So says Ben over at Not Larry Sabato. Looks like Senator-Elect John Miller (1st District - Newport News) has to explain a few things. For instance, like paying Andrew Shannon over $10K for 15 days worth of work, which seems to be mostly GOTV (get out the vote) work. That's an awful large sum for such a short span of work.
While the source is very questionable, the allegations seem to stick somewhat...due to the nature of the allegations. According to Ben in the comments section of his post, the U.S. Attorney's office in Norfolk is already investigating this.
While trivial, it should be noted that Chuck Colgan (29th District - Manassas) may be slapped on the wrist for failing to display the "Paid for..." disclaimer on some electronic signs put up around his district, which is a violation of election law. This, of course, is also rumor and nothing more at this point.
If Miller were to be found guilty and ousted from his post, this could turn the 21-19 Democratic majority in the State Senate to 20-20, with the Republicans becoming the majority due to Lt. Governor Bill Bolling being the tiebreaker.
Showing posts with label 2007 election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2007 election. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Virginia Democrats Winners and Losers of 2007
Winners...
The DPVA
They were motivated, organized, and took back the State Senate. They also gained seats in the House of Delegates and put together some great grassroots efforts in quite a few races. They made serious inroads in the Tidewater region as well as continued their efforts to solidify Northern Virginia, epsecially Fairfax County, as "blue" territory.
Sen. Creigh Deeds
Another good year for Mr. Deeds, who supports nonpartisan redistricting (much to the chagrin of Senate majority leaders), continues to hold his State Senate district despite being surrounded in a sea of "red" districts, and has already staked his claim as THE candidate for Governor in 2009.
Former Gov. Mark Warner
He announces a run for Senate, and is the presumptive favorite already. While Warner will have to answer questions about his record (such as his record of tax increases), Warner is by far the best candidate the Dems have put up to run for Senate in the past 2 decades...in comparison, Jim Webb won last year due to "macaca", and Chuck Robb took advantage of a GOP split in support to win in 1994. Warner, unlike Webb and Robb, should be the first Dem Senate candidate that can win without controversy on his opponent's side.
Losers...
The DPVA
While taking back the State Senate, they did not quite make the gains in the House of Delegates that they thought they would, and they only made inroads in the Tidewater area...however, central Virginia and the Valley (Creigh Deeds the exception) remain GOP strongholds. Also, a "NoVa vs. RoVa" split has reared it's ugly head, and if we see Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds face off in a primary for Governor, things can only get worse for that split.
Pro-Illegal Alien Democrats
In fact, you did not hear much in the way of opposition from Democratic politicians to the movement to enforce immigration laws on a local level due to the popular support throughout the state for this movement. In Prince William County, which is the biggest focal point of the immigration debate in Virginia, it was pro-immigration enforcement candidates that won election/re-election.
Grassroots Outside NoVa/Tidewater
Connie Brennan, Michael Breiner, Eric Ferguson, Carolyn Frank...these were all candidates that were supposed to push forward a blue-ward shift in areas like The Valley, Central Virginia, and Roanoke/Salem. None of these candidates won. Ferguson was the odds-on favorite and lost due to excellent grassroots work on the GOP side, Frank never had a campaign, Breiner faced candidate (Ralph Smith) who knocked off an incumbent (Brandon Bell) in a narrowly contested GOP primary and lost. Brennan never got any traction on the ground against Watt Abbitt. All of these candidates had problems with getting going with the grassroots, and it seems that in many areas outside of NoVa and the Tidewater region, the Dem grassroots just can't provide any push.
Push...
Governor Tim Kaine
The Gov scored well this year in his post-Va Tech leadership, raising his national profile by becoming a vocal support of Barack Obama's, and in attempting to put together a somewhat fiscally prudent budget, without tax increases, in the face of a revenue shortfall. However, his narrowing of abuser fees to Virginia drivers only, general misery on the transportation front, conflicting with harder-left Dems on taxes, and going back on a campaign promise by drawing from the transportation fund to cover budget expenses has made this a 50/50 year for the Governor.
The DPVA
They were motivated, organized, and took back the State Senate. They also gained seats in the House of Delegates and put together some great grassroots efforts in quite a few races. They made serious inroads in the Tidewater region as well as continued their efforts to solidify Northern Virginia, epsecially Fairfax County, as "blue" territory.
Sen. Creigh Deeds
Another good year for Mr. Deeds, who supports nonpartisan redistricting (much to the chagrin of Senate majority leaders), continues to hold his State Senate district despite being surrounded in a sea of "red" districts, and has already staked his claim as THE candidate for Governor in 2009.
Former Gov. Mark Warner
He announces a run for Senate, and is the presumptive favorite already. While Warner will have to answer questions about his record (such as his record of tax increases), Warner is by far the best candidate the Dems have put up to run for Senate in the past 2 decades...in comparison, Jim Webb won last year due to "macaca", and Chuck Robb took advantage of a GOP split in support to win in 1994. Warner, unlike Webb and Robb, should be the first Dem Senate candidate that can win without controversy on his opponent's side.
Losers...
The DPVA
While taking back the State Senate, they did not quite make the gains in the House of Delegates that they thought they would, and they only made inroads in the Tidewater area...however, central Virginia and the Valley (Creigh Deeds the exception) remain GOP strongholds. Also, a "NoVa vs. RoVa" split has reared it's ugly head, and if we see Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds face off in a primary for Governor, things can only get worse for that split.
Pro-Illegal Alien Democrats
In fact, you did not hear much in the way of opposition from Democratic politicians to the movement to enforce immigration laws on a local level due to the popular support throughout the state for this movement. In Prince William County, which is the biggest focal point of the immigration debate in Virginia, it was pro-immigration enforcement candidates that won election/re-election.
Grassroots Outside NoVa/Tidewater
Connie Brennan, Michael Breiner, Eric Ferguson, Carolyn Frank...these were all candidates that were supposed to push forward a blue-ward shift in areas like The Valley, Central Virginia, and Roanoke/Salem. None of these candidates won. Ferguson was the odds-on favorite and lost due to excellent grassroots work on the GOP side, Frank never had a campaign, Breiner faced candidate (Ralph Smith) who knocked off an incumbent (Brandon Bell) in a narrowly contested GOP primary and lost. Brennan never got any traction on the ground against Watt Abbitt. All of these candidates had problems with getting going with the grassroots, and it seems that in many areas outside of NoVa and the Tidewater region, the Dem grassroots just can't provide any push.
Push...
Governor Tim Kaine
The Gov scored well this year in his post-Va Tech leadership, raising his national profile by becoming a vocal support of Barack Obama's, and in attempting to put together a somewhat fiscally prudent budget, without tax increases, in the face of a revenue shortfall. However, his narrowing of abuser fees to Virginia drivers only, general misery on the transportation front, conflicting with harder-left Dems on taxes, and going back on a campaign promise by drawing from the transportation fund to cover budget expenses has made this a 50/50 year for the Governor.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Virginia Republican Winners and Losers of 2007
Winners...
Reps. Rob Wittman and Eric Cantor
A virtual unknown statewide, Wittman came from nowhere to win the GOP nomination and handily win the 1st Congressional District special election and ascended from little-known state delegate to sitting in the U.S. House of Representatives. Wittman's election, and the effort shown by the RPV to secure his election, is the first step in healing the rift between moderate and conservative Republicans.
Cantor is quickly becoming a thorn in the side of Congressional Democrats. He has been slowly emerging from the ashes of K Street to become a key leader on Capitol Hill as the Chief Deputy Whip of the House GOP. He also exerts influence as a member of the House Ways and Means Committee, fighting to keep taxes low and trade agreements strong and favorable. His humorous video criticizing Democrats in Congress has been a hit on the web, as well.
Northern and Central Valley Republicans - Sen. Mark Obenshain, Sen. Emmett Hanger, Sen-Elect Jill Vogel, Del. Todd Gilbert, Del. Chris Saxman.
Where to begin...Obenshain has become a party leader in the Senate, Hanger fended off a strong challenge in the primary and still swept the general election in convincing fashion, Vogel took over from RINO Russ Potts despite Dems trying desperately to knock her off. Gilbert was a 2007 workhorse, introducing over 30 bills in 60 days and leading the fight to stop illegal immigration. Saxman went from semi-recognizable Valley figure to statewide sensation by teasing a possible run at the U.S. Senate.
Sen. Ken Cuccinelli
Cuccinelli won his district by running an efficient campaign and by sticking to his principles and pointing out his opponent's flaws in a precise manner. The Democrats threw everything but the kitchen sink into getting Janet Oleszek elected, and even the demographics in Fairfax had seemingly fallen out of Cuccinelli's favor. However, by sticking to his conservative principles and just "being Ken", Cuccinelli won reelection by a slim margin in a blue-trending region of Virginia.
Attorney General Bob McDonnell
McDonnell has announced a run at the Governor's mansion in 2009, and he also has been a standout figure all year long. From challenging the legality and authority of undercover agents from the City of New York (authorized by Mayor Michael Bloomberg) to his reaching out for bipartisan support of law enforcement and sound policy-making, Bob McDonnell has positioned himself well for a shot at becoming the next Governor of Virginia.
Losers...
State Senate RINOs
Russ Potts and John Chichester retired, but could not get anyone to succeed them ideologically and talked themselves into irrelevance, Potts especially. Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis was such a RINO that she was considered to be running to the left of her Democratic opponent Chap Petersen, and even gushed that she was proud of her RINO status.
The Davis Family in General
Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis was an example of how a time bomb can go off more than once, as she (along with her campaign) had several implosions and horrid missteps along the way. Tom Davis got so involved with saving his wife's campaign that it came at the cost of his own image, and now Rep. Davis suddenly does not a appear to be actively seeking re-election next year...which leaves an open seat, a few well-known Dem challengers, and nobody in particular to succeed Davis on the GOP side.
Dave Albo
Let's see...most ardent supporter of the abuser fees, ran unopposed and yet a whopping 12.35% (1,402 votes) went for a "write in" name instead of him. Now, he wants to introduce jail time for those who can't pay their abuser fees. He's one of those Republicans that will see a serious challenge in 2009 unless something drastic happens.
Reps. Rob Wittman and Eric Cantor
A virtual unknown statewide, Wittman came from nowhere to win the GOP nomination and handily win the 1st Congressional District special election and ascended from little-known state delegate to sitting in the U.S. House of Representatives. Wittman's election, and the effort shown by the RPV to secure his election, is the first step in healing the rift between moderate and conservative Republicans.
Cantor is quickly becoming a thorn in the side of Congressional Democrats. He has been slowly emerging from the ashes of K Street to become a key leader on Capitol Hill as the Chief Deputy Whip of the House GOP. He also exerts influence as a member of the House Ways and Means Committee, fighting to keep taxes low and trade agreements strong and favorable. His humorous video criticizing Democrats in Congress has been a hit on the web, as well.
