Election Day Cometh - Prediction Time! (State Senate)

Complementing the H.O.D. predictions from earlier today, here's my predictions on the State Senate.

"**" Denotes incumbent.

Red = Republican, Blue = Democrat, Orange = Independent, Green = Libertarian

1st District
- Tricia Stall vs. John Miller
This is an intensely close race. Miller got started late, in my opinion, but has been running really hard since he got going, and he has had good backing from the DPVA. Stall is a very "hard-right" candidate in a moderate-right district. However, she has stanch GOP support, and upended the current seatholder, Marty Williams, in the June primaries. Stall's far-right stance may not play well in this area, and the more moderate Miller should slip by.
Prediction: Miller 51%, Stall 49% (Dem Pickup)

6th District
- Nick Rerras** vs. Ralph Northam
Another district where Democratic money has been brought in by the truckload. Northam has a great background that could appeal to voters. However, Rerras is well-liked in a Republican-leaning district. He's put in the effort during this campaign season as well, and his efforts should pay off with a narrow victory.
Prediction: Rerras 52%, Northam 48% (GOP Hold)

13th District
- Fred Quayle** vs. Steve Heretick
While there are a few Dems that believe this is going to be a win for them...it just isn't going to happen. Heretick has raised some funds, and would probably win if the district were more Democratic-leaning. Quayle wins rather easily.
Prediction: Quayle 57%, Heretick 43% (GOP Hold)

20th District

- Roscoe Reynolds** vs. Jeff Evans
Roscoe has incumbency and experience on his side. However, the feeling I get from the 20th is that many people are sick and tired of him. Hiring Joe Stanley's firm to help drive his campaign, and his subsequent attempts to avoid admitting that he did so further fueled the grassroots. I really see Evans slipping by in a big upset.
Prediction: Evans 51%, Reynolds 49% (GOP Pickup)

22nd District
- Ralph Smith vs. Mike Breiner
This should be interesting. Ralph Smith has the experience and name recognition in this area due to being the former mayor of Roanoke, and he also defeated current Senator Brandon Bell in the June primary. The area leans Republican, and Mike Breiner is only just getting funds from the DPVA and other Dem sources. This should close the race some, but Smith should win this district.
Prediction: Smith 54%, Breiner 46% (GOP Hold)


24th District
- Emmett Hanger** vs. David Cox vs. Arin Sime
Ah, this district. The GOP primary was a firefight of the political kind. Sime will have more traction than any other 3rd party candidate in this entire election that isn't already sitting in office. Cox has been very unimpressive and disappointing with his fundraising after a good showing against Ben Cline in a House of Delegates race two years ago. In the end, I think a plurality of the vote tips towards Hanger.
Prediction: Hanger 44%, Sime 32%, Cox 24% (GOP Hold)


26th District
- Mark Obenshain** vs. Maxine Hope Roles
This is the district that the Podium is voting in, hence the only reason this race is mentioned. Obenshain is well-liked, well-established, and well-qualified to represent this district. Maxine Roles may have had "Hope" in her name, but not in this race.
Prediction: Obenshain 69%, Roles 31% (GOP Hold)


27th District
- Jill Holtzman-Vogel vs. Karen Schultz vs. Donald Marro
While Marro's fundraising has been quietly impressive, it comes down to Schultz vs. Holtzman-Vogel. Vogel has everything going for her. Name recognition in Schultz's base, incredible fundraising, and a wide variety of endorsements. Schultz has had less baggage, in part because she did not have a primary to go through. However, considering the smashing win Vogel had in the GOP primary over the man who, 4 years ago, nearly took out current Senator Russ Potts(purple for the extreme RINO status)...Vogel should have this in the bag.
Prediction: Vogel 55%, Schultz 44%, Marro 1% (GOP Hold)



28th District
- Richard Stuart vs. Albert Pollard
This is John Chichester's old seat, and the primary to find a replacement was a hot one. The moderate candidate was selected, and he has run hard against his Democratic opponent. Chichester's RINO status favors neither man, but other recent voting trends in the district favors Stuart.
Prediction: Stuart 52%, Pollard 48% (GOP Hold)


29th District
- Chuck Colgan** vs. Bob Fitzsimmonds
Fitzsimmonds has been pushing HARD and has run a great campaign. Colgan may be the long-established incumbent but has very little else going in his favor. Fitzsimmonds is seen as a potential star in the future of the GOP by many, and he has acted like he wants to live up to that potential, so far. Voting trends really favor Fitzsimmonds as well.
Prediction: Fitzsimmonds 53%, Colgan 47% (GOP Pickup)

33rd District
- Mark Herring** vs. Patricia Phillips
This race had turned very competitive as Phillips built up momentum after her surprising win in the May GOP primary. However, as the late summer wore on, Herring regained his footing and should open up a bit of distance over Phillips. Credit the GOP for making this more of a race than it initially was supposed to be.
Prediction: Herring 55%, Phillips 45% (Dem Hold)

34th District
- Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis** vs. Chap Petersen
*sigh*, this race has worn me out. It's the "big money" race for both sides. Davis, self-described "RINO" and the wife of current Congressman Tom Davis, has represented this area since 2003, when she upended Ron Christian. Chap(!) is a former member of the House of Delegates, and is one of the most conservative Democrats in the state (well, conservative FOR a Democrat). This race has been all over the place, has seen the grassroots on both sides working in overdrive, and has had it's share of memorable (or not-so-memorable) moments. In the end, I think demographics and anti-JMDD motivation give Chap the edge.
Prediction: Petersen 52%, Devolites-Davis 48% (Dem Pickup)

37th District
- Ken Cuccinelli** vs. Janet Oleszek
Talk about some real opposites here. You have the pretty hard-right Cuccinelli against the pretty hard-left Oleszek. Cuccinelli is a polarizing figure. You either love him or hate him. Fortunately, Oleszek is the same way, but the demographics don't favor Cuccinelli. Of course, having a campaign site that looks like an ode to the former Soviet Union doesn't help Oleszek and her leftist stances much at all. Oleszek's money makes this pretty close, but Cuccinelli should win this because Oleszek is a poor candidate and a bland figure.
Prediction: Cuccinelli 53%, Oleszek 47% (GOP Hold)

39th District
- Jay O'Brien** vs. George Barker
George Barker has a penchant for ugly races, apparently. Between his nasty little primary battle with Greg Galligan and now his dogfight with O'Brien, it seems Barker can't keep himself out of the mud. The demographics tilt in Barker's favor, but O'Brien is the incumbent and Barker seems out of touch with his party's voters...even though this is a district where the rise in popularity amongst Democrats statewide could carry him to a fairly un-earned victory..
Prediction: Barker 51%, O'Brien 49% (Dem Pickup)

There you have it...The Podium's Predictions on the 2007 Virginia State Election.