Thursday, January 3, 2008

It All Comes Down to This

Iowa is but an hour or so away...the Democratic caucuses across the Hawkeye state will begin at 6:30, the GOP caucuses will begin at 7:00. By 7:30, the first results should start coming in.

Given that only 250,000 people are expected to caucus tonight, polls may mean everything or nothing. The latest poll to come out (Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby) looks as follows...

Dems - Obama 31%, Edwards 27%, Clinton 24%, Richardson 7%, Biden 5%, Dodd 1%, Kucinich >1%
GOP - Huckabee 31%, Romney 25%, Thompson 11%, McCain 10%, Paul 10%, Giuliani 6%, Hunter 1%

Clinton needs to do better than that, as Obama and Edwards are on a momentum up-swing, and with Obama hanging in with Clinton in New Hampshire, a 3rd place finish would not be good for Hillary.

On the other side, Huckabee/Romney is about how most expect the caucus to finish. However, the battle for 3rd is key for momentum heading forward. Fred Thompson NEEDS a 3rd place finish to keep things going. McCain, however, does not really need it as Iowa has not been his focal point...New Hampshire, on the other hand, has been McCain's early target.

Ron Paul's 10% is really impressive, IMO. Maybe he's starting to catch on to a larger group of voters, after all.

John McIntyre has a pretty good analysis of what the major campaigns need in tonight's caucus.

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