose between the two, Romney would be the man I would vote for. He's produced results in the business world and the political realm by using sound fiscal prudence and intelligent decision-making skills.
Huckabee, in my opinion, has not proven himself to be a fiscally prudent executive based on his record as Governor of Arkansas and may continue to expand government, which is the opposite of the true solution. His foreign policy knowledge and stances are rather weak, as is his stances and history on illegal immigration.
But alas, outside of Iowa, I don't think the Huckster's momentum will carry him to many more victories. Between Romney and Giuliani's strength in other states, and the resurgence of John McCain and Fred Thompson, Huckabee needs some meat behind his campaign talk...relying on religion and the FairTax alone does not make one a qualified candidate, in my opinion.
They are very contrasting figures. Romney is a northern-bred fiscal conservative who comes from a business and political background, has a carefully polished image, and relies on many tactics of the business world (PowerPoint presentations and the like) to accentuate his points.
Huckabee, in comparison, is a southerner (born and raised) who was raised in a working class family, wears his faith on his sleeve due to his past as a Southern Baptist minister, and uses "good ol' boy" humor, southern charm, and biblical references to make his case to the public.
Interestingly enough, I can identify with both men on a personal level. I'm the son of a firefighter and grew up middle class, just like Huckabee. However, much like Mitt Romney, I am more of a northerner by birth, I tend to keep my religion to myself unless it's brought up by someone else, and I like a good suit.
While Huckabee says things in a down-home, folksy manner that appeal to the common man, Romney has experience and leadership advantages over
If asked to choose between the two, Romney would be the man I would vote for. He's produced results in the business world and the political realm by using sound fiscal prudence and intelligent decision-making skills.
Huckabee, in my opinion, has not proven himself to be a fiscally prudent executive based on his record as Governor of Arkansas and may continue to expand government, which is the opposite of the true solution. His foreign policy knowledge and stances are rather weak, as is his stances and history on illegal immigration.
But alas, outside of Iowa, I don't think the Huckster's momentum will carry him to many more victories. Between Romney and Giuliani's strength in other states, and the resurgence of John McCain and Fred Thompson, Huckabee needs some meat behind his campaign talk...relying on religion and the FairTax alone does not make one a qualified candidate, in my opinion.
Monday, December 24, 2007
IHT's Early Odds on the Presidential Candidates
A lot of BS being shucked around in this one, but worth a look anyway. This is the International Herald Tribune's odds on who will be the 44th President of the United States as of right now.
Hillary Clinton: 3-1
Barack Obama: 7-2
Mitt Romney: 5-1
John McCain: 8-1
Rudy Giuliani: 10-1
John Edwards: 10-1
Mike Huckabee: 12-1
Fred Thompson: 20-1
All Other Republican Party Candidates: 25-1
All Other Democratic Party Candidates: 40-1
Hillary Clinton: 3-1
Barack Obama: 7-2
Mitt Romney: 5-1
John McCain: 8-1
Rudy Giuliani: 10-1
John Edwards: 10-1
Mike Huckabee: 12-1
Fred Thompson: 20-1
All Other Republican Party Candidates: 25-1
All Other Democratic Party Candidates: 40-1
Friday, December 21, 2007
GOP Polls Gone Wild
Talk about some strange numbers, here's some of the latest out of Iowa...
Strategic Vision
- Huckabee 31%, Romney 25%, Thompson 16%, McCain 8%, Giuliani 6%, Paul 5%
American Resource Group
- Huckabee 28%, McCain 20%, Romney 17%, Giuliani 13%, Thompson 5%, Paul 4%
Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion
- Romney 28%, Huckabee 25%, Thompson 11%, McCain 7%, Paul 6%, Giuliani 5%
Rasmussen
- Huckabee 28%, Romney 27%, McCain 14%, Thompson 8%, Giuliani 8%, Paul 6%
Now, this is interesting. In some of these polls, Fred Thompson has established himself as the presumptive "bronze medal" winner, but John McCain claims that title in other polls. I've always felt that Thompson and McCain tend to draw from a similar crowd (the C-SPAN crowd). That coveted "3rd place" spot is important for momentum heading forward, as both Thompson and McCain are trying to drive their campaigns forward.
Either way, once you get past Huckabee and Romney, Iowa is a total horserace.
Two interesting notes from the American Resource Group poll. One is that 36% of caucus goers were "undecided". Another note of interest is that 98% of Romney supporters say their support is "definite", same goes for 80% of McCain supporters and 67% of Giuliani supporters. However, only 38% say the same for Huckabee. This means that anyone who will be running a solid, aggressive campaign in Iowa over the next few weeks (Fred Thompson comes to mind) might be able to break into Huckabee's seemingly impressive poll numbers.
On to South Carolina...
CNN
- Huckabee 24%, Thompson 17%, Romney 16%, Giuliani 16%, McCain 13%, Paul 11%
SurveyUSA
- Huckabee 28%, Romney 18%, McCain 16%, Thompson 15%, Giuliani 12%, "Other" 7%
Rasmussen
- Huckabee 23%, Romney 23%, Thompson 12%, McCain 12%, Giuliani 11%, Paul 5%
A lot of uncertainty in South Carolina, despite Huckabee's lead in all 3 polls. In the Rasmussen poll, only 51% of Huckabee voters were "certain" to vote for him in the primary, and Romney could only count on a certain vote from 41% of his bloc. Fred Thompson can rely on 59% of his supporters, McCain get's 55% certainty, and Giuliani 53%.
