Monday, July 16, 2007

Gilmore Gone...For Now

Ok, so Jim Gilmore is out of a presidential primary race that he really, to be honest, had no chance to win anyway. However, now the chatter is regarding a possible Gilmore run in 2008 for the retiring John Warner, or even another run at the Governor's mansion in 2009.

Either way, Gilmore evokes strong emotions on both sides of the coin. This is a gift and a curse for Gilmore, and much of his success depends on who wins the Presidency in 2008 and what kind of job they do. It also depends on who runs against him.

If a centrist Democrat ran against Gilmore, he would be in trouble. Gilmore is a solid conservative, and that stance will only help him if a Republican wins the 2008 Presidential election and manages to become at least mildly popular with the public. If a Democrat wins, Gilmore has to deal with a more left-friendly voting public.

If Gilmore draws an opponent who is a further-left Democrat, he could capitalize on that polarization, as I believe that Virginia voters (as a whole) would prefer a solid conservative over a solid liberal, if given the choice. This state is pretty much a "purple state", but it's still got heavier shades of red within that purple fabric.

Gilmore, however, has been around since the 90's as a name in the mouths of the political pundits of our state. Many believe that, in order for the GOP to have future success in Virginia, they need to bring out more "fresh faces".

Then again, we haven't seen much of Gilmore outside of the primary debates...so even though he's not a "fresh face", he's also been out of Virginia politics for quite a few years, now. Maybe Gilmore could reintroduce himself to the voting public. To be honest, it's not like there are many other GOP choices out there that aren't already stalwarts and common names in the Virginia political scene.

No comments: