Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Dem Majority in State Senate is a Bit Shaky

So says Ben over at Not Larry Sabato. Looks like Senator-Elect John Miller (1st District - Newport News) has to explain a few things. For instance, like paying Andrew Shannon over $10K for 15 days worth of work, which seems to be mostly GOTV (get out the vote) work. That's an awful large sum for such a short span of work.

While the source is very questionable, the allegations seem to stick somewhat...due to the nature of the allegations. According to Ben in the comments section of his post, the U.S. Attorney's office in Norfolk is already investigating this.

While trivial, it should be noted that Chuck Colgan (29th District - Manassas) may be slapped on the wrist for failing to display the "Paid for..." disclaimer on some electronic signs put up around his district, which is a violation of election law. This, of course, is also rumor and nothing more at this point.

If Miller were to be found guilty and ousted from his post, this could turn the 21-19 Democratic majority in the State Senate to 20-20, with the Republicans becoming the majority due to Lt. Governor Bill Bolling being the tiebreaker.

George Allen NOT Going to Run for Governor

He announced this earlier today.

Which is fine, with Attorney General Bob McDonnell and Lt. Governor Bill Bolling looking at bids for the GOP nomination, we don't need any more contention. McDonnell and Bolling are both pretty popular across the state as-is.

Joe Gibbs to Announce Retirement Later Today...?

That's what we believe today's 3 pm press conference will be about.

Kudos to Gibbs, who took the Redskins to more playoff appearances in 4 years (2) than they had managed in the previous 12 (1).

Rumor has it Bill Cowher is going to succeed Gibbs, and has even been taking his daughter around local universities (GMU, GW) on recruiting trips, as she is a high school basketball star.

We shall see...

Monday, January 7, 2008

Bob Marshall is Running for Senate, but Will I Endorse Him?

This was noted in multiple blogs today.

I'm still a bit torn between Marshall and Gilmore. The Bloggers for Marshall have done a good job courting my attention and pointing to a lot of Marshall's high points (especially here, here, and here). I waited to see if any Gilmore supporters would respond, and lately I've seen responses from Spank That Donkey (See here and here).

So, who am I going to endorse? The former Governor and Presidential Candidate, or the 13th District Delegate from Prince William County?

I'm going to allow the debate to continue on...but I'll make my own decision by the end of the week.

Breaking Down The Battlegrounds

At this time, the current electoral landscape looks as follows...

Republicans - 142 electoral votes from 18 states are safe.
(Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina)

Democrats - 211 electoral votes from 14 states and D.C. are safe.
(Hawaii, California, D.C., Washington, Oregon, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, Maine)

That leaves 179 electoral votes and 18 states still considered "swing" or "battleground" states. Lets take a look at them from a generic "Republican vs. Democrat" standpoint.

Arkansas - Went for Clinton in 92 and 96 (for obvious reasons), Bush in 2000 and 04. Although Democrats control the Governor's mansion and the State Legislature, most pundits agree that the Democrats in Arkansas are much more conservative than the national party. Given the fact that no Dem candidate is from the state, and the "red" swing of the state in presidential elections, I'd say that this state is Republican-leaning. (6 electoral votes)

Colorado - Used to be a GOP stronghold, but Democratic politicians have made big gains here. The DNC is holding it's national convention in Denver this year, as to attract swing voters. However, the strong sentiments against illegal immigration and the generally conservative stance of the state's residents on 2nd Amendment rights and social issues may tip this state to the GOP. Slightly Republican-leaning. (9 electoral votes)

Florida - The point of contention in 2000, but went to Bush by a wider margin in 2004. The large Hispanic population would normally work against the Republicans, except a large portion of them are Cubans, who vote Republican. Also, Governor Charlie Crist is very popular in this state, and while it will be close, I'd put this state down as Republican-leaning. (27 electoral votes)

Indiana - Like Colorado, the GOP once counted on this state as a solid Republican state. However, they suffer from an unpopular Republican governor and a somewhat-stagnant state economy. However, the state has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. This state is officially a Toss-Up. (11 electoral votes)