It's odd how the front-runners (Huckabee and Romney) have the least amount of certain support. The question remains, can any of the candidates behind these 2 capitalize on their shaky base of support?
Looking at the national polls...
USA Today/Gallup
- Giuliani 27%, Huckabee 16%, Thompson 14%, Romney 14%, McCain 14%, Paul 3%
Rasmussen
- Huckabee 19%, Giuliani 16%, Romney 15%, McCain 15%, Thompson 11%, Paul 6%
Reuters/Zogby
- Giuliani 23%, Huckabee 22%, Romney 16%, Thompson 13%, McCain 12%, Paul 4%
The Rasmussen Poll is crazy, as no candidate cracks 20%. The only poll where Giuliani really appears to be "the" front-runner is the USA Today/Gallup poll. He's virtually tied in the Reuters/Zogby poll and losing to the Huckster in the Rasmussen poll.
McCain and Thompson, again, seem to be battling for the same group of voters. Romney is joining those 2 on a national level, but is really fighting Huckabee and Thompson in Iowa and South Carolina.
Ron Paul keeps marching along, snagging up about 4-6% in the polls and being very loud and active with his fundraising. Those dollar bills, however, have not added up to support in the polls.
Strategic Vision
- Huckabee 31%, Romney 25%, Thompson 16%, McCain 8%, Giuliani 6%, Paul 5%
American Resource Group
- Huckabee 28%, McCain 20%, Romney 17%, Giuliani 13%, Thompson 5%, Paul 4%
Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion
- Romney 28%, Huckabee 25%, Thompson 11%, McCain 7%, Paul 6%, Giuliani 5%
Rasmussen
- Huckabee 28%, Romney 27%, McCain 14%, Thompson 8%, Giuliani 8%, Paul 6%
Now, this is interesting. In some of these polls, Fred Thompson has established himself as the presumptive "bronze medal" winner, but John McCain claims that title in other polls. I've always felt that Thompson and McCain tend to draw from a similar crowd (the C-SPAN crowd). That coveted "3rd place" spot is important for momentum heading forward, as both Thompson and McCain are trying to drive their campaigns forward.
Either way, once you get past Huckabee and Romney, Iowa is a total horserace.
Two interesting notes from the American Resource Group poll. One is that 36% of caucus goers were "undecided". Another note of interest is that 98% of Romney supporters say their support is "definite", same goes for 80% of McCain supporters and 67% of Giuliani supporters. However, only 38% say the same for Huckabee. This means that anyone who will be running a solid, aggressive campaign in Iowa over the next few weeks (Fred Thompson comes to mind) might be able to break into Huckabee's seemingly impressive poll numbers.
On to South Carolina...
CNN
- Huckabee 24%, Thompson 17%, Romney 16%, Giuliani 16%, McCain 13%, Paul 11%
SurveyUSA
- Huckabee 28%, Romney 18%, McCain 16%, Thompson 15%, Giuliani 12%, "Other" 7%
Rasmussen
- Huckabee 23%, Romney 23%, Thompson 12%, McCain 12%, Giuliani 11%, Paul 5%
A lot of uncertainty in South Carolina, despite Huckabee's lead in all 3 polls. In the Rasmussen poll, only 51% of Huckabee voters were "certain" to vote for him in the primary, and Romney could only count on a certain vote from 41% of his bloc. Fred Thompson can rely on 59% of his supporters, McCain get's 55% certainty, and Giuliani 53%.
It's odd how the front-runners (Huckabee and Romney) have the least amount of certain support. The question remains, can any of the candidates behind these 2 capitalize on their shaky base of support?
Looking at the national polls...
USA Today/Gallup
- Giuliani 27%, Huckabee 16%, Thompson 14%, Romney 14%, McCain 14%, Paul 3%
Rasmussen
- Huckabee 19%, Giuliani 16%, Romney 15%, McCain 15%, Thompson 11%, Paul 6%
Reuters/Zogby
- Giuliani 23%, Huckabee 22%, Romney 16%, Thompson 13%, McCain 12%, Paul 4%
The Rasmussen Poll is crazy, as no candidate cracks 20%. The only poll where Giuliani really appears to be "the" front-runner is the USA Today/Gallup poll. He's virtually tied in the Reuters/Zogby poll and losing to the Huckster in the Rasmussen poll.
McCain and Thompson, again, seem to be battling for the same group of voters. Romney is joining those 2 on a national level, but is really fighting Huckabee and Thompson in Iowa and South Carolina.
Ron Paul keeps marching along, snagging up about 4-6% in the polls and being very loud and active with his fundraising. Those dollar bills, however, have not added up to support in the polls.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
More Presidential Nomination News, Notes, and Insanity
- Despite an apparent wealth of grassroots and blog support in Virginia, Duncan Hunter has failed to make it onto the Virginia primary ballot. Unlike Tom Tancredo's withdrawal, this one surprised me a bit. I figured Hunter had the grassroots to make it on the ballot, and I would've signed a petition so he could at least make the ballot (of course, nobody contacted me), even though I'm a Fred Thompson supporter. I like Duncan, I think he's a decent politician and man, and I'm sorry he didn't make it onto the ballot.
