Election Day Cometh - Prediction Time! (House of Delegates)

Less than a week until Election Day, so it's time for predictions! First up, the key races in the Virginia House of Delegates...

"**" Denotes incumbent.

Red = Republican, Blue = Democrat, Orange = Independent


5th District
- Bill Carrico** vs. Susan Dixon-Garner
This has been a competitive race that has flown under the radar for the most part. The demographics in the district may split fairly evenly, but Carrico hasn't really done much to push support away. Both have run solid campaigns, slight fundraising edge to Carrico in a low-money race. I'll take the incumbent here.
Prediction: Carrico 54%, Dixon-Garner 46% (GOP Hold)


7th District
- Peggy Frank vs. Dave Nutter**
This was initially supposed to be a Dem victory, for reasons I'm unsure of. Nutter is much like Carrico in the sense that hasn't done much to lose, except this district leans GOP more so than Carrico's district does. Frank hasn't raised the kinds of funds she was expected to raise, and Nutter should hold onto this seat.
Prediction: Nutter 55%, Frank 45% (GOP Hold)

9th District
- Eric Ferguson vs. Charles Poindexter vs. Jerry Boothe
This is for Allen Dudley's old district. Ferguson lost to Dudley in 2005, but managed to retain a significant amount of money for this race. He's also outraised Poindexter signifcantly. Poindexter has put up a good fight, and has put in the work necessary to be competitive, but in the end, I see Ferguson taking this seat by a few points. Boothe won't factor in much here.
Prediction: Ferguson 51%, Poindexter 48%, Boothe 1% (Dem Pickup)

13th District
- Bob Marshall** vs. Bruce Roemmelt
This race had all the makings of something really competitive. However, Roemmelt could never seem to get his fundraising shifted into the next gear (for whatever reason), and Marshall has a solid base of support in this district.
Prediction: B. Marshall 57%, Roemmelt 43% (GOP Hold)


14th District
- Danny Marshall** vs. Adam Tomer
This is the first real "toss-up", as it's hard to get a read on this district. Tomer has out-raised and out-campaigned Marshall overall, but Marshall has voting demographics going in his favor. Incumbency splits the difference, here. Marshall in a squeaker.
Prediction: D. Marshall 51%, Tomer 49% (GOP Hold)

16th District
- Donald Merricks vs. Andy Parker
This is the seat formerly held by Robert Hurt. Merricks has run a solid campaign, and has outraised Parker. Combine that with a fundraising advantage and this race that some thought would be competitive turns into a solid win for Merricks.
Prediction: Merricks 56 %, Parker 44%(GOP Hold)

21st District
- John Welch** vs. Bob Mathieson
This race will really come down to the wire. Both raised funds well, Welch has an incumbency edge, but it seems like Mathieson has ran the slightly more effective campaign. This could go either way, but it seems like Mathieson may squeak this one out.
Prediction: Mathieson 51%, Welch 49% (Dem Pickup)

26th District
- Matt Lohr** vs. Carolyn Frank
I'm doing this race because it's relatively local and a hot topic at Republitarian, not because it's going to be anything close. Unless Lohr decides to drop out due to his wife's illness, he's got this one in the bag. Myron Rhodes said that Frank was running a "Jim Webb-style" campaign. To which I replied "so she's going to wait for her opponent to say 'macaca' and film it?" It never happened, and she's got no chance of winning.
Prediction: Lohr 61%, Frank 39% (GOP Hold)

32nd District
- David Poisson** vs. Lynn Chapman
Early on, I thought this would be a close race. I think Lynn Chapman will be in the General Assembly soon enough. However, Poisson has too many advantages going for him, a lot of those advantages involve money. Chapman's efforts will make this a closer race than most candidates would have made it.
Prediction: Poisson 56%, Chapman 44% (Dem Hold)

33rd District
- Joe May** vs. Marty Martinez
Reverse of the 32nd District race above. I thought this would be a closer race than it's going to turn out to be. May's fundraising and incumbent status will pull through for him in a pretty solid conservative district.
Prediction: May 58%, Martinez 42% (GOP Hold)


34th District
- Dave Hunt vs. Margi Vanderhye
This seat currently belongs to the now-retiring Vince Callahan. While many see this as a possible blowout, I don't. While Hunt raised a significant amount of money, the fundraising edge goes to Vanderhye, but a lot of that came and went during a pretty tough primary. Both have run excellent campaigns, in my opinion. However, this election pits the Democratic momentum in NoVa vs. Callahan's previous popularity and Hunt's tough campaigning. In the end, the demographics should have it in this district.
Prediction: Vanderhye 53%, Hunt 47% (Dem Pickup)