Iowa - The Hawkeye State has swung back and forth over the past few elections. Democrats have made impressive gains as of late in the state legislature, governor's mansion, and House of Representatives. Despite the large rural population and socially conservative base within the state, I believe Iowa may trend blue this election. Slightly Democratic-leaning. (7 electoral votes)

Kentucky - Democrats picked up the Governor's mansion a few months ago, but this state still is representated by Mitch McConnell and Jim Bunning in the U.S. Senate, and with the job McConnell has done by being a stand-up minority leader in the Senate, the Republicans will get plenty of support here. Republican-leaning. (8 electoral votes)

Michigan - A Democratic stronghold in previous years, but the severe increase in unpopularity amongst state Democrats (especially Governor Jennifer Granholm, at 32% last month) makes this state competitive for the Republicans, especially with the large amount of time Mitt Romney has spent campaigning in the state (which has been otherwise ignored up to this point). However, the Northern Peninsula is very leftward leaning and so is the city of Detroit, which should keep the state as Democratic-leaning. (17 electoral votes)

Minnesota - A tradition of leaning-leftward has moderated itself lately. The election of Senator Norm Coleman in 2003, the re-election of Governor Tim Pawlenty in 2006, and the fact that the GOP is holding it's national convention in St. Paul makes Minnesota a key battleground state where a surprise could take place. Another key fact is the conservative shift that has taken place in Minneapolis/St. Paul and it's suburbs. This state is an official toss-up. (10 electoral votes)

Missouri - The bellweather state of the nation, or so they say, as the state has voted for the eventual winner of every presidential election an astounding 96% of the time. The state went for Bush in 2000 and 2004, but elected Claire McCaskill to the Senate in 2006, although her approval/disapproval rate is pretty evenly split, as well. The mood in the state is a very split one, and that makes the "Show-Me" state a toss-up. (11 electoral votes)

Nevada - Usually a Republican-leaning state in presidential elections, it is also home to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and and very unpopular governor in Jim Gibbons (whose approval rating is under 30%). While Reid is a very powerful figure in Washington, he's carrying a "disapproval" rating of 51% in his home state. Nevada just seems very discontent with their politicians right now. The winner of this state will not hinge on party lines, but on which candidates are nominated. That makes Nevada a toss-up. (5 electoral votes)

New Hampshire - Reverse situation of Arkansas. A formerly Republican state that went Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. While the Republicans are the slightly more-powerful party in New Hampshire, they tend to be more liberal than the national GOP stance. Given the independent nature of the state, I think only one or two GOP candidates have a chance to win here. I'm going to go with a Slight Democratic-Lean here. (4 electoral votes)

New Mexico - Bill Richardson is Governor here, the state's Congressional representation slightly leans Republican overall, and this state went Gore in 2000 and Bush in 04, but both elections were narrowly contested. Both parties will be pushing hard in New Mexico, as popular Senator Pete Domenici is retiring, and his seat will be up for grabs in the 2008 election. While the Democrats are pushing for capturing more states in the West, New Mexico is the only Western state that can be classified as a Democratic-Lean. (5 electoral votes)

Ohio - The state that gave Bush the election in 2004, Ohio is once again in play this time around. The state elected a Democratic Governor and Senator in 2006. However, the election of Bob Latta in the 5th Congressional District special election, where the Democrats had made heavy investments, proves that the GOP is still very much alive and well in the state. Right now, given their recent victory and the general demographics and viewpoints of the state's voters, Ohio ranks as a Slight Republican-Lean. (20 electoral votes)

Tennessee - If Fred Thompson is on the ballot, the GOP wins easily as he is stomping the Democrats in head-to-head matchup polls within the state by margins of 10-15 points. Otherwise it's pretty much a toss-up. The state went to Clinton in 92 and 96, and Bush in 00 and 04. Outside of a Thompson candidacy, the vote will be pretty close, but should still remain a Republican-Lean. (11 electoral votes)