- On the heels of his dropout from the GOP Presidential race, Tom Tancredo has endorsed Mitt Romney.
- No foul play suspected in the death of Dennis Kucinich's brother Perry, an autopsy will be done on Wednesday, Dec. 26th.
- From the Green Party ranks, former Democratic Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney has announced herself as a candidate for the Green Party's presidential nomination. McKinney has been elected, unelected, reelected, and re-unelected from the same Congressional seat (GA-04). Ironically, both times she was knocked out of her Congressional seat, it was in the Democratic primary (shows you her popularity).
McKinney joined the Green Party only two months ago, and is an extremely controversial (if nothing else) person. She has been accused of anti-Semitism, is a 9/11 conspiracy theorist who believes Bush was behind the 9/11 attacks, is an activist for the release of all documents related to the death of 2Pac (she introduced a bill to do this in Congress), attempted to bring about impeachment proceedings against President Bush, holds Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez in the highest regard, wants Nancy Pelosi replaced with Cindy Sheehan...oh yeah, and she was the one who punched a United States Capitol Police Officer when she attempted to re-enter the Capitol without the proper lapel pin for identification.
Yet, I don't see anything that stands with the Green Party's stances on environmentalism and decentralization...as she hasn't done much of anything on the environment and praises socialist/communist leaders. Hmm...
- John McCain is in a fight with the New York Times over an unpublished-as-of-yet story about a key telecom legislation that is currently before the Senate Commerce Committee. The story would lay out charges that McCain may have been providing special treatment to a lobbyist. The NYT is supposedly investigating the validity of the claims, but are frustrated with McCain's strong efforts to halt any and all publication of this story, as well. The lobbyist in question states that McCain has not shown any special treatment towards her.
McCain has hired high-powered attorney Bob Bennett to "stop the smears".
- Barack Obama stated that he would consider putting Republicans in his cabinet if elected President. Some of the names he mentioned: Sen. Chuck Hagel, Sen. Dick Lugar, and...California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
- Rudy Giuliani spent the night in a St. Louis hospital after suffering from flu-like symptoms. Feeling better after the overnight stay, Giuliani decided to go home for the holidays before heading back out on the campaign trail.
- On the heels of his dropout from the GOP Presidential race, Tom Tancredo has endorsed Mitt Romney.
- No foul play suspected in the death of Dennis Kucinich's brother Perry, an autopsy will be done on Wednesday, Dec. 26th.
- From the Green Party ranks, former Democratic Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney has announced herself as a candidate for the Green Party's presidential nomination. McKinney has been elected, unelected, reelected, and re-unelected from the same Congressional seat (GA-04). Ironically, both times she was knocked out of her Congressional seat, it was in the Democratic primary (shows you her popularity).
McKinney joined the Green Party only two months ago, and is an extremely controversial (if nothing else) person. She has been accused of anti-Semitism, is a 9/11 conspiracy theorist who believes Bush was behind the 9/11 attacks, is an activist for the release of all documents related to the death of 2Pac (she introduced a bill to do this in Congress), attempted to bring about impeachment proceedings against President Bush, holds Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez in the highest regard, wants Nancy Pelosi replaced with Cindy Sheehan...oh yeah, and she was the one who punched a United States Capitol Police Officer when she attempted to re-enter the Capitol without the proper lapel pin for identification.
Yet, I don't see anything that stands with the Green Party's stances on environmentalism and decentralization...as she hasn't done much of anything on the environment and praises socialist/communist leaders. Hmm...
- John McCain is in a fight with the New York Times over an unpublished-as-of-yet story about a key telecom legislation that is currently before the Senate Commerce Committee. The story would lay out charges that McCain may have been providing special treatment to a lobbyist. The NYT is supposedly investigating the validity of the claims, but are frustrated with McCain's strong efforts to halt any and all publication of this story, as well. The lobbyist in question states that McCain has not shown any special treatment towards her.
McCain has hired high-powered attorney Bob Bennett to "stop the smears".
- Barack Obama stated that he would consider putting Republicans in his cabinet if elected President. Some of the names he mentioned: Sen. Chuck Hagel, Sen. Dick Lugar, and...California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
- Rudy Giuliani spent the night in a St. Louis hospital after suffering from flu-like symptoms. Feeling better after the overnight stay, Giuliani decided to go home for the holidays before heading back out on the campaign trail.
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Rudy Giuliani Ads
It's nice to see the lighter side of candidates, as Rudy is doing in these two holiday-themed campaign ads.
"Holiday Wishes"
"Same Gift"
"Holiday Wishes"
"Same Gift"
Presidential Endorsements From VA Political Figures
Let's see who's supporting who, here.
- Gov. Tim Kaine - Barack Obama
- Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling - Mitt Romney
- A.G. Bob McDonnell - Fred Thompson
- Rep. Bobby Scott - Barack Obama
- Sen. John Warner - John McCain
- Fmr. Sen./Gov. George Allen - Fred Thompson
- Fmr. A.G. Jerry Kilgore - Rudy Giuliani
- Pat Robertson, founder of Regent University/Christian Coalition - Rudy Giuliani
- Del. Bill Howell, Speaker of the House of Delegates - Mike Huckabee
- Del. Chris Saxman - John McCain
Can anyone add to these updates?