Northern and Central Valley Republicans - Sen. Mark Obenshain, Sen. Emmett Hanger, Sen-Elect Jill Vogel, Del. Todd Gilbert, Del. Chris Saxman.
Where to begin...Obenshain has become a party leader in the Senate, Hanger fended off a strong challenge in the primary and still swept the general election in convincing fashion, Vogel took over from RINO Russ Potts despite Dems trying desperately to knock her off. Gilbert was a 2007 workhorse, introducing over 30 bills in 60 days and leading the fight to stop illegal immigration. Saxman went from semi-recognizable Valley figure to statewide sensation by teasing a possible run at the U.S. Senate.
Sen. Ken Cuccinelli
Cuccinelli won his district by running an efficient campaign and by sticking to his principles and pointing out his opponent's flaws in a precise manner. The Democrats threw everything but the kitchen sink into getting Janet Oleszek elected, and even the demographics in Fairfax had seemingly fallen out of Cuccinelli's favor. However, by sticking to his conservative principles and just "being Ken", Cuccinelli won reelection by a slim margin in a blue-trending region of Virginia.
Attorney General Bob McDonnell
McDonnell has announced a run at the Governor's mansion in 2009, and he also has been a standout figure all year long. From challenging the legality and authority of undercover agents from the City of New York (authorized by Mayor Michael Bloomberg) to his reaching out for bipartisan support of law enforcement and sound policy-making, Bob McDonnell has positioned himself well for a shot at becoming the next Governor of Virginia.
Losers...
State Senate RINOs
Russ Potts and John Chichester retired, but could not get anyone to succeed them ideologically and talked themselves into irrelevance, Potts especially. Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis was such a RINO that she was considered to be running to the left of her Democratic opponent Chap Petersen, and even gushed that she was proud of her RINO status.
The Davis Family in General
Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis was an example of how a time bomb can go off more than once, as she (along with her campaign) had several implosions and horrid missteps along the way. Tom Davis got so involved with saving his wife's campaign that it came at the cost of his own image, and now Rep. Davis suddenly does not a appear to be actively seeking re-election next year...which leaves an open seat, a few well-known Dem challengers, and nobody in particular to succeed Davis on the GOP side.
Dave Albo
Let's see...most ardent supporter of the abuser fees, ran unopposed and yet a whopping 12.35% (1,402 votes) went for a "write in" name instead of him. Now, he wants to introduce jail time for those who can't pay their abuser fees. He's one of those Republicans that will see a serious challenge in 2009 unless something drastic happens.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Top 10 Virginia Political Blog Stories of 2007
The stories that made the blogosphere buzz...
10) GOP politicians join the blogosphere - Jim Gilmore, George Allen, Brandon Bell, and Marty Williams all started their own blogs in the 2nd half of 2007 in an attempt to help conservatives catch up to liberals in terms of how loud their digital voices were heard.
09) The quick rise and fall of Virginia Oddsmaker - This was everyone's favorite Virginia blog for one hot second (including me), then inexplicably collapsed for no known reason.
08) The near-implosion of Roscoe Reynolds' campaign - When Roscoe angrily dodged questions about his questionable campaign consultants on a local TV show, the ensuing words that were typed by bloggers were deafening.
07) Blogs United - Some thought it went well, others did not. Many people believe that there will not be another bipartisan conference of this kind with bloggers due to their mostly-partisan nature. To this, I (and others) say "nay", but many disagree with me.
06) Joe Stanley/ODBA - Joe Stanley, a political consultant, likens the ODBA to Satan's Children (well, to sum it all up) and then links a false ODBA website to the NAMBLA website. Ben Tribbett at NLS (and friend of Stanley's) attempts to set up Daily Whackjob (Whackette in particular) as the fall guys for this revelation, and then attempts to smear the ODBA itself.
05) Blogging Ethics - Was the buzzphrase for most of the spring and summer as bloggers argue over what constitutes "good" blogging ethics.
04) SWAC vs. The World, the Hanger/Sayre primary - Conservative bloggers who supported Scott Sayre in the 24th Senate District primary got into it with other conservative bloggers, liberal bloggers, the Staunton News-Leader...the tension and ill feelings were quite palpable for a while.
03) Election '07, Dems Take State Senate - Riding momentum from the 2006 national elections, strong grassroots work in the Tidewater area, and a growing "blue" trend in NoVa, the Dems took control of the State Senate and made a few gains in the House of Delegates.
02) Abuser Fee Uproar - Most people hate it, the Dems blame the GOP, the GOP blames the Dems, Gov. Kaine applies fee to Virginia drivers only, and the ensuing debacle that occurred.
01) The Virginia Tech Massacre - I don't think this needs any description as to why it was so important.
Any other stories that hit the blogs this year that you feel warrants inclusion, any stories here that need to be excluded? What's your take?
10) GOP politicians join the blogosphere - Jim Gilmore, George Allen, Brandon Bell, and Marty Williams all started their own blogs in the 2nd half of 2007 in an attempt to help conservatives catch up to liberals in terms of how loud their digital voices were heard.
09) The quick rise and fall of Virginia Oddsmaker - This was everyone's favorite Virginia blog for one hot second (including me), then inexplicably collapsed for no known reason.
08) The near-implosion of Roscoe Reynolds' campaign - When Roscoe angrily dodged questions about his questionable campaign consultants on a local TV show, the ensuing words that were typed by bloggers were deafening.
07) Blogs United - Some thought it went well, others did not. Many people believe that there will not be another bipartisan conference of this kind with bloggers due to their mostly-partisan nature. To this, I (and others) say "nay", but many disagree with me.
