Outgoing Gov. Tim Kaine states that "...the budget he is handing off to Gov.-elect Robert F. McDonnell, a Republican, is one he would have drafted for his own administration or for the Democratic candidate, if state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds had won the November gubernatorial election."
The difference would've been that Deeds would've readily accepted the income tax increase, McDonnell will not. Thus, Kaine is being honest that he's not putting in a tax increase to simply screw McDonnell...but he's still trying to pass off a tax increase. Period. Kaine is giving the right answer to the wrong question.
(h/t Barticles)
Showing posts with label Creigh Deeds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Creigh Deeds. Show all posts
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Cooch Wrong on Assessment of Deeds
Apparently, AG-elect Ken Cuccinelli thinks that Creigh Deeds would have won if he had moved farther to the left in his stances during the campaign. Either Cooch is trying to throw the Dems off by giving them intentionally bad advice, or he really doesn't know Virginia as well as he thinks he does.
See, the past two governors of this state have campaigned and won on being centrist as Democrats can get. Very "third way", blue dog images. Virginia is, much to the chagrin of "progressives", not nearly as "blue" as they would like to think it is. It's a reddish-purple.
Deeds, IMO, ran to the left of his pre-election image. If he was trying to run as a centrist, he would've used his more conservative views in his campaigning. Instead, he focused on wedge issues like McDonnell's social issues (which were never an issue with him as a legislator, anyway) and touted run-of-the-mill Democratic Party stances such as more progressive taxation and the like (even though he didn't come right out and say it). He did try to carry on the "Warner-Kaine Tradition", as they like to call it, and focusing on that would have HELPED him with independents, which would have given him a much better edge.
However, with the tide turning against the Democratic Party both on a statewide and national level, I don't think any Democratic Party candidate would have had a chance. Even the mighty fundraiser himself, Terry McAuliffe, wouldn't have had much of a chance...McDonnell fundraising resources that he would've been able to tap into on a national level to match McAuliffe. The national GOP was ready to push hard for McDonnell if he needed it.
(h/t Blue Virginia)
See, the past two governors of this state have campaigned and won on being centrist as Democrats can get. Very "third way", blue dog images. Virginia is, much to the chagrin of "progressives", not nearly as "blue" as they would like to think it is. It's a reddish-purple.
Deeds, IMO, ran to the left of his pre-election image. If he was trying to run as a centrist, he would've used his more conservative views in his campaigning. Instead, he focused on wedge issues like McDonnell's social issues (which were never an issue with him as a legislator, anyway) and touted run-of-the-mill Democratic Party stances such as more progressive taxation and the like (even though he didn't come right out and say it). He did try to carry on the "Warner-Kaine Tradition", as they like to call it, and focusing on that would have HELPED him with independents, which would have given him a much better edge.
However, with the tide turning against the Democratic Party both on a statewide and national level, I don't think any Democratic Party candidate would have had a chance. Even the mighty fundraiser himself, Terry McAuliffe, wouldn't have had much of a chance...McDonnell fundraising resources that he would've been able to tap into on a national level to match McAuliffe. The national GOP was ready to push hard for McDonnell if he needed it.
(h/t Blue Virginia)
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Is Kaine Insane in the Brain?
Tim Kaine claims he would have easily been reelected if he would have been able to run in November. While Kaine has had his moments of popularity in this state, he's been on a downward slide since his handling of the aftermath of the Virginia Tech shootings.
Kaine failed to live up to the promises he made to the left of the Democratic Party, and found ways to draw the ire of the state GOP. He squandered the budget and failed to get anything substantial moving on transportation. He would not have been able to rally the independents like he did in 2005, as they had grown disenchanted with both him and the Democrats.
Would Kaine have lost by the same margin as Deeds? Probably not, as he had name recognition. However, Kaine would have lost by 6-8 percent. I'm pretty sure of that. Timmy's got an awful high opinion of himself to make such a bold statement.
Kaine failed to live up to the promises he made to the left of the Democratic Party, and found ways to draw the ire of the state GOP. He squandered the budget and failed to get anything substantial moving on transportation. He would not have been able to rally the independents like he did in 2005, as they had grown disenchanted with both him and the Democrats.
Would Kaine have lost by the same margin as Deeds? Probably not, as he had name recognition. However, Kaine would have lost by 6-8 percent. I'm pretty sure of that. Timmy's got an awful high opinion of himself to make such a bold statement.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
McAuliffe Files...Dems Have a Problem
Former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe has filed his committee papers and looks to be throwing his hat into the ring as a potential Democratic Party nominee for the governor's race in 2009.
So now, you've got McAuliffe (potentially, and most likely), running against Del. Brian Moran and Sen. Creigh Deeds in the Dem primaries...meanwhile, current state Attorney General Bob McDonnell will being going unopposed for the GOP nomination.
