Virginia Virtucon posted and prognosticated about the latest from Rasmussen on the state of Virginia today. Currently, Mark Warner leads Jim Gilmore in the head-to-head Senate race matchup 53%-38%
I must note that Virtucon is dead on about the fact that Mark Warner, with all of his supposed popularity, should be doing better than 53%. Gilmore's 38%, however, isn't very good considering he is a high-profile politician in Virginia who has had plenty of national exposure.
On the immigration front, here's what Rasmussen found...
Eighty-four percent (84%) of Virginia voters believe English should be the official language of the United States. Seventy-four percent (74%) believe companies should be allowed to require employees to speak English while on the job.
In terms of election ballots, the voters are more evenly divided. Just over half (55%) believe ballots should be printed in English only, while 39% say they should printed in both English and Spanish.
So they have to speak English, but they don't have to vote in English. I'm not saying I agree or disagree with the consensus, but you'd think there would be more consistency with those poll numbers, especially on the election ballot issue.
Speaking of Virginia, here's some head-to-head matchup polling for the Presidential race from Rasmussen...
McCain 49%, Clinton 38%
McCain 45%, Obama 43%
Romney 44%, Clinton 43%
Obama 47%, Romney 41%
This is an indicator of how the independents feel. They like Obama and McCain (yes, that's stating the obvious). However, it seems that people are warming back up to McCain a lot, even in this state.
Even I'm beginning to warm back up to McCain...not enough to abandon Fred Thompson, who I think is the best candidate. However, should Fred leave the race, it's either McCain or Romney for me right now. I began to see reasons to support McCain when I saw that, during their overlapping Senate tenures, Thompson and McCain voted the same way 81% of the time.
Maybe Thompson and McCain will be running mates, given how well they've worked together in the past. Who knows.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Hope for Fred in SC
Hunter Golden said it best...
I think the ONE guy who could sneak into the mix is Thompson, with Romney now completely sunk, I think you're going to see some defections to the Thompson crowd. If he takes the conservative stance, he can do well in South Carolina. I think while Huckabee and McCain are essentially playing to the same crowds.
This has actually been part of Fred's campaign strategy as of late. Get 3rd in Iowa, ignore New Hampshire for obvious reasons, and make the push in South Carolina. A 2nd place, or better, finish in SC will provide the shot in the arm to Fred's chances. The defection from Romney to Thompson has been predicted by other prognosticators, as well.
Good news for Fred.
I think the ONE guy who could sneak into the mix is Thompson, with Romney now completely sunk, I think you're going to see some defections to the Thompson crowd. If he takes the conservative stance, he can do well in South Carolina. I think while Huckabee and McCain are essentially playing to the same crowds.
This has actually been part of Fred's campaign strategy as of late. Get 3rd in Iowa, ignore New Hampshire for obvious reasons, and make the push in South Carolina. A 2nd place, or better, finish in SC will provide the shot in the arm to Fred's chances. The defection from Romney to Thompson has been predicted by other prognosticators, as well.
Good news for Fred.
Support the Wise County Power Plant
Kilo has a good post up about the support for the proposed Wise County Power Plant. This would be a "clean-burning coal" power plant. Although I do not live near the coalfields of Virginia, I do support this power plant. It will provide jobs, energy, and boost the economy of an area that really needs a project like this to revitalize the county.
Wise County, if you're unfamiliar with it, is located in southwest Virginia, on the border with Kentucky. It is nestled in the mountains and deep in the heart of the Virginia's coal-mining region.
I understand that many people are against using coal for pollution reasons. However, we have technology to make coal usage much more enviro-friendly. Why not give it a chance? It will provide an economic and technological benefit to the coalfields, and a source of energy for the state of Virginia.
Wise County, if you're unfamiliar with it, is located in southwest Virginia, on the border with Kentucky. It is nestled in the mountains and deep in the heart of the Virginia's coal-mining region.
I understand that many people are against using coal for pollution reasons. However, we have technology to make coal usage much more enviro-friendly. Why not give it a chance? It will provide an economic and technological benefit to the coalfields, and a source of energy for the state of Virginia.