06) Joe Stanley/ODBA - Joe Stanley, a political consultant, likens the ODBA to Satan's Children (well, to sum it all up) and then links a false ODBA website to the NAMBLA website. Ben Tribbett at NLS (and friend of Stanley's) attempts to set up Daily Whackjob (Whackette in particular) as the fall guys for this revelation, and then attempts to smear the ODBA itself.
05) Blogging Ethics - Was the buzzphrase for most of the spring and summer as bloggers argue over what constitutes "good" blogging ethics.
04) SWAC vs. The World, the Hanger/Sayre primary - Conservative bloggers who supported Scott Sayre in the 24th Senate District primary got into it with other conservative bloggers, liberal bloggers, the Staunton News-Leader...the tension and ill feelings were quite palpable for a while.
03) Election '07, Dems Take State Senate - Riding momentum from the 2006 national elections, strong grassroots work in the Tidewater area, and a growing "blue" trend in NoVa, the Dems took control of the State Senate and made a few gains in the House of Delegates.
02) Abuser Fee Uproar - Most people hate it, the Dems blame the GOP, the GOP blames the Dems, Gov. Kaine applies fee to Virginia drivers only, and the ensuing debacle that occurred.
01) The Virginia Tech Massacre - I don't think this needs any description as to why it was so important.
Any other stories that hit the blogs this year that you feel warrants inclusion, any stories here that need to be excluded? What's your take?
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Wittman Racking Up The Monetary Support
Virginia Virtucon has an analysis of the race for campaign contributions in the 1st Congressional District race, which is holding it's special election on December 11th. They compare the FEC campaign finance reports between Podium endorsed Rob Wittman and Phil Forgit, and show who's getting the support from donors.
Here's a hint, it's not Phil Forgit.
Here's a hint, it's not Phil Forgit.
Monday, November 19, 2007
Endorsement for the 1st Congressional District Special Election
Well, the original Podium-endorsed candidate, James Atticus Bowden, did not quite make it far enough to be nominated (although, he did make it pretty far). So, after reviewing the records of GOP nominee Rob Wittman and Dem nominee Phil Forgit, the Podium has decided to endorse Rob Wittman for the 1st Congressional District of Virginia.
Reminder to readers from the 1st Congressional District, your special election is on December 11th.
Wittman currently is making fiscal responsibility and 2nd Amendment rights some of his top issues. He also supports stronger border security and tougher stances against illegal aliens. His support of the Bush tax cuts is also a fiscal strongpoint.
Go support the next Congressman from the state of Virginia, Rob Wittman!
Reminder to readers from the 1st Congressional District, your special election is on December 11th.
Wittman currently is making fiscal responsibility and 2nd Amendment rights some of his top issues. He also supports stronger border security and tougher stances against illegal aliens. His support of the Bush tax cuts is also a fiscal strongpoint.
Go support the next Congressman from the state of Virginia, Rob Wittman!
Friday, November 16, 2007
Obenshain Now Challenging Virginia GOP Leadership
Sen. Mark Obenshain has joined Del. Bob Marshall and Sen. Ken Cuccinelli in challenging current GOP leadership.
SWAC Girl has Obenshain's letter to current Senate Party Leader Walter Stosch here.
I'd like to see Obenshain step into a leadership position within the party. He's a pretty reasonable man and a solid conservative who is very popular in the Valley and is considered to be a possible candidate for Attorney General in 2009. I've been impressed with Sen. Obenshain since watching his debate with Rodney Eagle during the 2003 campaign on TV 3.
Now, the question remains, if Stosch steps aside as party leader...will it be Cuccinelli or Obenshain? Or will it be anyone else?
SWAC Girl has Obenshain's letter to current Senate Party Leader Walter Stosch here.
I'd like to see Obenshain step into a leadership position within the party. He's a pretty reasonable man and a solid conservative who is very popular in the Valley and is considered to be a possible candidate for Attorney General in 2009. I've been impressed with Sen. Obenshain since watching his debate with Rodney Eagle during the 2003 campaign on TV 3.
Now, the question remains, if Stosch steps aside as party leader...will it be Cuccinelli or Obenshain? Or will it be anyone else?
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
On A Local Note...
Breaking down the races of note in Shenandoah and Rockingham Counties.
Shenandoah Board of Supervisors, District 2 (Mount Jackson/Conicville) Supervisor Jim Patrick was unseated by challenger Steven Baker in yesterday's election. The margin was a razor-thin 16 votes. I have to say that I was sufficiently surprised that Patrick lost, as he was a pretty good supervisor and always favored reason and research over "knee-jerk reaction" politics.
I can only assume this vote was a reaction to the proposal of a new jail in Shenandoah County, which Patrick supported (and provided really good, well-researched reasons for it). I don't quite see any other reasons as to why Patrick lost. Hopefully, Steven Baker can do just as good a job.
Shenandoah Board of Supervisors, District 3 (Edinburg/Columbia Furnance/St. Luke) was not quite as surprising, as David Ferguson defeated Miriam Reno by a near 54%-46% vote. It was expected to be a fairly close race, but Ferguson won by a margin that most people expected.
Shenandoah Clerk of Court Denise Barb, and 25 year incumbent, held off a relatively fierce challenge from Tammy Heishman. Barb won with about 57% of the vote. I'm not surprised it was this close, and I thought it might've been 1 or 2 points closer, actually.