This could create a real problem for the Democrats in this state, as now you've got a bit of a division. Moran would have had NoVa sewn up in the primary voting, but McAuliffe eats right into that base. Also, most of your Blue Dogs and rural Democrats will be going for Deeds.
The key is which one of these 3 will snatch up the vote in the Tidewater area? I believe that's going to be up to Deeds or McAuliffe, as well. Also, the Richmond/Petersburg area will be key, and I would imagine that area will lean towards McAuliffe or Deeds as well, as Moran will probably be seen as too liberal for these more conservative, albiet left-leaning, areas.
Deeds and Moran will lose votes as McAuliffe occupies the space between them on the "center-to-left" spectrum. Also, while I thought that Governor Tim Kaine might implicitly back Deeds, now you can't be so sure. Remember that McAuliffe funneled $5 million in DNC funds to Kaine when he ran in 2005, which is a record sum for a non-Presidential race. Basically, Kaine OWES McAuliffe a LOT...which will hurt Deeds in the process.
Hurting Deeds will hurt the Dem's chances with swing voters if he isn't nominated. Kaine and Mark Warner were seen as centrists, and Deeds fits that mold. However, neither Moran or McAuliffe can be classified as such. While Virginia is a purplish-blue state right now, it is still more of a Blue Dog than a Deep Blue state, and the Dems cannot afford to move too far to the left in a statewide campaign such as this.
So now, you've got McAuliffe (potentially, and most likely), running against Del. Brian Moran and Sen. Creigh Deeds in the Dem primaries...meanwhile, current state Attorney General Bob McDonnell will being going unopposed for the GOP nomination.
This could create a real problem for the Democrats in this state, as now you've got a bit of a division. Moran would have had NoVa sewn up in the primary voting, but McAuliffe eats right into that base. Also, most of your Blue Dogs and rural Democrats will be going for Deeds.
The key is which one of these 3 will snatch up the vote in the Tidewater area? I believe that's going to be up to Deeds or McAuliffe, as well. Also, the Richmond/Petersburg area will be key, and I would imagine that area will lean towards McAuliffe or Deeds as well, as Moran will probably be seen as too liberal for these more conservative, albiet left-leaning, areas.
Deeds and Moran will lose votes as McAuliffe occupies the space between them on the "center-to-left" spectrum. Also, while I thought that Governor Tim Kaine might implicitly back Deeds, now you can't be so sure. Remember that McAuliffe funneled $5 million in DNC funds to Kaine when he ran in 2005, which is a record sum for a non-Presidential race. Basically, Kaine OWES McAuliffe a LOT...which will hurt Deeds in the process.
Hurting Deeds will hurt the Dem's chances with swing voters if he isn't nominated. Kaine and Mark Warner were seen as centrists, and Deeds fits that mold. However, neither Moran or McAuliffe can be classified as such. While Virginia is a purplish-blue state right now, it is still more of a Blue Dog than a Deep Blue state, and the Dems cannot afford to move too far to the left in a statewide campaign such as this.
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Virginia Democrats Winners and Losers of 2007
Winners...
The DPVA
They were motivated, organized, and took back the State Senate. They also gained seats in the House of Delegates and put together some great grassroots efforts in quite a few races. They made serious inroads in the Tidewater region as well as continued their efforts to solidify Northern Virginia, epsecially Fairfax County, as "blue" territory.
Sen. Creigh Deeds
Another good year for Mr. Deeds, who supports nonpartisan redistricting (much to the chagrin of Senate majority leaders), continues to hold his State Senate district despite being surrounded in a sea of "red" districts, and has already staked his claim as THE candidate for Governor in 2009.
Former Gov. Mark Warner
He announces a run for Senate, and is the presumptive favorite already. While Warner will have to answer questions about his record (such as his record of tax increases), Warner is by far the best candidate the Dems have put up to run for Senate in the past 2 decades...in comparison, Jim Webb won last year due to "macaca", and Chuck Robb took advantage of a GOP split in support to win in 1994. Warner, unlike Webb and Robb, should be the first Dem Senate candidate that can win without controversy on his opponent's side.
Losers...
The DPVA
While taking back the State Senate, they did not quite make the gains in the House of Delegates that they thought they would, and they only made inroads in the Tidewater area...however, central Virginia and the Valley (Creigh Deeds the exception) remain GOP strongholds. Also, a "NoVa vs. RoVa" split has reared it's ugly head, and if we see Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds face off in a primary for Governor, things can only get worse for that split.
Pro-Illegal Alien Democrats
In fact, you did not hear much in the way of opposition from Democratic politicians to the movement to enforce immigration laws on a local level due to the popular support throughout the state for this movement. In Prince William County, which is the biggest focal point of the immigration debate in Virginia, it was pro-immigration enforcement candidates that won election/re-election.