N.H. GOP Primary: McCain's Win Anti-Climactic, Romney's Still Got a Chance
Anyone else feel that John McCain's win in New Hampshire was not nearly the surprise that some have made it out to be?
Sure, he's come back from being nearly dead in the water 8 months ago. However, for about 2 weeks now, we've pretty much known that McCain would overtake Mitt Romney in New Hampshire and win. McCain has been surging for 2 months now, and is actually starting to take away Mike Huckabee's heat (thank God).
Many are already counting Mitt Romney out, but be careful about that kind of prognostication. If McCain, Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani trade victories all over the United States, Romney seems poised to come in 2nd or 3rd in all of the primaries. He still will collect plenty of delegates even if he gets mostly silver-medal finishes.
With Huckabee's popularity pretty well isolated to evangelicals and other social conservatives, and McCain being a "boom or bust" candidate whose boom or bust depends on the state, Romney could be the most consistent "delegate-collector" of all the candidates.
With the possibility of a contested convention in September, and no one candidate really breaking away to collect enough delegates to win on the first ballot, Romney may put himself into a very advantageous position by winning a few states, and getting a lot of 2nd place finishes.
Honestly, as wide open as this race is...I can definitely see the possibility that no GOP candidate reaches the magic number of 1,191 delegates by the time this thing is over.
After New Hampshire, CNN has the delegate count as follows...
Romney 30, Huckabee 21, McCain 10, Fred Thompson 6, Ron Paul 2, Giuliani 1, Duncan Hunter 1. While it's still REALLY early, we've got Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida coming up before Super Tuesday.
Fred Thompson is making his "Last Stand" in South Carolina. Smart move to hedge his bets there, as that is the next "big focus" primary, and the site of the next debate. This is his best shot to get back into this thing.
Sure, he's come back from being nearly dead in the water 8 months ago. However, for about 2 weeks now, we've pretty much known that McCain would overtake Mitt Romney in New Hampshire and win. McCain has been surging for 2 months now, and is actually starting to take away Mike Huckabee's heat (thank God).
Many are already counting Mitt Romney out, but be careful about that kind of prognostication. If McCain, Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani trade victories all over the United States, Romney seems poised to come in 2nd or 3rd in all of the primaries. He still will collect plenty of delegates even if he gets mostly silver-medal finishes.
With Huckabee's popularity pretty well isolated to evangelicals and other social conservatives, and McCain being a "boom or bust" candidate whose boom or bust depends on the state, Romney could be the most consistent "delegate-collector" of all the candidates.
With the possibility of a contested convention in September, and no one candidate really breaking away to collect enough delegates to win on the first ballot, Romney may put himself into a very advantageous position by winning a few states, and getting a lot of 2nd place finishes.
Honestly, as wide open as this race is...I can definitely see the possibility that no GOP candidate reaches the magic number of 1,191 delegates by the time this thing is over.
After New Hampshire, CNN has the delegate count as follows...
Romney 30, Huckabee 21, McCain 10, Fred Thompson 6, Ron Paul 2, Giuliani 1, Duncan Hunter 1. While it's still REALLY early, we've got Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida coming up before Super Tuesday.
Fred Thompson is making his "Last Stand" in South Carolina. Smart move to hedge his bets there, as that is the next "big focus" primary, and the site of the next debate. This is his best shot to get back into this thing.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
GOP Delegate Breakdown, and GOP Ballot Shortages in N.H.
Jim Geraghty says things look something like this...
So presume the polls are accurate, and Mitt Romney comes in second to John McCain this evening.
CNN estimates the delegate breakdown in Iowa as Huckabee 17, Romney 12, Thompson 3, McCain 3, Paul 2. (Why an estimate? Because Iowa's delegates "are chosen in a painfully complicated four-step process lasting months after the January caucus," as David Freddoso reported, as he's the one of the few who actually looked at how this process works. Look, just keep Freddoso's story on how the delegate fight could hash out bookmarked, because we'll need it many times before this thing is through.)
In Wyoming, the delegates break down Romney 8, Thompson 3, Duncan Hunter 1.
So right now, it's Romney 20, Huckabee 17, Thompson 6, McCain 3, Paul 2, Hunter 1.