Rockingham Clerk of Court was a race between 11 candidates that really came down to two candidates. Chaz Evans-Haywood and Dianne Fulk. Haywood won with almost 26% of the vote compared to Fulk's 22%. Barry Koogler, Brenda Huffman, and Mike Harvey all garnered over 10% of the vote, as well. The Republitarian himself, Myron Rhodes, managed to net 2.5% of the vote...but definitely spent less on campaigning than the rest of the candidates.
Benny "The Playgirl Politician" Neal, penis and all, finished dead last.
Shenandoah Board of Supervisors, District 2 (Mount Jackson/Conicville) Supervisor Jim Patrick was unseated by challenger Steven Baker in yesterday's election. The margin was a razor-thin 16 votes. I have to say that I was sufficiently surprised that Patrick lost, as he was a pretty good supervisor and always favored reason and research over "knee-jerk reaction" politics.
I can only assume this vote was a reaction to the proposal of a new jail in Shenandoah County, which Patrick supported (and provided really good, well-researched reasons for it). I don't quite see any other reasons as to why Patrick lost. Hopefully, Steven Baker can do just as good a job.
Shenandoah Board of Supervisors, District 3 (Edinburg/Columbia Furnance/St. Luke) was not quite as surprising, as David Ferguson defeated Miriam Reno by a near 54%-46% vote. It was expected to be a fairly close race, but Ferguson won by a margin that most people expected.
Shenandoah Clerk of Court Denise Barb, and 25 year incumbent, held off a relatively fierce challenge from Tammy Heishman. Barb won with about 57% of the vote. I'm not surprised it was this close, and I thought it might've been 1 or 2 points closer, actually.
Rockingham Clerk of Court was a race between 11 candidates that really came down to two candidates. Chaz Evans-Haywood and Dianne Fulk. Haywood won with almost 26% of the vote compared to Fulk's 22%. Barry Koogler, Brenda Huffman, and Mike Harvey all garnered over 10% of the vote, as well. The Republitarian himself, Myron Rhodes, managed to net 2.5% of the vote...but definitely spent less on campaigning than the rest of the candidates.
Benny "The Playgirl Politician" Neal, penis and all, finished dead last.
Well...
Now we have an "Assembly Divided."
Democrats will have a 21-19 edge in the Senate (which was 23-17), while the Republicans still control the House of Delegates by a pretty solid 54-44-2 split (with both Independents caucusing with the GOP, the previous advantage for the GOP was 57-40-3, with 2 of the 3 Independents caucusing with the GOP). Congratulations to the Democrats in Virginia, you got control of the State Senate...I would implore you be smart with your slim majority and make sure to keep Virginia first and stupid partisan BS second, but I have this feeling it won't happen.
Dems gained 4 seats in the HOD (thank you for the correction, Vivian J. Paige), but still have a ways to go to gain control. However, they are already planning on pushing legislation as if they have both Houses of the General Assembly in their control.
Let the lame duck politics begin...and when nothing gets done in the next 4 years, I will definitely be able to point at the Dems in the Senate and say "that's why, Virginia...that's why".
OK, I'm somewhat kidding with that last statement. In all honesty, I do congratulate the Dems on their victory in the Senate. If nothing else, it should make for interesting, if not overly-partisan and bitter, politics.
Democrats will have a 21-19 edge in the Senate (which was 23-17), while the Republicans still control the House of Delegates by a pretty solid 54-44-2 split (with both Independents caucusing with the GOP, the previous advantage for the GOP was 57-40-3, with 2 of the 3 Independents caucusing with the GOP). Congratulations to the Democrats in Virginia, you got control of the State Senate...I would implore you be smart with your slim majority and make sure to keep Virginia first and stupid partisan BS second, but I have this feeling it won't happen.
Dems gained 4 seats in the HOD (thank you for the correction, Vivian J. Paige), but still have a ways to go to gain control. However, they are already planning on pushing legislation as if they have both Houses of the General Assembly in their control.
Let the lame duck politics begin...and when nothing gets done in the next 4 years, I will definitely be able to point at the Dems in the Senate and say "that's why, Virginia...that's why".
OK, I'm somewhat kidding with that last statement. In all honesty, I do congratulate the Dems on their victory in the Senate. If nothing else, it should make for interesting, if not overly-partisan and bitter, politics.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Election Night - Results, Projections, and Thoughts
Starting at 7 PM...unofficial results courtesy of the Virginia State Board of Elections.
7:25 PM - First Projection of the night, with 6% of precincts reporting...I'm calling Senate District 13 for incumbent Fred Quayle.
7:33 PM - 45% of precincts reporting and a 17% lead, I'm calling House District 68 for Manoli Loupassi.
9:16 PM - Key races I'm calling...Senate Districts 20 (Roscoe Reynolds) and 24 (Emmett Hanger).
I'm also calling House Districts 5 (Bill Carrico), 6 (Anne Crockett-Stark). 7 (Dave Nutter), 13 (Bob Marshall), 16 (Don Merricks), 50 (Jackson Miller), 59 (Watkins Abbitt, Jr.), 83 (Joe Bouchard), 87 (Paula Miller), 99 (Mark Cole), and 96 (Brenda Pogge)
9:41 PM - Calling two more Senate races...Districts 22 (Ralph Smith) and 27 (Jill Holtzman Vogel).
10:25 PM - New Senate races called...Districts 1 (John Miller), 6 (Ralph Northam), 28 (Richard Stuart), 29 (Chuck Colgan), 33 (Mark Herring), and 34 (Chap Petersen). Senate Districts 37 and 39 are too close to call at this point.