UPDATES:
12/20 - Added Bobby Scott and Bill Howell endorsements.
- Gov. Tim Kaine - Barack Obama
- Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling - Mitt Romney
- A.G. Bob McDonnell - Fred Thompson
- Rep. Bobby Scott - Barack Obama
- Sen. John Warner - John McCain
- Fmr. Sen./Gov. George Allen - Fred Thompson
- Fmr. A.G. Jerry Kilgore - Rudy Giuliani
- Pat Robertson, founder of Regent University/Christian Coalition - Rudy Giuliani
- Del. Bill Howell, Speaker of the House of Delegates - Mike Huckabee
- Del. Chris Saxman - John McCain
Can anyone add to these updates?
UPDATES:
12/20 - Added Bobby Scott and Bill Howell endorsements.
Monday, December 17, 2007
A Contested Convention...?
A column in the Washington Times anticipates the possible spectacle of a contested Republican Convention. This being based upon the fact that there doesn't seem to be a real frontrunner, and each of the candidates could carry large numbers of delegates into the convention.
There has not been a contested presidential nomination at a convention since 1948's Republican National Convention, when Thomas Dewey finally triumphed over "The Boy Wonder of Politics" Harold E. Stassen and Robert Taft right before the 3rd ballot due to Taft's concession.
It would be interesting to see such an event, although it may mean more fragmentation within the GOP. However, having the national convention be more than a glorified coronation would be a lesson in politics for the current generation, and it would also provide infinite amounts of topics and events for us pundits.
It would also be interesting to see Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, and even Ron Paul duke it out in a convention, especially once a candidate was eliminated...it would be very interesting to see who those delegates would support.
There has not been a contested presidential nomination at a convention since 1948's Republican National Convention, when Thomas Dewey finally triumphed over "The Boy Wonder of Politics" Harold E. Stassen and Robert Taft right before the 3rd ballot due to Taft's concession.
It would be interesting to see such an event, although it may mean more fragmentation within the GOP. However, having the national convention be more than a glorified coronation would be a lesson in politics for the current generation, and it would also provide infinite amounts of topics and events for us pundits.
It would also be interesting to see Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, and even Ron Paul duke it out in a convention, especially once a candidate was eliminated...it would be very interesting to see who those delegates would support.
Friday, December 7, 2007
Comparing The Campaign Ads
Let's have some media fun, shall we?
Fred Thompson - "Revolution"
- The ad that stopped the GOP CNN/YouTube debate dead in it's tracks. It's a hammer-dropper of an ad.
Rudy Giuliani - "One Hour"
- Rudy does a good job invoking history, but the connection between that moment and Rudy is pretty vague.
Mitt Romney - "Historic Choice"
- Pretty generic stuff, really. This is where Romney's "presidential image" could work in his favor.
Chris Dodd - "White Hair"
- I liked this ad, actually, gets the point across with a slight bit of camp. One of the better ones I've seen from the Dems.
Bill Richardson - "When I Began"
- I liked the "job interview" and "resume" ads better. It was a better portrayal of his strong points.
John Edwards - "Rigged"
- Washington hates you, I love you...blech! And people say Mitt Romney looks and acts fake...
Your thoughts?
Fred Thompson - "Revolution"
- The ad that stopped the GOP CNN/YouTube debate dead in it's tracks. It's a hammer-dropper of an ad.
Rudy Giuliani - "One Hour"
- Rudy does a good job invoking history, but the connection between that moment and Rudy is pretty vague.
Mitt Romney - "Historic Choice"
- Pretty generic stuff, really. This is where Romney's "presidential image" could work in his favor.
Chris Dodd - "White Hair"
- I liked this ad, actually, gets the point across with a slight bit of camp. One of the better ones I've seen from the Dems.
Bill Richardson - "When I Began"
- I liked the "job interview" and "resume" ads better. It was a better portrayal of his strong points.
John Edwards - "Rigged"
- Washington hates you, I love you...blech! And people say Mitt Romney looks and acts fake...
Your thoughts?
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Rasmussen: South Carolina Turned Upside Down
Wow, and wow some more.
In the latest Rasmussen Polls, Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton's 13 point lead from two months ago has shrunk to 2 points over Barack Obama in the key early primary state of South Carolina. At the end of September, Hillary was up 43%-30% on Obama. As of today, her lead is now a slim margin of 36%-34%.
On the GOP side in South Carolina, whose primary is a week earlier than the Dems, Mike Huckabee has surged to 1st place with 25%, which gives the former Arkansas governor a 7 point lead over both Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, who both pulled in 18% apiece. At the end of September, Thompson led Romney by a margin of 24%-15% (and led Giuliani by 3 points, but Giuliani has also slipped 9 points in South Carolina since then), and Huckabee was in 5th place with only 3%!
With less than a month to go until the Iowa caucus, what other surprises are in store for us?
In the latest Rasmussen Polls, Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton's 13 point lead from two months ago has shrunk to 2 points over Barack Obama in the key early primary state of South Carolina. At the end of September, Hillary was up 43%-30% on Obama. As of today, her lead is now a slim margin of 36%-34%.
