Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Chris Graham and I Agree on Scott Sayre

When Chris Graham and I agree on something, you know it's gotta be rock solid stuff, because we disagree quite often.

Chris gives his opinion that this race is Sayre's to lose.

I especially agree with his last few paragraphs. Primaries are mostly about turnout, and Sayre's campaign and platform are generated towards generating higher turnout, which will definitely favor the challenger in this primary. Graham also states that, even though the Dems have a better shot at upsetting Sayre than Hanger due to Sayre's lack of political experience, he believes Sayre would be the favorite heading into November's general elections.

I do have to pose this scenario for discussion. You currently have Will Hvorat to be the Democratic candidate, and Arin Sime running as a Libertarian candidate. Let's say Sayre wins the primary (which I actually expect he will do). You have an interesting situation unfolding.

Arin Sime is running on a similar "anti-tax" platform as Sayre, but has kept quiet since he has no primary to compete in. Sime could eat into Sayre's base a little bit. At the same time, Sime's socially-moderate stances could very well eat into Hvorat's base of moderate Democrats.

So, Hvorat will get a lot of solid-left support. Sayre will get the solid-right support, and what's left in the middle will Sime's...but Sime will be able to pull even by grabbing a few Democrat and a few Republican voters.

That's what will make this race so interesting.

So while I'm not endorsing Sayre, I do believe that this primary is his to lose. And frankly, given that there are some things I don't like about Emmett Hanger...I'm not broken up about that at all.


Chris said...

I think Sime's campaign ends up suffering horribly from a Sayre win over Hanger on June 12 - because of the third-party-vote factor, wherein voters who might otherwise be inclined to vote for a third-party candidate decide to hold their nose and vote for one of the two major-party candidates because they think their first choice has no shot at winning.
Not that there would be any public polls reported on in this race, but if there were, it wouldn't surprise me to see Sime running in the 10- to 15-percent range maybe as late as Labor Day (in a Sime-Sayre-Hrovat three-way), but end up somewhere in the 5-percent-or-less range on Election Day.
That said, a Sime-Hanger-Hrovat race is one that I think Sime can perhaps win - if, if, if (I won't go into all the ifs here).

Phil Chroniger said...

I'm on the fence about Sime's chances against Sayre and Hvorat. Sime could pretty well place himself on level ground with Sayre and Hvorat, since neither has experience at this level of politics.

Then again, Sime's whole campaign was started upon "remove Emmett Hanger", if Hanger doesn't even make it out of the primary, that's already been accomplished, and the no-tax voters will find two candidates in Sayre and Sime who support what they want.

It depends on whether the mood of the third-party voters...are they "pro-Sime" or simply "anti-Hanger"?