House races called...District 14 (Danny Marshall), 21 (Bobby Mathieson), 33 (Joe May), 34 (Margi Vanderhye), 40 (Tim Hugo). The rest of the key races are too close to call at this point.
Being that it is 10:30, and I have a job that is not tied closely to Virginia politics, I'm off to bed...we'll see how things pan out tomorrow.
7:25 PM - First Projection of the night, with 6% of precincts reporting...I'm calling Senate District 13 for incumbent Fred Quayle.
7:33 PM - 45% of precincts reporting and a 17% lead, I'm calling House District 68 for Manoli Loupassi.
9:16 PM - Key races I'm calling...Senate Districts 20 (Roscoe Reynolds) and 24 (Emmett Hanger).
I'm also calling House Districts 5 (Bill Carrico), 6 (Anne Crockett-Stark). 7 (Dave Nutter), 13 (Bob Marshall), 16 (Don Merricks), 50 (Jackson Miller), 59 (Watkins Abbitt, Jr.), 83 (Joe Bouchard), 87 (Paula Miller), 99 (Mark Cole), and 96 (Brenda Pogge)
9:41 PM - Calling two more Senate races...Districts 22 (Ralph Smith) and 27 (Jill Holtzman Vogel).
10:25 PM - New Senate races called...Districts 1 (John Miller), 6 (Ralph Northam), 28 (Richard Stuart), 29 (Chuck Colgan), 33 (Mark Herring), and 34 (Chap Petersen). Senate Districts 37 and 39 are too close to call at this point.
House races called...District 14 (Danny Marshall), 21 (Bobby Mathieson), 33 (Joe May), 34 (Margi Vanderhye), 40 (Tim Hugo). The rest of the key races are too close to call at this point.
Being that it is 10:30, and I have a job that is not tied closely to Virginia politics, I'm off to bed...we'll see how things pan out tomorrow.
Election Night Coverage Starts at 7 PM!
Many blogs across the Commonwealth will be live-blogging as results come in. I haven't heard if The New Dominion will be in on the action, but I would be surprised if they weren't.
Keep checking with The Podium for updates on today's election activities, and I'll be posting reactions to the votes as the poll results come in.
Keep checking with The Podium for updates on today's election activities, and I'll be posting reactions to the votes as the poll results come in.
Election Day Thread
Voted at 8:45 am here in Strasburg, and was #68. From what I understand, turnout is higher than expected in my little town. I voted for Mark Obenshain for State Senate, Todd Gilbert for House of Delegates, Conrad Helsley for Shenandoah County Board of Supervisors, and Denise Barb for Shenandoah County Clerk of Court.
My "Personal Moment With The Opposition"...so far: Barb's opponent, Tammy Heishman, had a supporter passing out flyers stating "It's Time For Change, Vote Heishman", with no other information about Heishman on the flyer. I looked at this supporter, and I asked her "why do we need change in the Clerk of Court's office? I haven't heard any complaints from anyone I know." This drew a silent, frustrated stare from the Heishman supporter. I get the feeling that Heishman is running just to attain the position, because there hasn't been any real sense of reason for her campaign.
Anyway, from across the state...
Turnout is pretty high in the 27th District, some say this is bad for Vogel...but given that Vogel has actually been energizing GOP support, I'd say that this means nothing for her.
Virginia Virtucon, Not Larry Sabato, blueweeds, and Mason Conservative are all running open threads on the election, as well. I'm sure we'll all be reporting information back and forth on each other.
UPDATES
1:39 PM - Found an interesting article in the News-Virginian that warns that if Dems win control of the General Assembly, it will mostly be Northern Virginia Democrats that will pretty much run the state, as they will chair most committees. I also see that Spank That Donkey carried the same article.
2:19 PM - Development in the 34th Senate District race. Not Larry Sabato reports an incident between Tom Davis (Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis's husband and U.S. Congressman) and Mary Petersen (Chap Petersen's mother). NLS's version of this story has a definite "pro-Chap" slant, which is expected since NLS is so close to Chap. I still haven't received an answer there as to why Mary Petersen went to the polling place where Tom Davis was handing out anti-Chap literature (which is legal, I may add), and confronted him? Tom Davis's response was really ignorant, but Mary Petersen was obviously trying to start something...why else would she go there and confront Tom?
4:35 PM - Some reports from around the state regarding Senate , take it for what it's worth...Stuart looking really good against Pollard in the 28th Senate race. Cuccinelli looking good for re-election. Cadin/Caputo was looking very good in favor of Caputo at first, but exit polling and reports state that this race is slowly tightening. In the 27th, Vogel is looking good in areas thought to go to Schultz...including a spread as large as 60-40 in Vogel's favor in Frederick County, which was thought to be where Schultz would get a good bulk of her votes. In the 34th, there has been reports of higher-than-expected turnout for Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis, which goes against the predicted high turnout wave of support for Chap Petersen.
5:30 PM - Stories flying. I've heard this nasty rumor that either Bob FitzSimmonds and/or Faisal Gill got into a fight with a poll worker somewhere in Prince William County. Sources have told me this is untrue, and was undoubtedly started by a nervous Dem. Remember, FitzSimmonds and Gill are both in close, tough fights with their Dem opponents, and have been part of key races this year.
6:01 PM - Ben at NLS projects Chap Petersen to win with 1 hour and 15 minutes before the polls even close...favortism? I mean, I do think Chap wins by a slim margin, but this is ridiculous.