On the GOP side in South Carolina, whose primary is a week earlier than the Dems, Mike Huckabee has surged to 1st place with 25%, which gives the former Arkansas governor a 7 point lead over both Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, who both pulled in 18% apiece. At the end of September, Thompson led Romney by a margin of 24%-15% (and led Giuliani by 3 points, but Giuliani has also slipped 9 points in South Carolina since then), and Huckabee was in 5th place with only 3%!
With less than a month to go until the Iowa caucus, what other surprises are in store for us?
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
GOP Poll Bits and Bites
GOP Poll numbers...these are all over the place.
RealClearPolitics(RCP) GOP Nomination Poll Averages...
- Giuliani 25.3%, Huckabee 13.8%, McCain 13.7%, Thompson 13.2%, Romney 10.7%, Paul 4.7%.
Latest Rasmussen Reports GOP Poll...
- Huckabee 20%, Giuliani 17%, McCain 13%, Romney 13%, Thompson 10%, Paul 7%
Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll...
- Giuliani 25%, Huckabee 16%, Thompson 15%, McCain 15%, Romney 12%, Paul 4%
So Huckabee has taken over 2nd Place from Fred Thompson in the RCP Average, and leapfrogged McCain in the process, who also jumped past Fred by a slight margin. Huckabee's showing in the latest Rasmussen poll is crazy, as Giuliani has sunk to his lowest margin of support in that poll.
Going to individual states, here's the RCP averages for the key early states, and the delegates at stake...
Iowa (41 delegates)...
- Huckabee 26.6%, Romney 25.8%, Giuliani 12.0%, Thompson 10.4%, McCain 6.4%, Paul 5.0%.
New Hampshire (24 delegates)...
- Romney 34.2%, Giuliani 17.8%, McCain 16.2%, Huckabee 10.0%, Paul 6.2%, Thompson 3.2%.
McCain is posing a serious threat to Giuliani's once-solid 2nd place standing...Fred has no traction in this state.
Michigan (61 delegates)...
- Giuliani 23.7%, Romney 20.3%, Thompson 14.0%, McCain 12.3%, Huckabee 6.7%, Paul 3.7%.
Given that Romney's father was governor here and a former candidate for President, you'd think he'd be in the lead here.
Nevada (34 delegates)...
- Giuliani 28.7%, Romney 21.0%, Thompson 14.0%, McCain 9.3%, Paul 7.3%, Huckabee 5.0%
Sun Belt states will like Giuliani.
South Carolina (47 delegates)...
- Romney 19.8%, Thompson 16.8%, Giuliani 16.0%, Huckabee 13.3%, McCain 10.8%, Paul 5.8%
If Fred can get a boost somewhere here, he may snatch this state from Mitt.
Florida(114 delegates)...
- Giuliani 30.6%, Romney 15.0%, Huckabee 12.8%, Thompson 12.0%, McCain 10.8%, Paul 4.3%.
I'm a bit surprised Huckabee is ahead of Thompson, here...even more surprised that Mitt is doing as well as he is.
So, if these polls were to hold up going into Super Tuesday, things would look like this...
Giuliani - 209 delegates
Romney - 71 delegates
Huckabee - 41 delegates
So, despite Huckabee's surge, this race is still Giuliani's to lose at this point. Factor in the fact that, according to RCP, Giuliani leads big time in California (174 delegates) and is polling over 50% in New Jersey (52 delegates), suddenly Giuliani can add another 226 delegates to his column.
The other candidates have some work to do.
RealClearPolitics(RCP) GOP Nomination Poll Averages...
- Giuliani 25.3%, Huckabee 13.8%, McCain 13.7%, Thompson 13.2%, Romney 10.7%, Paul 4.7%.
Latest Rasmussen Reports GOP Poll...
- Huckabee 20%, Giuliani 17%, McCain 13%, Romney 13%, Thompson 10%, Paul 7%
Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll...
- Giuliani 25%, Huckabee 16%, Thompson 15%, McCain 15%, Romney 12%, Paul 4%
So Huckabee has taken over 2nd Place from Fred Thompson in the RCP Average, and leapfrogged McCain in the process, who also jumped past Fred by a slight margin. Huckabee's showing in the latest Rasmussen poll is crazy, as Giuliani has sunk to his lowest margin of support in that poll.
Going to individual states, here's the RCP averages for the key early states, and the delegates at stake...
Iowa (41 delegates)...
- Huckabee 26.6%, Romney 25.8%, Giuliani 12.0%, Thompson 10.4%, McCain 6.4%, Paul 5.0%.
New Hampshire (24 delegates)...
- Romney 34.2%, Giuliani 17.8%, McCain 16.2%, Huckabee 10.0%, Paul 6.2%, Thompson 3.2%.
McCain is posing a serious threat to Giuliani's once-solid 2nd place standing...Fred has no traction in this state.
Michigan (61 delegates)...
- Giuliani 23.7%, Romney 20.3%, Thompson 14.0%, McCain 12.3%, Huckabee 6.7%, Paul 3.7%.
Given that Romney's father was governor here and a former candidate for President, you'd think he'd be in the lead here.
Nevada (34 delegates)...
- Giuliani 28.7%, Romney 21.0%, Thompson 14.0%, McCain 9.3%, Paul 7.3%, Huckabee 5.0%
Sun Belt states will like Giuliani.
South Carolina (47 delegates)...
