Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Dem Poll Bits and Bites

Breaking down the Dem Polls.

RealClearPolitics(RCP) National Average...
- Clinton 41.3%, Obama 23.%%, Edwards 13.0%, Richardson 4.2%, Biden 2.7%.

Rasmussen Reports latest Dem poll...
- Clinton 34%, Obama 24%, Edwards 16%, Richardson 7%, Biden 3%.

The RCP average is based on almost a month's worth of poll data...the Rasmussen poll was done over the previous 3 days. Since Obama has pulled ahead in Iowa and the anti-Clinton backlash started only recently, that is why their poll is more reflective of lower Hillary numbers. Notice that Clinton lost voters to Edwards and Richardson, and not Obama. Interesting.

Let's go to the early states, the amount of delegates at stake, and their RCP averages...

Iowa (45 delegates)
- Obama 26.6%, Clinton 26.6%, Edwards 22.8%, Richardson 7.4%, Biden 5.4%
Interesting that Edwards once led in Iowa for 4 sits in third.

New Hampshire (22 delegates)
- Clinton 32.6%, Obama 23.0%, Edwards 16.0%, Richardson 9.2%
Clinton once held an average lead of over 20 points here just 2 months ago.

Michigan (128 delegates)
- Clinton 44.7%, Obama 21.7%, Edwards 13.0%, Richardson 4.3%

Nevada (25 delegates)
- Clinton 44.3%, Obama 20.7%, Edwards 12.7%, Richardson 6.3%.

South Carolina (45 delegates)
- Clinton 38.0%, Obama 25.5%, Edwards 11.3%.
You'd think Edwards would be doing better here, given his Carolina roots. Clinton's 19 point lead is now down to 12.5 points in 1 month.

Florida (185 delegates)
- Clinton 47.0%, Obama 17.5%, Edwards 11.5%.

Despite Obama pulling even (and ahead in individual polls) in Iowa, Clinton still has the commanding lead, here.

Obama's best shot at getting a big momentum boost is parlaying a victory in Iowa into a victory in New Hampshire, where he is still in relative striking distance. Otherwise, if Clinton pulls out a win in New Hampshire, she can roll downhill with victories in the other states.

However, if Iowa and New Hampshire both fall to Obama (which they are trending that way), the Clinton campaign will have some ground to make up and some momentum to regain, especially since another key early state (South Carolina) is also trending back towards Obama as well.

UPDATE: Since Kenton was nice enough to explain that Dem delegate math is more complicated than the GOP's, I removed the delegate count from here. It's too hard to project delegates for the Dems without a certain amount of research that I have neither the time nor the monetary incentive to do.


Kenton said...

The Democrats break up delegates proportionally, by congressional district, between candidates that reach 15% (but only if there is a candidate that reaches 15%, otherwise it is the leader minus 10%), plus at-larges and unpledged PLEOs.

But wait, there's more! The Iowa Caucuses merely elect delegates to the County Conventions which apportion delegates to the District Convention which apportions delegates to the...I forget the rest. Either way, the delegate math isn't as simple as adding stuff up. Democrats aren't very good at "simple".

Phil Chroniger said...

Oh, ok, so the GOP's simpler "winner take all" system in most states doesn't apply here.

Well, that certainly forces me to make some changes, now doesn't it.

I was not aware that the Dems ran on a different system, I figured they simply allocated delegates differently.