My "Personal Moment With The Opposition"...so far: Barb's opponent, Tammy Heishman, had a supporter passing out flyers stating "It's Time For Change, Vote Heishman", with no other information about Heishman on the flyer. I looked at this supporter, and I asked her "why do we need change in the Clerk of Court's office? I haven't heard any complaints from anyone I know." This drew a silent, frustrated stare from the Heishman supporter. I get the feeling that Heishman is running just to attain the position, because there hasn't been any real sense of reason for her campaign.
Anyway, from across the state...
Turnout is pretty high in the 27th District, some say this is bad for Vogel...but given that Vogel has actually been energizing GOP support, I'd say that this means nothing for her.
Virginia Virtucon, Not Larry Sabato, blueweeds, and Mason Conservative are all running open threads on the election, as well. I'm sure we'll all be reporting information back and forth on each other.
UPDATES
1:39 PM - Found an interesting article in the News-Virginian that warns that if Dems win control of the General Assembly, it will mostly be Northern Virginia Democrats that will pretty much run the state, as they will chair most committees. I also see that Spank That Donkey carried the same article.
2:19 PM - Development in the 34th Senate District race. Not Larry Sabato reports an incident between Tom Davis (Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis's husband and U.S. Congressman) and Mary Petersen (Chap Petersen's mother). NLS's version of this story has a definite "pro-Chap" slant, which is expected since NLS is so close to Chap. I still haven't received an answer there as to why Mary Petersen went to the polling place where Tom Davis was handing out anti-Chap literature (which is legal, I may add), and confronted him? Tom Davis's response was really ignorant, but Mary Petersen was obviously trying to start something...why else would she go there and confront Tom?
4:35 PM - Some reports from around the state regarding Senate , take it for what it's worth...Stuart looking really good against Pollard in the 28th Senate race. Cuccinelli looking good for re-election. Cadin/Caputo was looking very good in favor of Caputo at first, but exit polling and reports state that this race is slowly tightening. In the 27th, Vogel is looking good in areas thought to go to Schultz...including a spread as large as 60-40 in Vogel's favor in Frederick County, which was thought to be where Schultz would get a good bulk of her votes. In the 34th, there has been reports of higher-than-expected turnout for Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis, which goes against the predicted high turnout wave of support for Chap Petersen.
5:30 PM - Stories flying. I've heard this nasty rumor that either Bob FitzSimmonds and/or Faisal Gill got into a fight with a poll worker somewhere in Prince William County. Sources have told me this is untrue, and was undoubtedly started by a nervous Dem. Remember, FitzSimmonds and Gill are both in close, tough fights with their Dem opponents, and have been part of key races this year.
6:01 PM - Ben at NLS projects Chap Petersen to win with 1 hour and 15 minutes before the polls even close...favortism? I mean, I do think Chap wins by a slim margin, but this is ridiculous.
Monday, November 5, 2007
Last Words for Election Eve...
I do a lot of promotion for conservative causes, mainly economically and sensibly conservative causes. However, despite the blustering, the mudslinging, the truths, the lies, the punditry, and the pageantry...I just hope that all of you in Virginia (and in any other state that has elections tomorrow) do one thing at some point during the day tomorrow.
Go out and vote. I truly believe it is your civic duty to do so. It is also your choice to refrain from doing so...and that's your prerogative. However, this country is a great one. The biggest reason why is because people have died defending your right to pull the lever or fill in the appropriate circle. Others have died simply trying to provide that right for people in foreign lands.
Those of you who vote, wear that "I Voted" sticker proudly tomorrow. Encourage others to do the same.
Go out and vote. I truly believe it is your civic duty to do so. It is also your choice to refrain from doing so...and that's your prerogative. However, this country is a great one. The biggest reason why is because people have died defending your right to pull the lever or fill in the appropriate circle. Others have died simply trying to provide that right for people in foreign lands.
Those of you who vote, wear that "I Voted" sticker proudly tomorrow. Encourage others to do the same.
Vogel Drumming Up Support in Schultz's Yard
Of course, those of us who actually live near the Winchester area already knew that Vogel was at least as well-known and as well-liked as Karen Schultz.
NovaTownhall Blog has today's Northern Virginia Daily story on Vogel's appearance in Winchester with former Governor and Senator George Allen.
NovaTownhall Blog has today's Northern Virginia Daily story on Vogel's appearance in Winchester with former Governor and Senator George Allen.
Undecided Shenandoah Valley Voters!
The Augusta Free Press has a post up where you can catch local election information, interviews, and forums that they have recorded. The 24th, 26th, and 27th State Senate Districts are covered, as well as several local county supervisor and other races.
Check it out here.
Check it out here.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
Good Article on General Assembly's "Youth Movement"
Chris Graham has a good article about increased influence and power of Gen Xer's in the General Assembly in The New Dominion magazine. Read it here, or help support your local press and get yourself a subscription, or you can go buy yourself a copy at your nearest retailer.
Please, give Chris Graham some money so maybe he can compensate me for constantly shilling for his publication on my blog ;)
Please, give Chris Graham some money so maybe he can compensate me for constantly shilling for his publication on my blog ;)
Dems Really Redlining Anti-Abbitt Efforts
The charge against Delegate Watkins Abbitt, Jr (I-Appomatox) is led by Democratic Central, and echoed loudly by Raising Kaine. Basically, they're using the age-old arguments of how Abbitt is controlled by lobbyists (isn't any opponent to a Democrat controlled by lobbyists these days?).