At stake tonight... New Hampshire will have 12 delegates, their total having been reduced as a penalty for holding the primary earlier than allowed by the Republican National -Committee. They're awarded proportionally. So it wouldn't be shocking to see McCain get 5 delegates and Romney get 4, or maybe 6 to 3. Either way, Romney's still well ahead of McCain, and should keep the lead at the end of the night.
Now, don't get me wrong - Romney's spent a small fortune, and losing both Iowa and New Hampshire wasn't part of the plan. His momentum will be awful, McCain will probably get a poll surge in Michigan, and people will ask, rightly, where Romney can win if he can't win in two states where he's flooded the airwaves with ads and committed tremendous resources.
Next week is Michigan, and it's supposed to have 60; the RNC is punishing them by stripping half their delegates. The state thinks they'll get their delegates reinstated in time for the convention. Either way, that 30 or 60 are awarded proportionally as well.
Interesting. I'm wondering how things will look after South Carolina. That is the do-or-die state for my man, Fred Thompson.
Meanwhile, despite the cries of success that the Democrats are facing ballot shortages in New Hampshire due to record turnout...it seems that the GOP is ALSO facing ballot shortages.
A great night for Democracy, in my humble opinion.
So presume the polls are accurate, and Mitt Romney comes in second to John McCain this evening.
CNN estimates the delegate breakdown in Iowa as Huckabee 17, Romney 12, Thompson 3, McCain 3, Paul 2. (Why an estimate? Because Iowa's delegates "are chosen in a painfully complicated four-step process lasting months after the January caucus," as David Freddoso reported, as he's the one of the few who actually looked at how this process works. Look, just keep Freddoso's story on how the delegate fight could hash out bookmarked, because we'll need it many times before this thing is through.)
In Wyoming, the delegates break down Romney 8, Thompson 3, Duncan Hunter 1.
So right now, it's Romney 20, Huckabee 17, Thompson 6, McCain 3, Paul 2, Hunter 1.
At stake tonight... New Hampshire will have 12 delegates, their total having been reduced as a penalty for holding the primary earlier than allowed by the Republican National -Committee. They're awarded proportionally. So it wouldn't be shocking to see McCain get 5 delegates and Romney get 4, or maybe 6 to 3. Either way, Romney's still well ahead of McCain, and should keep the lead at the end of the night.
Now, don't get me wrong - Romney's spent a small fortune, and losing both Iowa and New Hampshire wasn't part of the plan. His momentum will be awful, McCain will probably get a poll surge in Michigan, and people will ask, rightly, where Romney can win if he can't win in two states where he's flooded the airwaves with ads and committed tremendous resources.
Next week is Michigan, and it's supposed to have 60; the RNC is punishing them by stripping half their delegates. The state thinks they'll get their delegates reinstated in time for the convention. Either way, that 30 or 60 are awarded proportionally as well.
Interesting. I'm wondering how things will look after South Carolina. That is the do-or-die state for my man, Fred Thompson.
Meanwhile, despite the cries of success that the Democrats are facing ballot shortages in New Hampshire due to record turnout...it seems that the GOP is ALSO facing ballot shortages.
A great night for Democracy, in my humble opinion.
The Heart of the World Skipped a Beat
With tensions between Iran and the U.S. getting even more strained, a blowout turnout in New Hampshire for the presidential primaries, and the price of oil continuing to put a strain on American wallets, one story has made the world pause and pay attention for 5 seconds...
Hannah Montana uses a body double in concert. *gasp!*
Well, OK, Miley Cyrus only uses the body double for about a minute or two between switching from her "Hannah Montana" image/persona to her real self as Miley Cyrus. However, this has suddenly become an "all the rage" news item.
Glad to see the world has things in perspective...
Anyway, New Hampshire results should start coming in within the next hour or so, I'll get some early returns and thoughts up as soon as possible.
Hannah Montana uses a body double in concert. *gasp!*
Well, OK, Miley Cyrus only uses the body double for about a minute or two between switching from her "Hannah Montana" image/persona to her real self as Miley Cyrus. However, this has suddenly become an "all the rage" news item.
Glad to see the world has things in perspective...
Anyway, New Hampshire results should start coming in within the next hour or so, I'll get some early returns and thoughts up as soon as possible.