Grassroots Outside NoVa/Tidewater
Connie Brennan, Michael Breiner, Eric Ferguson, Carolyn Frank...these were all candidates that were supposed to push forward a blue-ward shift in areas like The Valley, Central Virginia, and Roanoke/Salem. None of these candidates won. Ferguson was the odds-on favorite and lost due to excellent grassroots work on the GOP side, Frank never had a campaign, Breiner faced candidate (Ralph Smith) who knocked off an incumbent (Brandon Bell) in a narrowly contested GOP primary and lost. Brennan never got any traction on the ground against Watt Abbitt. All of these candidates had problems with getting going with the grassroots, and it seems that in many areas outside of NoVa and the Tidewater region, the Dem grassroots just can't provide any push.
Push...
Governor Tim Kaine
The Gov scored well this year in his post-Va Tech leadership, raising his national profile by becoming a vocal support of Barack Obama's, and in attempting to put together a somewhat fiscally prudent budget, without tax increases, in the face of a revenue shortfall. However, his narrowing of abuser fees to Virginia drivers only, general misery on the transportation front, conflicting with harder-left Dems on taxes, and going back on a campaign promise by drawing from the transportation fund to cover budget expenses has made this a 50/50 year for the Governor.
The DPVA
They were motivated, organized, and took back the State Senate. They also gained seats in the House of Delegates and put together some great grassroots efforts in quite a few races. They made serious inroads in the Tidewater region as well as continued their efforts to solidify Northern Virginia, epsecially Fairfax County, as "blue" territory.
Sen. Creigh Deeds
Another good year for Mr. Deeds, who supports nonpartisan redistricting (much to the chagrin of Senate majority leaders), continues to hold his State Senate district despite being surrounded in a sea of "red" districts, and has already staked his claim as THE candidate for Governor in 2009.
Former Gov. Mark Warner
He announces a run for Senate, and is the presumptive favorite already. While Warner will have to answer questions about his record (such as his record of tax increases), Warner is by far the best candidate the Dems have put up to run for Senate in the past 2 decades...in comparison, Jim Webb won last year due to "macaca", and Chuck Robb took advantage of a GOP split in support to win in 1994. Warner, unlike Webb and Robb, should be the first Dem Senate candidate that can win without controversy on his opponent's side.
Losers...
The DPVA
While taking back the State Senate, they did not quite make the gains in the House of Delegates that they thought they would, and they only made inroads in the Tidewater area...however, central Virginia and the Valley (Creigh Deeds the exception) remain GOP strongholds. Also, a "NoVa vs. RoVa" split has reared it's ugly head, and if we see Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds face off in a primary for Governor, things can only get worse for that split.
Pro-Illegal Alien Democrats
In fact, you did not hear much in the way of opposition from Democratic politicians to the movement to enforce immigration laws on a local level due to the popular support throughout the state for this movement. In Prince William County, which is the biggest focal point of the immigration debate in Virginia, it was pro-immigration enforcement candidates that won election/re-election.
Grassroots Outside NoVa/Tidewater
Connie Brennan, Michael Breiner, Eric Ferguson, Carolyn Frank...these were all candidates that were supposed to push forward a blue-ward shift in areas like The Valley, Central Virginia, and Roanoke/Salem. None of these candidates won. Ferguson was the odds-on favorite and lost due to excellent grassroots work on the GOP side, Frank never had a campaign, Breiner faced candidate (Ralph Smith) who knocked off an incumbent (Brandon Bell) in a narrowly contested GOP primary and lost. Brennan never got any traction on the ground against Watt Abbitt. All of these candidates had problems with getting going with the grassroots, and it seems that in many areas outside of NoVa and the Tidewater region, the Dem grassroots just can't provide any push.
Push...
Governor Tim Kaine
The Gov scored well this year in his post-Va Tech leadership, raising his national profile by becoming a vocal support of Barack Obama's, and in attempting to put together a somewhat fiscally prudent budget, without tax increases, in the face of a revenue shortfall. However, his narrowing of abuser fees to Virginia drivers only, general misery on the transportation front, conflicting with harder-left Dems on taxes, and going back on a campaign promise by drawing from the transportation fund to cover budget expenses has made this a 50/50 year for the Governor.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Could Someone Help Me Decide Between Bolling and McDonnell?
Honestly, I'm not sure which Republican I like better as a gubernatorial candidate in 2009.
Right now, it looks like the two potential candidates are Attorney General Bob McDonnell and Lieutenant Governor Bob Bolling.
I know Creigh Deeds announced today, but that got me thinking about the two top names on the GOP side. I'm just not sure between Bolling and McDonnell.
Can anyone make a case for either the Lt. Gov or the AG?