Virginia - Despite the election of Kaine/Webb/2007 State Senate in recent years, presidential elections are a different thing. Unlike conventional wisdom that says that a strong Dem candidate will help those downballot, Mark Warner's Senate run will help the Dem candidate upballot. The election of Rob Wittman in the 1st Congressional District special election, and the fact that Tidewater Dems won on mostly centrist or moderate platforms means that the Dem gains do not help the generally more liberal presidential nominees. It won't be easy, nor will it be a blowout, but this state is still a Republican-Lean. (13 electoral votes)

West Virginia - Once a solid-blue state due to the strong labor union presence in the coal mines, this state went for Bush in 2000 and 2004, a lot of which was due to Al Gore's complete blowoff of the miners during his campaign. The growing environmentalist presence within the Democratic Party does not help, as there is an anti-coal activism that undermines the purpose of the miner's employment. However, the strong labor union presence could offset this for the Dems. That makes "Wild and Wonderful" West Virginia a truly "Wild and Wonderful" toss-up. (5 electoral votes)

Wisconsin - Went to Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004, but by very close margins in both elections. Many believe that, much like neighboring Minnesota, the GOP has a good opportunity to snatch up this state. However, the state also is steeped in "Progressive" history, being the home state of Robert LaFollette. Also, the state has a largely Democratic delegation to Congress as well as within the state. That leaves this state as a Slight Democratic-Lean. (10 electoral votes)

Final Tally

Republicans - 148 safe + 94 Lean = 242 Electoral votes (Total States = 25)
Democrats - 211 safe + 43 Lean = 254 Electoral votes (Total States = 20 + DC)
Toss-Up = 42 Electoral votes (5 states)

This is where things get really interesting in this scenario...5 states decide the vote in a generic ballot. The Dems need 16 electoral votes to win, the Republicans need 28. 4 of the 5 states have voted for Bush most recently (or 32 of the 42 toss up electoral votes, if you look at it that way). Unless something drastic happens, this will be a very close election either way.

Looks like it's going to be a long, hot summer and a very brutal fall in the battleground states.

Romney Wins Wyoming GOP Caucus, Fred Comes in Second

In a caucus that was widely ignored until the last 2 days before it occurred, Mitt Romney picked up 8 delegates in the Wyoming Caucus. Fred Thompson finished second and picked up 2 delegates, and Duncan Hunter finished a surprising third and picked up his first delegate of the primary season.

Romney now leads Mike Huckabee for total delegates, so far, and should widen that lead as he is expected to do much better in New Hampshire tomorrow than Huckabee is.

Wyoming only had a handful of delegates at stake due to the fact that the GOP stripped them of half of their delegates as a penalty for holding the caucus so early.

Sunday, January 6, 2008

"New Hampshire" = "Nasty Heat" for Candidates

These were the best debates, so far. Charles Gibson did a good job moderating the debate, and the format was much more of a "debate" and less of a "question and answer" session. Kudos to ABC, and the "unity" moment of having all the candidates from both parties greet each other onstage between debates was a nice touch.

Diane Sawyer, though, really seemed out of place in the whole scheme of things. Anyway, on to my thoughts.

On the GOP side...

- Fred Thompson had an excellent debate, and even George Stephanopoulos said so in his post-debate comments. He put Romney on the spot without attacking him (and forced Romney, on one occasion, to completely waffle on a question), handled Ron Paul like nobody else has done, and had a generally good overall performance. He seemed very comfortable in this debate, was on-point with his policies, and answered questions directly. Also, I noticed that more candidates said "Yes, Senator Thompson is right..." and would go on to repeat Fred's words. That's because Fred is correct.

- Mitt Romney was attacked by everyone on stage in some way, shape, or form. I must say that Romney handled most of the criticism well, considering the bombardment of attacks from many sides, especially from John McCain. McCain, while having some good quips, seemed more intent on spitting out a "zinger", then flashing a silly grin right before they cut away from him. His performance was a bit forced, in my opinion.