- Romney 19.8%, Thompson 16.8%, Giuliani 16.0%, Huckabee 13.3%, McCain 10.8%, Paul 5.8%
If Fred can get a boost somewhere here, he may snatch this state from Mitt.
Florida(114 delegates)...
- Giuliani 30.6%, Romney 15.0%, Huckabee 12.8%, Thompson 12.0%, McCain 10.8%, Paul 4.3%.
I'm a bit surprised Huckabee is ahead of Thompson, here...even more surprised that Mitt is doing as well as he is.
So, if these polls were to hold up going into Super Tuesday, things would look like this...
Giuliani - 209 delegates
Romney - 71 delegates
Huckabee - 41 delegates
So, despite Huckabee's surge, this race is still Giuliani's to lose at this point. Factor in the fact that, according to RCP, Giuliani leads big time in California (174 delegates) and is polling over 50% in New Jersey (52 delegates), suddenly Giuliani can add another 226 delegates to his column.
The other candidates have some work to do.
Monday, December 3, 2007
In Case You Missed It
Which you probably didn't, I did a "Candidate Analysis" last week on all of the candidates that are still in that race for the presidential nomination in both major parties. Here's a list and link to each of the remaining 17 candidates.
Republicans...
- Rudy Giuliani
- Fred Thompson
- Mike Huckabee
- Mitt Romney
- John McCain
- Ron Paul
- Tom Tancredo
- Duncan Hunter
- Alan Keyes
Democrats...
- Barack Obama
- Hillary Clinton
- Joe Biden
- Chris Dodd
- John Edwards
- Dennis Kucinich
- Mike Gravel
- Bill Richardson
I also added the websites for each individual candidate to their profile, so you can check them out further if you feel inclined to do so.
Republicans...
- Rudy Giuliani
- Fred Thompson
- Mike Huckabee
- Mitt Romney
- John McCain
- Ron Paul
- Tom Tancredo
- Duncan Hunter
- Alan Keyes
Democrats...
- Barack Obama
- Hillary Clinton
- Joe Biden
- Chris Dodd
- John Edwards
- Dennis Kucinich
- Mike Gravel
- Bill Richardson
I also added the websites for each individual candidate to their profile, so you can check them out further if you feel inclined to do so.
"Huckamania" Running Wild
The latest round of Rasmussen Reports polling, and the first round since the last GOP debate, has Mike Huckabee trailing Rudy Giuliani by a mere 3 points. This isn't Iowa polling, this is national polling, people.
Giuliani leads the field with 20%. Huckabee polled at 17%. Fred Thompson third with 14%, McCain at 13%, Mitt Romney down at 11%, and Ron Paul up to 7 %. No other candidate is above 2%.
I'll be completely honest with you, I can't quite comprehend why Huckabee has so much support. I get Rudy, I get Mitt, I get John McCain, I definitely get Fred Thompson...but why Huckabee?
Sure, he has a background that appeals to evangelicals and an honest "aw shucks" mentality, but beyond his social conservatism, what else is there that appeals to the GOP base? I would love for someone to explain this to me, because I find it hard to believe that there are THAT many GOP voters out there that put social issues ahead of fiscal/economical/national defense issues. Huckabee seems like a nice guy, good orator, and a decent politician...but on any issue I seem to find at least one more candidate that I prefer.
Now, I want to see what happens after Mitt Romney gives his speech on his Mormon faith. Given that Huckabee has ate into Romney's base of social conservatives, it makes this speech all the more interesting.
Giuliani leads the field with 20%. Huckabee polled at 17%. Fred Thompson third with 14%, McCain at 13%, Mitt Romney down at 11%, and Ron Paul up to 7 %. No other candidate is above 2%.
I'll be completely honest with you, I can't quite comprehend why Huckabee has so much support. I get Rudy, I get Mitt, I get John McCain, I definitely get Fred Thompson...but why Huckabee?
Sure, he has a background that appeals to evangelicals and an honest "aw shucks" mentality, but beyond his social conservatism, what else is there that appeals to the GOP base? I would love for someone to explain this to me, because I find it hard to believe that there are THAT many GOP voters out there that put social issues ahead of fiscal/economical/national defense issues. Huckabee seems like a nice guy, good orator, and a decent politician...but on any issue I seem to find at least one more candidate that I prefer.
Now, I want to see what happens after Mitt Romney gives his speech on his Mormon faith. Given that Huckabee has ate into Romney's base of social conservatives, it makes this speech all the more interesting.
Saturday, December 1, 2007
Candidate Analysis: Rudy Giuliani
Candidate: Rudy Giuliani
Party: Republican
Political Background: Former Mayor of New York City, Former United States Attorney
Campaign Website: http://www.joinrudy2008.com/
GOP Appeal: Widespread name recognition due to 9/11 leadership, has become more and more conservative over past 15 years, proposed free market solution to health care problem, mostly conservative on fiscal issues, record of lowering taxes, strong record on crime, tough national defense stance, has optimistic view reminiscent of Reagan, executive experience, record of reforms in NYC very positive, pro-free trade, "BorderStat" program to control illegal immigration similar to successful "CompStat" crime-tracking program, supports state's rights to a large degree.