40th District
- Tim Hugo** vs. Rex Simmons
While Rex Simmons has a great name to play on (Sex Rimmons, lol), Hugo should walk away from this one pretty solidly. Fundraising has been close, but Hugo has solid support and an incumbency advantage. Simmons, on the other hand, had to deal with a challenge from Morris Meyer that seemed to sap some of his campaign strength over the summer.
Prediction: Hugo 55%, Simmons 45% (GOP Hold)

50th District
- Jackson Miller** vs. Jeannette Rishell
These two did this dance a year ago in a special election for the same seat. Miller won last year, and should have no problem doing so again this year. Rishell edges Miller in fundraising, but has had to spend more money, too...and Miller is still the favorite.
Prediction: Miller 53%, Rishell 47% (GOP Hold)


51st District
- Faisal Gill vs. Paul Nichols
This is for the open seat held previously by Michele McQuigg. This race has been very hotly contested and controversial since the GOP convention this past spring that narrowly chose Gill over Julie Lucas, where Gill barely slipped by Lucas amidst allegations of ineligible delegates at the convention. However, despite his "honest man" persona...he hasn't really said much in terms of how he plans to improve the district and the state. Given the mood in Prince William County, Gill should edge by on this one.
Prediction: Gill 51%, Nichols 49% (GOP Hold)

59th District
- Watkins Abbitt Jr.** vs. Connie Brennan
Abbitt has represented this district since 1986. His family name goes back very far in rural south-central Virginia. Abbitt has long-shed his father's not-so-great legacy and has become a staple of Virginia politics. Brennan poses the biggest threat to his seat since he was voted into office, and has outraised him by a decent margin...but let's be honest, Abbitt will probably hold onto this seat as long as he wants.
Prediction: Abbitt 55%, Brennan 45% (Independent Hold)

67th District
- Chuck Caputo** vs. Marc Cadin
The "God-Like Figure", Chuck Caputo, should prove himself to be mighty mortal in this race. Caputo's got a great warchest from his previous campaigns. However, Cadin has been working very hard in this district and putting in the effort. Cadin put himself on an even keel over the summer, and has been right there with Caputo ever since.
Prediction: Cadin 51%, Caputo 49% (GOP Pickup)


68th District
- Katherine Waddell** vs. Manoli Loupassi vs. Bill Grogan
Loupassi is one of the most energetic and motivated GOP candidates out there. Loupassi has been a fundraising machine, as well. Waddell is a left-leaning independent incumbent who finally woke up late in the race and has made her surge towards making this competitive. She also did not really "wow" voters in her last campaign, either. Grogan may get a point or two, but that's about it. Loupassi in a romp, this will not be as close as some think it will be.
Prediction: Loupassi 54%, Waddell 44%, Grogan 2% (GOP Pickup)


83rd District
- Chris Stolle vs. Joe Bouchard
Bouchard has been a little more efficient in his campaigning. But this is the Tidewater area, and this is a Stolle running for office, and this district leans GOP. This is also Leo Wardrup's old seat, and Wardrup was a pretty popular delegate himself. Bodes well for Stolle going into next week's elections.
Prediction: Stolle 54%, Bouchard 46% (GOP Hold)


86th District
- Tom Rust** vs. Jay Donahue
Pure demographics would say that Rust should lose this district. However, he enjoys a good deal of crossover popularity. Donahue has proven to be a solid campaigner, but Rust has killed him in fundraising and should hold on to this seat. What makes this race close is pure demographics.
Prediction: Rust 53%, Donahue 47% (GOP Hold)


87th District
- Paula Miller** vs. Hank Giffin
Miller has run a lackluster and uninspired campaign. Hank Giffin is a former admiral who has run pretty hard against the incumbent. The demographics lean slightly in Giffin's favor if you look at the recent voting trends, too. While many favor Miller to hold on, I think Giffin edges Miller in an upset.
Prediction: Giffin 52%, Miller 48% (GOP Pickup)



88th District
- Mark Cole** vs. Carlos del Toro
Cole has incumbency and a decent amount of popularity on his side. Del Toro has been raising money like mad...but really hasn't been "out there" and getting in touch with the voters in his district. The Dems have invested a lot of money in winning this race, mainly to influence things up-ballot. However, I don't think Carlos will deliver in this district, and will get edged out by Cole in the end.
Prediction: Cole 52%, del Toro 48% (GOP Hold)


96th District
- Brenda Pogge vs. Troy Farlow vs. Pamela Pouchot
Pouchot is counted out, as she is a late entry with no real purpose in this race. Farlow has run a decent, if unspectacular campaign. However, Pogge has demographics and a slight money edge on her side, as this is the seat that belonged to the retiring Melanie Rapp.
Prediction: Pogge 53%, Farlow 47%, Pouchot 0% (GOP Hold)

There you have it...the key State Senate races should be up later today or tomorrow.