When Chris Graham and I agree on something, you know it's gotta be rock solid stuff, because we disagree quite often.
Chris gives his opinion that this race is Sayre's to lose.
I especially agree with his last few paragraphs. Primaries are mostly about turnout, and Sayre's campaign and platform are generated towards generating higher turnout, which will definitely favor the challenger in this primary. Graham also states that, even though the Dems have a better shot at upsetting Sayre than Hanger due to Sayre's lack of political experience, he believes Sayre would be the favorite heading into November's general elections.
I do have to pose this scenario for discussion. You currently have Will Hvorat to be the Democratic candidate, and Arin Sime running as a Libertarian candidate. Let's say Sayre wins the primary (which I actually expect he will do). You have an interesting situation unfolding.
Arin Sime is running on a similar "anti-tax" platform as Sayre, but has kept quiet since he has no primary to compete in. Sime could eat into Sayre's base a little bit. At the same time, Sime's socially-moderate stances could very well eat into Hvorat's base of moderate Democrats.
So, Hvorat will get a lot of solid-left support. Sayre will get the solid-right support, and what's left in the middle will Sime's...but Sime will be able to pull even by grabbing a few Democrat and a few Republican voters.
That's what will make this race so interesting.
So while I'm not endorsing Sayre, I do believe that this primary is his to lose. And frankly, given that there are some things I don't like about Emmett Hanger...I'm not broken up about that at all.