Cross-over Appeal to Dems: Supports unions as long as membership is voluntary, generally moderate-to-liberal stances on abortion and homosexual rights, has endorsed Democrats in the past if they were the best candidate at the time, has no problems "reaching across the aisle" while sticking to his principles.
Cons: Unclear stance on 2nd Amendment rights, mixed record on immigration, personal issues of the past could come back to haunt him on campaign trail, does not have a lot of social conservative/evangelical support despite Pat Robertson endorsement due to liberal social viewpoints.
My Personal Thoughts: Rudy was actually my pick until Fred Thompson came along. He's been a strong leader for a long time. He has a great record on fiscal and crime issues as Mayor of NYC. He's someone that people listen to, and he draws excellent attention to his record as a whole...not just 9/11.
While he has the tag of "Hillary-slayer", I can only image how nasty that campaign would be. Especially with Giuliani's well-documented past marital issues played up against Hillary "The Cheated" Clinton. I shudder to think about the nastiness that would ensue from all of that.
I'm not totally sold on his 2nd Amendment stance, as that is a bit cloudy. His proposed policies on immigration sound nice, but his past record is mixed. Then again, as he has said, how you govern New York City is different from the entire nation. The fact that he can recognize that is a positive mark in Rudy's favor, as it shows a willingness to adjust in the interest of the common good.
The thing is, if Rudy wins, will the social conservatives come out and vote for him (or vote against the Dem candidate), or will they just stay home? Having Pat Robertson's endorsement helps, but probably not as much as it would if this scenario were playing out 10 years ago. Robertson doesn't have as much pull any more. However, it also seems that Rudy has a handle on "what I personally believe may not be what the rest of the nation believes" on social issues, and that admission also helps him.
Party: Republican
Political Background: Former Mayor of New York City, Former United States Attorney
Campaign Website: http://www.joinrudy2008.com/
GOP Appeal: Widespread name recognition due to 9/11 leadership, has become more and more conservative over past 15 years, proposed free market solution to health care problem, mostly conservative on fiscal issues, record of lowering taxes, strong record on crime, tough national defense stance, has optimistic view reminiscent of Reagan, executive experience, record of reforms in NYC very positive, pro-free trade, "BorderStat" program to control illegal immigration similar to successful "CompStat" crime-tracking program, supports state's rights to a large degree.
Cross-over Appeal to Dems: Supports unions as long as membership is voluntary, generally moderate-to-liberal stances on abortion and homosexual rights, has endorsed Democrats in the past if they were the best candidate at the time, has no problems "reaching across the aisle" while sticking to his principles.
Cons: Unclear stance on 2nd Amendment rights, mixed record on immigration, personal issues of the past could come back to haunt him on campaign trail, does not have a lot of social conservative/evangelical support despite Pat Robertson endorsement due to liberal social viewpoints.
My Personal Thoughts: Rudy was actually my pick until Fred Thompson came along. He's been a strong leader for a long time. He has a great record on fiscal and crime issues as Mayor of NYC. He's someone that people listen to, and he draws excellent attention to his record as a whole...not just 9/11.
While he has the tag of "Hillary-slayer", I can only image how nasty that campaign would be. Especially with Giuliani's well-documented past marital issues played up against Hillary "The Cheated" Clinton. I shudder to think about the nastiness that would ensue from all of that.
I'm not totally sold on his 2nd Amendment stance, as that is a bit cloudy. His proposed policies on immigration sound nice, but his past record is mixed. Then again, as he has said, how you govern New York City is different from the entire nation. The fact that he can recognize that is a positive mark in Rudy's favor, as it shows a willingness to adjust in the interest of the common good.
The thing is, if Rudy wins, will the social conservatives come out and vote for him (or vote against the Dem candidate), or will they just stay home? Having Pat Robertson's endorsement helps, but probably not as much as it would if this scenario were playing out 10 years ago. Robertson doesn't have as much pull any more. However, it also seems that Rudy has a handle on "what I personally believe may not be what the rest of the nation believes" on social issues, and that admission also helps him.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
GOP Debate Thoughts
I missed the last 25 minutes or so last night, which means I missed the planted question from Hillary Clinton's campaign that Duncan Hunter answered...however, it seems that Hunter did not seem to have a problem answering the question from the transcript I read.
A lot of liberal bloviating in the comments over at Vivian J. Paige. I'll save you the trouble of actually reading the comments, because they mostly sound like this..."Arrrgh! Republicans like guns and hate taxes...guns are bad and taxes are good, rawr!" LOL, ok, I'm just having a little fun with my misguided liberal brethren :)
As for my thoughts on the debate.
- Mitt Romney definitely took a step backward last night. He got into it with Rudy right off the bat and took it on the chin from the Fred Thompson YouTube campaign ad. He seemed to be unable to deflect criticism and looked visibly frustrated for the first time in this campaign. His YouTube ad looked like a regular campaign ad, which was a bit "against the point" for making the YouTube-style ad. Mitt fumbled a bit on the "bible" question, even though I think his answer was good, his earlier frustration carried over here.