Whoa!
The Hillary collapse continues...
As they barnstorm through New Hampshire, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her husband are often introduced by supporters who once backed another candidate but converted to her cause.
Today, in Dover, Francine Torge, a former John Edwards supporter, said this while introducing Mrs. Clinton: “Some people compare one of the other candidates to John F. Kennedy. But he was assassinated. And Lyndon Baines Johnson was the one who actually” passed the civil rights legislation.
The comment, an apparent reference to Senator Barack Obama, is particularly striking given documented fears among blacks that Mr. Obama will be assassinated if elected.
Ouch...that's got to sting for the Clinton camp. However, a few hours later came this report from Major Garrett.
Clinton also said Obama and Edwards have acted like hypocrites during the race and appeared to diminish the role Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. played in the civil rights movements, saying it wasn’t hope that King inspired that made the difference but President Lyndon Johnson’s decision to fight for and sign the Civil Rights Act into law.
So MLK's leadership in the Civil Rights Movement wasn't what led to the Civil Rights Act, it was LBJ all along! All those marches, the beatdowns by riot police...it was really pointless. Blacks could've stayed at home, because LBJ was going to give it to them, anyway!
That's American History in Hillary's world.
(h/t NY Times Caucus Blog, The Bourbon Room)
As they barnstorm through New Hampshire, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her husband are often introduced by supporters who once backed another candidate but converted to her cause.
Today, in Dover, Francine Torge, a former John Edwards supporter, said this while introducing Mrs. Clinton: “Some people compare one of the other candidates to John F. Kennedy. But he was assassinated. And Lyndon Baines Johnson was the one who actually” passed the civil rights legislation.
The comment, an apparent reference to Senator Barack Obama, is particularly striking given documented fears among blacks that Mr. Obama will be assassinated if elected.
Ouch...that's got to sting for the Clinton camp. However, a few hours later came this report from Major Garrett.
Clinton also said Obama and Edwards have acted like hypocrites during the race and appeared to diminish the role Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. played in the civil rights movements, saying it wasn’t hope that King inspired that made the difference but President Lyndon Johnson’s decision to fight for and sign the Civil Rights Act into law.
So MLK's leadership in the Civil Rights Movement wasn't what led to the Civil Rights Act, it was LBJ all along! All those marches, the beatdowns by riot police...it was really pointless. Blacks could've stayed at home, because LBJ was going to give it to them, anyway!
That's American History in Hillary's world.
(h/t NY Times Caucus Blog, The Bourbon Room)
Dem Majority in State Senate is a Bit Shaky
So says Ben over at Not Larry Sabato. Looks like Senator-Elect John Miller (1st District - Newport News) has to explain a few things. For instance, like paying Andrew Shannon over $10K for 15 days worth of work, which seems to be mostly GOTV (get out the vote) work. That's an awful large sum for such a short span of work.
While the source is very questionable, the allegations seem to stick somewhat...due to the nature of the allegations. According to Ben in the comments section of his post, the U.S. Attorney's office in Norfolk is already investigating this.
While trivial, it should be noted that Chuck Colgan (29th District - Manassas) may be slapped on the wrist for failing to display the "Paid for..." disclaimer on some electronic signs put up around his district, which is a violation of election law. This, of course, is also rumor and nothing more at this point.
If Miller were to be found guilty and ousted from his post, this could turn the 21-19 Democratic majority in the State Senate to 20-20, with the Republicans becoming the majority due to Lt. Governor Bill Bolling being the tiebreaker.
While the source is very questionable, the allegations seem to stick somewhat...due to the nature of the allegations. According to Ben in the comments section of his post, the U.S. Attorney's office in Norfolk is already investigating this.
While trivial, it should be noted that Chuck Colgan (29th District - Manassas) may be slapped on the wrist for failing to display the "Paid for..." disclaimer on some electronic signs put up around his district, which is a violation of election law. This, of course, is also rumor and nothing more at this point.
If Miller were to be found guilty and ousted from his post, this could turn the 21-19 Democratic majority in the State Senate to 20-20, with the Republicans becoming the majority due to Lt. Governor Bill Bolling being the tiebreaker.
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