Side Note: I've always found the "don't vote for this guy, he has been influenced by lobbyists" argument a bit funny, because aren't all politicians influenced by lobbyists of some kind? That's what lobbyists do, ya know? They attempt to influence politics so things favor the industry they represent. Whether it's gun lobbyists, free trade lobbyists, environmental lobbyists, oil lobbyists, automotive industry lobbyists, union lobbyists, pro-abortion lobbyists...I could go on. All politicians have lobbyists of some kind that have their ear, no matter what their party affiliation is. That's politics in America, and it's been that way for a loooong time. But I digress...
They've gone so far as to remind people that Abbitt's father was part of the Byrd machine way back when, and was a leading segregationist (no mention of the fact that he was also a Democrat). This same post cites a 1985 newspaper article that is supposed to prove that Abbitt Jr. is a "habitual mudslinger", however the article cited seems to paint Abbitt as much less of a mudslinger than his primary opponent at that time (at least the way it read to me).
That same article also pointed out that Abbitt did not share his father's views on race.
I think there's still some sour grapes over the fact that Abbitt Jr. left the Democratic Party and became an Independent. It seems that as the Dems went left, he decided to stay center. Now, he'll always have a big target on his back.
Too bad for the Dems, Abbitt will pretty much keep this district for as long as he wants to...there's quite a few reasons as to why he's been there for over 20 years, so far.
Side Note: I've always found the "don't vote for this guy, he has been influenced by lobbyists" argument a bit funny, because aren't all politicians influenced by lobbyists of some kind? That's what lobbyists do, ya know? They attempt to influence politics so things favor the industry they represent. Whether it's gun lobbyists, free trade lobbyists, environmental lobbyists, oil lobbyists, automotive industry lobbyists, union lobbyists, pro-abortion lobbyists...I could go on. All politicians have lobbyists of some kind that have their ear, no matter what their party affiliation is. That's politics in America, and it's been that way for a loooong time. But I digress...
They've gone so far as to remind people that Abbitt's father was part of the Byrd machine way back when, and was a leading segregationist (no mention of the fact that he was also a Democrat). This same post cites a 1985 newspaper article that is supposed to prove that Abbitt Jr. is a "habitual mudslinger", however the article cited seems to paint Abbitt as much less of a mudslinger than his primary opponent at that time (at least the way it read to me).
That same article also pointed out that Abbitt did not share his father's views on race.
I think there's still some sour grapes over the fact that Abbitt Jr. left the Democratic Party and became an Independent. It seems that as the Dems went left, he decided to stay center. Now, he'll always have a big target on his back.
Too bad for the Dems, Abbitt will pretty much keep this district for as long as he wants to...there's quite a few reasons as to why he's been there for over 20 years, so far.
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Things Are Quiet, Almost Too Quiet
Now that I'm done ranting about the De-Americanization of a Real American Hero, allow me to pass along the fact that things have really quieted down in the past 2-3 days in terms of election buzz.
Heck, you would think that the blogosphere would be as busy and buzzing with news, information, and commentary as ever. Is it lack of anything new? Could it be the calm before the Monday and Tuesday storm of propaganda? Is everyone simply fatigued after months of campaigning and punditry? Why is it so quiet out there all of a sudden?
Heck, you would think that the blogosphere would be as busy and buzzing with news, information, and commentary as ever. Is it lack of anything new? Could it be the calm before the Monday and Tuesday storm of propaganda? Is everyone simply fatigued after months of campaigning and punditry? Why is it so quiet out there all of a sudden?
Friday, November 2, 2007
Vogel Sets the Record Straight
In an interview with The New Dominion today, Jill Holtzman Vogel sets the record straight on her stance against the proposed power lines by Dominion Power that would run right through the heart of the 27th District to ship power to other states.
She also corrects the falsehoods that her opponent, Karen Schultz, has been spreading about Vogel's stances and expresses frustration and discontent with Schultz's negative campaign blitz over the past month or so.
Give it a read.
She also corrects the falsehoods that her opponent, Karen Schultz, has been spreading about Vogel's stances and expresses frustration and discontent with Schultz's negative campaign blitz over the past month or so.
Give it a read.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Vogel Press Release Exposes Schultz Campaign Fabricating Endorsements
(h/t NovaTownhall Blog)
Apparently, if you donate to Karen Schultz's campaign, you're automatically endorsing her.
In a press release from Jill Holtzman-Vogel's campaign, Schultz's fabrication of endorsements is exposed. Schultz claims that she has a "joint endorsement" from the Northern Virginia Technology Council.
Why would anyone in their right mind endorse two candidates in the same race???
The truth is that the Northern Virginia Technology Council simply donated to both candidates equally. She also claims an endorsement from the Virginia Nurses Association (which also donated to Vogel) and she also previously claimed an endorsement from the Washington Post, which was an outright lie. The Washington Post has actually already endorsed Vogel, not Schultz.
This is poor and deceitful campaigning by Karen Schultz.
Apparently, if you donate to Karen Schultz's campaign, you're automatically endorsing her.
In a press release from Jill Holtzman-Vogel's campaign, Schultz's fabrication of endorsements is exposed. Schultz claims that she has a "joint endorsement" from the Northern Virginia Technology Council.
Why would anyone in their right mind endorse two candidates in the same race???
The truth is that the Northern Virginia Technology Council simply donated to both candidates equally. She also claims an endorsement from the Virginia Nurses Association (which also donated to Vogel) and she also previously claimed an endorsement from the Washington Post, which was an outright lie. The Washington Post has actually already endorsed Vogel, not Schultz.
This is poor and deceitful campaigning by Karen Schultz.
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