- Fred Thompson did a great job of just "being Fred" and let his humor and intelligence show in his statements. The YouTube-style ad was great, as he went after Romney and Huckabee with their own words, which caused CNN to change from going to commercial break to continuing the debate, and prompted Fred to quip "I just wanted to give my buddies up here a little extra air time." I liked his response of "I don't have 3 programs I would cut or reform the budget on, I have over 100 programs", which was somewhat drowned out by Anderson Cooper pressing for 3 specific programs Fred would do budget cuts on. Response to Grover Norquist was EXACTLY what was needed to be said...his alliance is to the American people, not to Norquist's organization. Answer to what guns he owns was very funny.
- Rudy did a good job of deflecting criticism in a way that Romney could not. He handled Fred's criticism on the 2nd Amendment in a decent manner, where he basically admitted that New York is different from other places (no kidding). His answer on the "bible" question was excellent. His YouTube ad made me laugh with it's statement that Rudy took on New York's greatest nemesis, King Kong...lol, it was great stuff.
- Mike Huckabee did a pretty good job in this debate, as well, and may overtake Romney in Iowa after last night. However, he did fumble a bit on his response to Thompson's ad (probably the most direct ad of the night). He did display quite a bit of cool in his demeanor, and played to his strengths for most of the night.
- McCain was very measured as he has been, but he was a bit more direct and honest. His response "I never supported amnesty for illegals" drew some serious boos, but he got a LOT of cheers when he went after Ron Paul for his anti-Iraq War stance and compared Paul's stance on foreign policy as similar to American isolationist policies that contributed (in part) to the rise of Hitler and World War II. He seemed to be a bit more in agreement with Thompson on a few points.
- Tom Tancredo...not a bad YouTube ad, other than that, stick a fork in this guy. He's done as presidential candidate.
- Ron Paul didn't have his greatest debate last night, and he really needed it. In fact, his barb-trading with McCain did not help him as their pools of support overlap when it comes to social moderates. He did have his supporters out en masse last night, and it showed with the unusually timed shouts and screams to everything he said.
- Duncan Hunter had a strong performance on his key areas of military and immigration. However, due to his being a 2nd tier candidate, he didn't get the bulk of economic questions...and while he was correct in his response to Grover Norquist, he probably could have phrased his response a little better. He'll win a few more NRA votes due to the pride he took in talking about his guns. Probably would have had a stronger performance with a few more minutes of talk time.
A lot of liberal bloviating in the comments over at Vivian J. Paige. I'll save you the trouble of actually reading the comments, because they mostly sound like this..."Arrrgh! Republicans like guns and hate taxes...guns are bad and taxes are good, rawr!" LOL, ok, I'm just having a little fun with my misguided liberal brethren :)
As for my thoughts on the debate.
- Mitt Romney definitely took a step backward last night. He got into it with Rudy right off the bat and took it on the chin from the Fred Thompson YouTube campaign ad. He seemed to be unable to deflect criticism and looked visibly frustrated for the first time in this campaign. His YouTube ad looked like a regular campaign ad, which was a bit "against the point" for making the YouTube-style ad. Mitt fumbled a bit on the "bible" question, even though I think his answer was good, his earlier frustration carried over here.
- Fred Thompson did a great job of just "being Fred" and let his humor and intelligence show in his statements. The YouTube-style ad was great, as he went after Romney and Huckabee with their own words, which caused CNN to change from going to commercial break to continuing the debate, and prompted Fred to quip "I just wanted to give my buddies up here a little extra air time." I liked his response of "I don't have 3 programs I would cut or reform the budget on, I have over 100 programs", which was somewhat drowned out by Anderson Cooper pressing for 3 specific programs Fred would do budget cuts on. Response to Grover Norquist was EXACTLY what was needed to be said...his alliance is to the American people, not to Norquist's organization. Answer to what guns he owns was very funny.
- Rudy did a good job of deflecting criticism in a way that Romney could not. He handled Fred's criticism on the 2nd Amendment in a decent manner, where he basically admitted that New York is different from other places (no kidding). His answer on the "bible" question was excellent. His YouTube ad made me laugh with it's statement that Rudy took on New York's greatest nemesis, King Kong...lol, it was great stuff.
- Mike Huckabee did a pretty good job in this debate, as well, and may overtake Romney in Iowa after last night. However, he did fumble a bit on his response to Thompson's ad (probably the most direct ad of the night). He did display quite a bit of cool in his demeanor, and played to his strengths for most of the night.
- McCain was very measured as he has been, but he was a bit more direct and honest. His response "I never supported amnesty for illegals" drew some serious boos, but he got a LOT of cheers when he went after Ron Paul for his anti-Iraq War stance and compared Paul's stance on foreign policy as similar to American isolationist policies that contributed (in part) to the rise of Hitler and World War II. He seemed to be a bit more in agreement with Thompson on a few points.
- Tom Tancredo...not a bad YouTube ad, other than that, stick a fork in this guy. He's done as presidential candidate.
- Ron Paul didn't have his greatest debate last night, and he really needed it. In fact, his barb-trading with McCain did not help him as their pools of support overlap when it comes to social moderates. He did have his supporters out en masse last night, and it showed with the unusually timed shouts and screams to everything he said.
- Duncan Hunter had a strong performance on his key areas of military and immigration. However, due to his being a 2nd tier candidate, he didn't get the bulk of economic questions...and while he was correct in his response to Grover Norquist, he probably could have phrased his response a little better. He'll win a few more NRA votes due to the pride he took in talking about his guns. Probably would have had a stronger performance with a few more minutes of talk time.
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