- Huckabee was almost non-existant for long stretches, playing the "let them knock each other out" card. Good job by Charles Gibson not to allow that to go on forever. Giuliani had a relatively strong performance. He made his stances fairly clear, pointed to his record of law enforcement and economic turnaround in New York City, and deflecting criticism for being more liberal in his policies in the past.

- Ron Paul did a good job espousing his views, but also took more heat than normal, probably because he's a more serious threat than most of the other candidates realized. He got burned by Fred on the "money-printing/Iraq War/health care" tie-in that Paul stretched to make.

On the Dem side...

- All 4 candidates had relatively decent nights, nobody had a "bad" night. However, if anyone should come out of this looking better than before, it's Bill Richardson. He was on a much more level playing field in terms of speaking time, and made good use of it. Richardson will probably give Hillary more problems than Obama and Edwards, and Richardson appeals to the "experience" base of the Democratic Party.

- Obama is really pushing for the Independent/Republican cross-over vote. He made a point to address them as necessary to create a majority consensus for his policies. Unless someone like Huckabee gets nominated, I don't see many Republicans crossing over.

- As usual, more "anti-Republican" sentiments from the Dems than "anti-Democrat" sentiments from the GOP. In fact, the only time the GOP addressed the Dems was when they were asked to compare themselves to Barack Obama. The Dem candidates had a habit of bringing up "those horrible Republicans" when they needed a rallying point...instead of rallying around what they stand for.

- Hillary had a stronger debate than the previous few debates she took part in. However, Obama was solid and Edwards also had a stronger-than-normal debate. None of which helps her in the long run.

The Ride is Over...

...but it was fun while it lasted.

The Redskins late-season surge ended with a 35-14 loss to the Seattle Seahawks yesterday. Though they lost by 21 points, the game was much closer than the score indicates.

Both teams found yardage hard to come by, but the Seahawks were able to turn an early advantage in field position into 13 points in the first 3 quarters.

Down 13-0 as the 4th Quarter started, Todd Collins found Antwaan Randle-El for a 7 yard touchdown pass to bring the Redskins within 6. Suddenly, Safety LaRon Landry invoked images of the fallen Sean Taylor, intercepting a Matt Hasselbeck pass 2 plays later to set up a 30-yard Collins-to-Santana Moss touchdown, and give the Redskins a 14-13 lead.

The Redskins got a gift when Nate Burleson failed to catch the ensuing kickoff and the Skins recovered. However, the drive stalled and the normally-reliable Shawn Suisham missed a 30-yard field goal by mere inches. The Seahawks moved down the field, but Landry picked off his second pass of the day, but the Redskins failed to move the ball, and poor punt by Derrick Frost allowed provided the Seahawks with both good field position and momentum. Seattle promptly drove down the field and scored a touchdown with a 2-point conversion to take the 21-14 lead with just over 6 minutes remaining in the game.

Todd Collins tried to will the Redskins back down the field, but overthrew Santana Moss on a long sideline pass, and Marcus Trufant picked off the floater and returned it 78 yards for a touchdown. With 27 seconds left, Collins was intercepted again by Jordan Babineaux, who returned the pick 57 yards for the final score.

Collins should be lauded for his efforts, and went 29-50 for 266 yards and two touchdowns and two interceptions. Clinton Portis found no room to run, gaining 52 yards on 20 carries, but added 28 yards on 4 receptions. Antwaan Randle-El caught 10 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown, and Moss added 6 catches for 68 yards and a touchdown. All-Pro TE Chris Cooley had a quiet afternoon, snagging 5 catches for 46 yards.

Credit the Redskins for not giving up when down, just like they never gave up when they were sitting with a record of 5-7 and playoff hopes were bleak. This team has shown a lot of heart and character throughout the season, and should be a strong contender next year with a mature Jason Campbell and a young-but-battled-tested core of players.

In last night's other playoff game, the Jacksonville Jaguars upended the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-29 in an incredible game that saw the Steelers come back from 18 points down in the 4th Quarter to take the lead, only to have Jacksonville kick the game winning field goal with 37 seconds left.