Right now, it looks like the two potential candidates are Attorney General Bob McDonnell and Lieutenant Governor Bob Bolling.
I know Creigh Deeds announced today, but that got me thinking about the two top names on the GOP side. I'm just not sure between Bolling and McDonnell.
Can anyone make a case for either the Lt. Gov or the AG?
Creigh Deeds Announces Candidacy for Governor
From the welcome page at Deeds' campaign website.
We have much to celebrate here in Virginia. After six years of progressive leadership under the watch of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, our future has never been brighter. I’m running for Governor to keep Virginia the best place to live, work and raise a family…the best place for all of us to call home.
Friends and supporters from every corner of the Commonwealth say the reason we’ve been so successful these past few years is because we’ve focused on building consensus and delivering results. They’re right: the only way to keep Virginia moving forward and to tackle the challenges of the 21st Century is to continue the Warner/Kaine brand of leadership. Now that Mark Warner is running for the U.S. Senate and we’ve delivered new partners for Governor Kaine in the State Senate, I’m ready to provide that same leadership if given the privilege to serve as your next Governor.
Well, I don't know about all of that talk about the greatness of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, but I will say that Creigh Deeds is a better choice for Virginia than some of the other rumored Dem candidates (I'm looking at you, Brian Moran).
Deeds is currently a State Senator from the 25th District, which covers Allegheny/Bath/Nelson Counties as well as large parts of Rockbridge and Albemarle Counties and 2 precincts in Buckingham County, this includes the cities of Covington, Clifton Forge, Charlottesville, and Buena Vista.
Deeds, unlike most Dems in the House of Delegates, knows and gets rural voters. He is surrounded by a lot of VERY red Republican districts. He does have statewide name recognition for his run at the Attorney General's office in 2005, where he lost to Bob McDonnell by an extremely close margin.
A lot of NoVA Dems have scoffed at the idea of a Deeds run in favor of Delegate Brian Moran, the Democratic House Caucus chairman and a popular figure in Fairfax County Dem circles.
Two things make a Moran/Deeds primary interesting.
- Moran opted not to run for AG in '05 because he is friends with Deeds and Deeds had already announce. If Moran decides to run, I wonder what kind of friction this would cause.
- The brewing storm within the Democratic Party known as NoVA (Northern Virginia) vs. RoVA (Rest of Virginia). Deeds vs. Moran is the epitome of this schism.
Read more reaction to Deeds' announcement at SkepticalObservor, Raising Kaine, Rule .303, Virginia Virtucon, The Colette, Cobalt6, Virginia Politics, and Not Larry Sabato.
We have much to celebrate here in Virginia. After six years of progressive leadership under the watch of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, our future has never been brighter. I’m running for Governor to keep Virginia the best place to live, work and raise a family…the best place for all of us to call home.
Friends and supporters from every corner of the Commonwealth say the reason we’ve been so successful these past few years is because we’ve focused on building consensus and delivering results. They’re right: the only way to keep Virginia moving forward and to tackle the challenges of the 21st Century is to continue the Warner/Kaine brand of leadership. Now that Mark Warner is running for the U.S. Senate and we’ve delivered new partners for Governor Kaine in the State Senate, I’m ready to provide that same leadership if given the privilege to serve as your next Governor.
Well, I don't know about all of that talk about the greatness of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, but I will say that Creigh Deeds is a better choice for Virginia than some of the other rumored Dem candidates (I'm looking at you, Brian Moran).
Deeds is currently a State Senator from the 25th District, which covers Allegheny/Bath/Nelson Counties as well as large parts of Rockbridge and Albemarle Counties and 2 precincts in Buckingham County, this includes the cities of Covington, Clifton Forge, Charlottesville, and Buena Vista.
Deeds, unlike most Dems in the House of Delegates, knows and gets rural voters. He is surrounded by a lot of VERY red Republican districts. He does have statewide name recognition for his run at the Attorney General's office in 2005, where he lost to Bob McDonnell by an extremely close margin.
A lot of NoVA Dems have scoffed at the idea of a Deeds run in favor of Delegate Brian Moran, the Democratic House Caucus chairman and a popular figure in Fairfax County Dem circles.
Two things make a Moran/Deeds primary interesting.
- Moran opted not to run for AG in '05 because he is friends with Deeds and Deeds had already announce. If Moran decides to run, I wonder what kind of friction this would cause.
- The brewing storm within the Democratic Party known as NoVA (Northern Virginia) vs. RoVA (Rest of Virginia). Deeds vs. Moran is the epitome of this schism.
Read more reaction to Deeds' announcement at SkepticalObservor, Raising Kaine, Rule .303, Virginia Virtucon, The Colette, Cobalt6, Virginia Politics, and Not Larry Sabato.
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